tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post1015368781199792312..comments2024-03-25T15:15:18.172+08:00Comments on Bursa Dummy: Is It Time To Invest In US Stock Market?Bursa Dummyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02242116696140987141noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-21196524852668473182021-12-28T18:45:26.639+08:002021-12-28T18:45:26.639+08:00Thanks for your useful input on CMSB. I have writt...Thanks for your useful input on CMSB. I have written about this company together with my views on it and will post up soon.Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00838785922827430371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-32567311843480654462021-12-28T15:41:19.650+08:002021-12-28T15:41:19.650+08:00CMSB has a characteristic of high price volatility...CMSB has a characteristic of high price volatility. This means if and when the sentiment of construction segment turns positive, it's price can move fast and a lot.<br />The market seems like ignoring its improved profit YoY and focus on the negative, which is poor sentiment on construction industry; resulting, CMSB's stock price continues to depress..or maybe market opines that the profit came from commodity, FeSi, will not sustain.<br /><br />It's price was at ~RM1.12 in mid Mar'20 during pandemic. It's last bottom was ~RM1.05 in Aug'21. I think it would be safe to buy if CMSB can fall down to RM1-RM1.10 level. It is still cheap at RM1.27 now. I will keep close watch and may buy in time to come.<br />If buy into CMSB, I think one has to also keep close eyes on FeSi price.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-76630869201578883412021-12-28T15:38:43.669+08:002021-12-28T15:38:43.669+08:00This comment has been removed by the author.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-37678455302690384282021-12-28T15:30:25.698+08:002021-12-28T15:30:25.698+08:00The negatives are :
i) Poor sentiment in construct...The negatives are :<br />i) Poor sentiment in construction industry and stocks. The construction-related industry may remain low in performance for longer period of time.<br />ii) The FeSi price is hard to predict, if it comes down, then CMSB's profit will be very much impacted negatively. CMSB's 9MFY21 profit was very much lifted by profit from OM Materials.<br />iii) Management guided that its Cement segment (major segment) performance will deteriorate QoQ in Q4 due to scheduled maintenance and higher clinker cost.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-77762066354057046402021-12-28T15:22:37.015+08:002021-12-28T15:22:37.015+08:00There are several positives and negatives I can ga...There are several positives and negatives I can gather on CMSB.<br />i) CMSB is cheap at RM1.27 per share @6.9x PE (calculated using 9MFY21 annualized core EPS) and 0.46x P/BV (with reported ROE = 9.8%).<br />- The fall of it's stock price from Feb'21 to 27Dec'21 is not aligned with the financial performance as annualized 9MFY21 profit is higher YoY compared to FY20. In fact, it's annualized FY21 PATAMI ranked #2 in past 6 years; it is only lower than FY18, but higher than FY16/17/19/20.<br />ii) Ferrosilicon's price remains high in Q4 FY21 (albeit lower than average price in Q3'21). This means OM Materials will continue to contribute highly to CMSB's profit.<br />iii) The lifting of MCO will benefit its construction, road maintenance, construction materials and property development segments in coming quarters.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-1617590090446209902021-12-28T15:16:58.010+08:002021-12-28T15:16:58.010+08:00"Can have a look at CMSB."
I bought and..."Can have a look at CMSB."<br /><br />I bought and disposed CMSB before in 2018/2019. I just took a re-look at its current performance vs stock price. In short, I think CMSB worth considering as it's annualized financial performance in 9MFY21 is higher YoY if compared against FY20 but its stock price has declined from RM2.40 in Feb'21 to RM1.27 now. This is a typical divergence of performance vs stock price.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-17769231730164830552021-12-28T11:41:43.654+08:002021-12-28T11:41:43.654+08:00Thanks mate, it was partly inspired by your site.Thanks mate, it was partly inspired by your site.cckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00035656035577087636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-78784221003431577692021-12-27T18:38:27.893+08:002021-12-27T18:38:27.893+08:00You have a great blog!You have a great blog!Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00838785922827430371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-45980458179199739582021-12-27T18:34:47.286+08:002021-12-27T18:34:47.286+08:00Noted. Lets see how it pan out :)Noted. Lets see how it pan out :)Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00838785922827430371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-57016586068671982252021-12-27T18:33:17.715+08:002021-12-27T18:33:17.715+08:00Can have a look at CMSB. Can have a look at CMSB. Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00838785922827430371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-22834912295188056552021-12-23T16:47:20.607+08:002021-12-23T16:47:20.607+08:00Coincidentally, I'm at the exact same situatio...Coincidentally, I'm at the exact same situation with you right now, thinking to put some of time capital into US market.<br /><br />My blog: https://cheekaan.wixsite.com/ckinvestmentblogmycckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00035656035577087636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-57288527975996920412021-12-23T09:22:33.224+08:002021-12-23T09:22:33.224+08:00I would like to add more clarity on "As you m...I would like to add more clarity on "As you mention before, next year when US raises its interest rate, local stock market may suffer." My "speculation" on US interest rate hike vs Bursa performance are as follows :<br />i) When nearing the rate hike, I speculate that US market and Bursa performances will trend down. This is due to market has negative expectation.<br />ii) But, when the rate hike is realized, I speculate that US and Bursa performance will turn upwards. This is speculated based on historical trend.