tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post4564738305519557372..comments2024-03-25T15:15:18.172+08:00Comments on Bursa Dummy: My Portfolio Oct21Bursa Dummyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02242116696140987141noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-32232791921622669412021-11-10T19:54:28.014+08:002021-11-10T19:54:28.014+08:00Thanks for sharing your view on SCIB.Thanks for sharing your view on SCIB.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-90544652617280913242021-11-10T19:51:42.054+08:002021-11-10T19:51:42.054+08:00I owned KESM, Gtronics before, and I recently boug...I owned KESM, Gtronics before, and I recently bought back some FPGroup. My view on them are as follows :<br />KESM has been facing low loading problem due to shortage of wafer and automotive chips. The concern is the same problem has persisted for many years liao and seems like no end..It's outstanding number of shares is low, thus if and when the loading recovers, it's EPS can shoot up very high. The question is when...?<br /><br />Gtronics' revenue and earnings do not show growth.. I read the analyst report published in Jun'21, saying Gtronics is planning to expand its production floor space by 30%; I hope it can really grow its business, which seems like stagnant to me.<br /><br />FPGroup's FY21 earnings has deteriorated in FY21 (July'20-Jun'21) if compared against FY20. I noticed it was partly due to lower earnings from stencil segment. The management didn't explain this matter in detail; in FY21 annual report, the management explained the sales from Asian customers has reduced..I guess maybe the stencil business mainly came from Asian region (?)<br />Anyway, I bought back some after seeing it has acquired the equity stakes of several companies/subsidiaries. In addition, the management guided that they see recovery in sales order since the beginning of 2021. Another reason is I want to increase the weightage of tech stocks in my portfolio; I currently has merely 15% weightage, I used to have ~30% weightage of tech stocks in 2019/2020. value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-74650482846230575012021-11-08T21:23:54.204+08:002021-11-08T21:23:54.204+08:00Actually I have already decided to invest in PTran...Actually I have already decided to invest in PTrans until I found out that its project facilitation fee in FY20 was one third of its overall revenue. I wonder how on earth can consultation service fetch such good amount of money. To me it doesn't seem to require great expertise, only good relationship with politicians and local authorities needed :) BTW, besides this, everything is good and exciting in PTrans. Judging from the trend, I think it should report very good results in the next few quarters. So I won't rule out investing in it short to mid term.<br /><br />At the moment I'm still quite reluctant to invest in high PE tech stocks. Right business, right people but the price isn't right... I'm waiting for their price to correct too. JHM is not "cheap" too but I bet on its high growth potential. So others with good growth might still be considered. I'm still eyeing opportunity in FPGroup, KESM, Gtronic which are not so popular ones. Not that they will have good growth, just hope they can get back to their usual selves. Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00838785922827430371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-72350664737929079712021-11-08T09:52:52.521+08:002021-11-08T09:52:52.521+08:00PTrans' business model is very much like Airpo...PTrans' business model is very much like Airport, but it is not as popular and as well known as Airport. I think PTrans is considered an undervalued growth stock based on its FY21 YTD earnings and its expansion plan. But, it may stay unpopular for long time till I lose my patience to hold it :p<br />Tech stocks have been popular since year 2017 (or earlier), and I foresee this industry will remain popular in many years to come. I only own JHM in my technology portfolio now; I dare not buy more tech stocks bcos their PE are too high. Having said that, I recognize that their high PE has became a "norm" to Malaysia market; and if I cannot accept this norm, I may lose opportunity to make profit from tech stocks..<br />I think I may have to use "relative PE" to measure tech stocks from now onwards. This means, for example, if MPI's PE is 38x now, and if it can fall to, for instance, ~30x in future, that would be considered "relatively" cheap, and I should then pick up some? I am waiting for the correction in tech stocks, I think it may come together with the correction in Nasdaq, probably when people worry about interest rate hike next year.<br />I would like to know What do you think about this matter? Any tech stocks in your "to-buy" list now? Are u okay to buy tech stock at high PE?value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-29396729302872936912021-11-08T09:08:07.595+08:002021-11-08T09:08:07.595+08:00"However I'm not sure whether PTrans cons..."However I'm not sure whether PTrans constructs its own terminal (whether it recognizes the construction revenue of previous Kampar or upcoming Bidor Terminal)."