<br /><br />I assume US' 1st rate hike is in mid 2022; that's why I speculate stock market may perform poorly from Mar'22 till mid 2022, and then recover and turn upwards from mid 2022 to end 2022.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-54136034466083778942021-12-23T09:21:54.669+08:002021-12-23T09:21:54.669+08:00I see, so CJCen is in your "to buy" list...I see, so CJCen is in your "to buy" list. Can I know what other stocks are in your list? Maybe I can take a look and share with u my finding and view :)value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-9145067101996950992021-12-23T09:20:15.700+08:002021-12-23T09:20:15.700+08:00This comment has been removed by the author.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-59391904546679110712021-12-22T20:59:42.815+08:002021-12-22T20:59:42.815+08:00CJ was in my watch list when it started its courie...CJ was in my watch list when it started its courier business. I tracked it until given up hope. When it planned to dispose the courier business, it's in my "to buy" list but didn't reach my desired price. Its latest QR was quite disappointing though. May be it's affected by lock down but the management didn't mention about it. I'm still following it closely. I think it has the potentialBursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00838785922827430371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-11802274178198042812021-12-22T20:40:37.299+08:002021-12-22T20:40:37.299+08:00Thanks for the YouTube sharing, it seems like smal...Thanks for the YouTube sharing, it seems like small & medium US stocks are actually suffering. I'm also considering ETFs that track US indices, but not dare to buy yet as the indices always break new high... As you mention before, next year when US raises its interest rate, local stock market may suffer. However, if stock market is predictable then it's not stock market. Lets hope for a better year.Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00838785922827430371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-80615919450291210782021-12-22T20:22:46.547+08:002021-12-22T20:22:46.547+08:00:):)Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00838785922827430371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-84609218769998725612021-12-20T09:10:28.296+08:002021-12-20T09:10:28.296+08:00By the way, I just found CJCen may be interesting....By the way, I just found CJCen may be interesting. It has disposed its loss-making courier service business on 1July'21, and turned profitable in July-Sept'21 quarter. I am almost certain that it will continue to be profitable in quarters to come with only its Total Logistics and Procurement Logistics are operating.<br />In addition, I compared the performance of its Logistic segments in year 2016 (good year for CJCen b4 venturing into courier service business) against 9M2021, I found its Logistics segments have actually shown growth in revenue and earnings. Thus, CJCen should do better in 2022 compared to last great year in 2016, after disposing its courier service business. Its peak stock price was RM1.40 in mid 2017 vs 56sen per share now.<br />Just for sharing.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-70277567609498388542021-12-20T09:00:21.933+08:002021-12-20T09:00:21.933+08:00In short, I opine that Bursa is where we can get t...In short, I opine that Bursa is where we can get the most info for small-medium stocks, and there are still a lot of potential to explore, I would still invest most of my time and fund here. As for US market, I will wait for the correction, and probably will then buy its index ETF or use my EPF money to invest into unit trust focusing on US blue chips.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-90888507581729634612021-12-20T08:56:54.928+08:002021-12-20T08:56:54.928+08:00Yeah, Bursa's performance has been disheartene...Yeah, Bursa's performance has been disheartened; it ranks bottom #2 performance among Asian stock market in 2021 YTD; it is only HK market is worse than us.<br />But, if look at the positive side, what come down more will go up more. If this happens, than Bursa should perform better than most Asian market in 2022.<br />I always compare what happened in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, I suffered the biggest lost and was very disheartened on Bursa, and then I had my best year in 2019.<br /><br />value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-41970565169489832722021-12-20T08:42:58.233+08:002021-12-20T08:42:58.233+08:00In Bursa, we do not invest in companies such as IH...In Bursa, we do not invest in companies such as IHH, Sime, Tenaga, Public Bank, etc because they can't grow much. Thus, we shift our attention to look for good small medium stocks, and that need time and efforts to hunt. <br />Since we know US mega stocks are where we should put the money if we invest into US market, we can consider to use portion of our fund to buy S&P or Dow Jones or Nasdaq ETF instead. In this way, we can save time and can focus our efforts in hunting for great stocks in Bursa. <br /><br />value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-21477243528814617212021-12-20T08:40:12.816+08:002021-12-20T08:40:12.816+08:00"If I were to diversify my portfolio into US ..."If I were to diversify my portfolio into US market at this stage, most probably I will only invest in those powerful companies like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Visa etc. This is very different from my strategy in local stock market in which I rarely invest in very big companies."<br /><br />The above statement is true. I concur that the main difference between US market and Bursa is its mega stocks, eg. Apple, Microsoft, etc, can perform better than small medium stocks. I think one main reason is those mega stocks are "global" companies and their growth is almost unlimited, whereas small medium US companies are doing business locally in US, and therefore, their growth is constrained.<br /><br />The U-tube below compares well the performance of mega stocks and small-medium stocks in US.<br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBxHs6bb_ZQ<br /><br />value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-62295161528954487542021-12-17T21:32:27.049+08:002021-12-17T21:32:27.049+08:00Indeed..Indeed..P.S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/06868957836616229293noreply@blogger.com