<br /><br />I don't think Ptrans construct its own terminal since they do not have construction division. My idea of PTrans recognising the construction revenue for Terminal Bidor came from TheStar article dated 20th Aug 2021 when it says "On its growth strategies, Perak Transit said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia, that they included earnings recognition from the new terminal (Bidor Sentral), increase in...."<br />I suppose the "earnings recognition" would be like when Jaks constructed it's Vietnam power plant; there was no actual cash flow as income to Jaks, but the "earnings" was recognised when the construction is progressing. Well, I have to confess that I am not certain on this matter.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-65063648603469658112021-11-08T08:57:10.142+08:002021-11-08T08:57:10.142+08:00On project facilitation fee, PTrans charges a rate...On project facilitation fee, PTrans charges a rate of ~2.5% of projects' total gross development costs for consulting services on bus terminal development and operations. Your doubt is if the income from this fee is sustainable? I do see this fee income has been there since PTrans was listed in 2016/17. Such fees are one-off in nature, and it has 2-3 projects per annum in different states. In Jan'20, the boss told Equity Tracker that the project facilitation fee will continue to contribute in next 3 to 5 years bcos there are many bus terminal operator not doing well in Malaysia and needs PTrans' expertise to consult them in the development and operation of of bus terminal. If it is 3-5 years from 2020, I suppose the fee income will continue to contribute till 2023-2025; there is no guidance if the fee income is sustainable after that period. But, I do learn that when new Terminal Kampar's A&P revenue increases, the contribution % for project facilitation fee for IPTT segment will reduce. And, the new TK's gross leasable area is approximately 8x that of Terminal Amanjaya.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-66042429571823357212021-11-07T12:32:42.631+08:002021-11-07T12:32:42.631+08:00Before the Serbadk saga, I think that SCIB was at ...Before the Serbadk saga, I think that SCIB was at least worth RM1, and might be up to RM2. Now it's only 18.5sen with no major change in its fundamental. It looks attractive but since there are many unknowns, personally I won't touch it until things become clearer. Those who take high risk might be rewarded handsomely. It's about our own decision and risk appetite. People might have a false impression that SCIB is involved in suspicious accounting fraud like Serbadk but it's not the case. As the new auditor is only appointed in Sep21, I think SCIB should be allowed to delay its annual audited account since it involves 18 months from Jan20 to Jun21.<br /><br />We can foresee that SCIB will be suspended until may be mid to end of December. Many events can happen during this time which either gives shareholders happy days or sleepless nights. <br /><br />First, SIR of Serbadk will be out by end Nov. If Serbadk is innocent, then it's unlikely that SCIB cook its book and its share price will probably fly after trading resumes. However if Serbadk is found guilty, then I don't think SCIB's share price will do well until the person involved exit the company. Will SCIB be the same after the exit of such key personnel? <br /><br />SCIB might release its own QR in Nov but it might be delayed to Dec (not sure whether still allowed by Bursa). From previous QR, I think its upcoming QR won't be that good, esp with MCO and increasing project cost. There is a possibility that it might still register loss... After that, it will finally release its FY20 audited account in Dec. It will be good if there is no major discrepancy with the unaudited one. The worst scenario is the new auditor suddenly raise a red flag.<br /><br />I can foresee that if Serbadk is clear of any wrongdoing, its share price will limit up for may be 3 consecutive days. This might happen to SCIB too. If SCIB falls to 15 sen before being suspended, limit up 3 times means RM1.05. It's a 600% gain in 3 days! Anyway, the opposite also can happen. For me, I just want to avoid possible sleepless nights.Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02242116696140987141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-4739425791430293262021-11-07T11:47:10.102+08:002021-11-07T11:47:10.102+08:00Thanks for your recommendation. I've just stud...Thanks for your recommendation. I've just studied PTrans a bit. I agree that it has a good potential for growth and everything looks good after MCO being lifted, in which rental rate and occupancy rate are sure to improve compared to MCO period when it gave free rental. Its business model is resilient with no competitors. More terminals in the future translate into profit growth. Furthermore, at 69.5sen per share now, it looks relatively inexpensive too.<br /><br />However I'm not sure whether PTrans constructs its own terminal (whether it recognizes the construction revenue of previous Kampar or upcoming Bidor Terminal). Two other areas of concern to me are, first, the high revenue contribution from project facilitation fee that sounds non-recurrent. This fee comprises 55% of FY20 IPTT revenue and has grown by 35% compared to FY19 compared to ~20% growth in rental income. The pace of such growth seems to continue into the first half of FY21. <br /><br />Second is the persistent negative FCF due to the continuous investment in PPE, but this is not too big a concern as I think may be after the Bidor Terminal FCF might turn positive since its operating cashflow is always good. If the contribution from project facilitation can continue to grow, or at least stay at current level every year, then I think PTrans is a good undervalued stock to consider at the moment.Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02242116696140987141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-38105839588501741162021-11-07T10:58:00.649+08:002021-11-07T10:58:00.649+08:00IF, (only just if) Serbadk is found guilty, I also...IF, (only just if) Serbadk is found guilty, I also don't think it's so serious until the company has to be declared bankrupt or delisted. However, it will be difficult for the company to do business since the credibility has been lost, until the culprits are kicked out. Will the company still be the same without previous key personnel? Surely the company's valuation will suffer for a while.Bursa Dummyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02242116696140987141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-12752177309228802992021-11-05T09:22:49.694+08:002021-11-05T09:22:49.694+08:00When I see SCIB's stock price keeps coming dow...When I see SCIB's stock price keeps coming down, my hand starts to itchy :p<br />One part of me is thinking the situation for SCIB cannot be this bad, I should pick up some before end of next Monday (before its suspension). Another part of me keep reminding myself the lesson I just learned from KPower and I should not do so again in SCIB..<br />Maybe I can set 15sen per share as the target buy price..<br />What do u think about SCIB at such a low price now?value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-91537005275411273042021-11-05T09:16:11.608+08:002021-11-05T09:16:11.608+08:00In general, the performance of Bursa in 2021 is di...In general, the performance of Bursa in 2021 is disappointing. I also think it is difficult to make money in stock market this year. I was thinking 2020 was hard to make money and 2021 should be a recovery year. The fact it is just the opposite for both years.<br />Bursa is still stuck at 1,531 whereas US index has been breaking new record high. I am thinking what will happen to Bursa when US index comes down..<br />I foresee FED's interest rate hike to start in mid 2022. I personally think it is still okay to hold Bursa stocks till Feb'22. After that, I will want to reduce most of my capital from stock market liao.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-61268513717265220672021-11-05T08:58:22.085+08:002021-11-05T08:58:22.085+08:00"Currently I hold quite a lot of cash but cou..."Currently I hold quite a lot of cash but could not find a very good company to invest in."<br /><br />Me too as I disposed some O&G and steel stocks lately.<br />Just to share, my recent buy is Perak Transit (PTrans). I think Ptrans has growth in short and long terms :<br />Short-term growth strategies include earnings recognition (construction revenue) from the new Bidor Sentral terminal, increase in Kampar Putra Sentral's occupancy rate after MCO, and additional 3rd party terminal management contracts.<br />The long-term growth is the Group's plan to expand further 2 new bus terminals in Perak-Bidor Sentral (commence construction in FY21 and complete in FY23) and Tronoh (commence construction in FY23).value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-58697203308476179032021-11-05T08:48:48.650+08:002021-11-05T08:48:48.650+08:00I think Kxrim is trying very hard to cover-up and ...I think Kxrim is trying very hard to cover-up and make Serbak looks totally innocent. Since I hold KPower and not willing to sell at current low level, I have to hope Kxrim can succeed doing so :p Otherwise, we would see some impairments on Serbak and worse thing is its reputation would be badly impacted.<br />All in, I learn one lesson from this Serba saga - I should not, in future, take any risk on stock or related stock which are having potential audit discrepancy issue. <br />Well, we win some and we lose some in stock market. value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9212230152177138609.post-76889767236691973622021-11-05T08:40:16.247+08:002021-11-05T08:40:16.247+08:00"Serbak has already provided the detailed exp..."Serbak has already provided the detailed explanation to KPMG's queries. Why does E&Y take so long to justify them?"<br /><br />The above is exactly what has been in my mind when studying Serbak's issue, which has dragged down KPower's stock price by a lot. Well, I am kind of regretted to put faith on Kxrim..it is true that if Serbak has done nothing wrong, EY's SIR would not take so long. If the SIR cannot be concluded till now, that shows the issues are much more complicated than I thought. I do believe now that there are hanky-panky in Serbak's account book...<br />Having said that, I also don't think Serbak's situation is very bad till the extent that it has made loss in past several years and tried to cover-up. I think the earnings was being inflated, and the balance sheet was kind of "beautified". Maybe the management needs that to get loan easier and attract people to subscribe its PP and etc.value88https://www.blogger.com/profile/14876933285749820353noreply@blogger.com