Friday, 29 April 2016

A Shift Of Focus...

Some readers of this blog might be wondering: what has happened to Bursa Dummy lately??

This blog has been somewhat "abandoned" since the start of year 2016.

The reason is, I have shifted my focus out of stock market at the moment.

Now, I don't look at real time stock market price, I read less stock market news and I even forgot my stock trading login password at one time!

I don't even check the closing price of the stocks at the end of each trading day.

However, this does not mean that I don't like or don't believe in stock market investing anymore.

I'm still holding lots of shares and might buy or sell if there is a need to do so.

Why are people investing in stock market? To me it's a way to maximize our net worth.

To achieve financial freedom, I wrote before that we need to Earn, Save, Protect & Invest.

I have invested in property and stock markets, and I will continue to do so. Now I'm trying to earn more by doing some business.

That's why I spend less time in stock market, blogging and doing company research.

From year 2008 to 2012, I was doing property market research and viewing subsale and new properties.

After 2012, I just didn't feel it's a right time for me to buy more properties. So I shifted my focus more into stock market in 2013.

That's the time I developed my new investment strategy and became more active in blogging.

Now we are in year 2016. Personally I don't think that it will be a very good year for stock and property markets.

So, I'm thinking of maximizing my earning potential through business venture so that I can have more cash to invest when the time comes.

Anyway, I will still do a monthly summary for my stock portfolio here.

Tuesday, 5 April 2016

My Portfolio Mac16

Summary for March 2016

Mac16
Numbers of stocks 13
Cash:Share ratio 22.0%
Share Sold None
Share Bought KESM @ 3.91


Overall 2016
Portfolio Return Mac16 -0.3%
KLCI Return Mac16 3.80%
Portfolio Return YTD16 -12.3%
KLCI Return YTD16 1.48%


Stock Portfolio @ Mac16

Satellite Portfolio

Stocks Avg Feb16 Mac16 Div 16 Mac16(%) Overall(%)
AWC 0.375 0.435 0.45
3.4 20.0
BJAUTO 1.92 2.20 2.17 4.65 -0.4 13.0
COMPLETE 0.79 0.795 0.780
-1.9 -1.3
GTRONIC 2.43 5.50 5.41 9.0 0.0 122.6
HEVEA 0.775 1.34 1.19 0.75 -10.6 53.5
INARI 0.66 3.23 3.22 2.4 0.4 387.9
INARI-WB n/a 1.66 1.65
-0.6 n/a
KESM 4.42 4.32 4.13
-4.4 -6.6
LATITUD 2.09 6.19 5.39
-12.9 157.9
MATRIX 1.77 2.30 2.48 3.75 9.5 40.1
MATRIX-WA n/a 0.385 0.435
13.0 n/a
NOTION 0.40 0.39 0.40
2.6 0.0
SCIENTEX 5.47 10.72 12.96 26.0 20.9 136.9
TAMBUN 0.77 1.35 1.45 3.0 7.4 88.3
TEKSENG 1.18 1.12 1.12
0.0 -5.1


Comment:

  • YTD 12.3% portfolio loss underperforms KLCI's 1.48% gain, mainly due to bearish sentiment in export-orientated stocks
  • Dividend ex-ed in Mac16: BJAuto (2.15sen), Gtronic (9sen), Hevea (0.75sen), Inari (2.4sen) & Matrix (3.75sen)
  • Add more KESM shares at RM3.91
  • Scientex proposed 1:1 bonus issue
  • Not so active in stock market since Feb16, probably will keep these stocks for longer term


Plan:

  • May add more KESM
  • Keep cash



Wednesday, 9 March 2016

Property: Huayang, Tambun, Matrix

Most property stocks in Bursa Malaysia reversed their uptrend since Oct14.

Property stocks have been falling for one and half years now and I still do not see any encouraging signs of recovery.

Many property developers delay their new launches and registered poorer sales in 2015.

However, there are some who manage to take advantage of lower supply in the market to rake in more sales in 2015.

These companies are mostly those who serve a niche market with their exceptional branding or strategic location.

As I have less time for blogging, I will briefly review the quarterly financial results of those property stocks I have.

Currently I have 2 property stocks in my portfolio (excluding Scientex) after selling all Huayang shares in Jan16.




HUAYANG

Huayang's FY16Q3's financial result is good as expected.

It posted a PATAMI of RM30.2mil, with cumulative 9-month PATAMI of RM88.7mil which is 10% higher than FY15's corresponding period.




When I bought Huayang's shares in Sep14, even though I was aware of property market slowdown, I predicted that Huayang can post strong financial results for at least FY15 & FY16, and give at least 13sen dividend for 2 years.

This is actually not too hard to predict base on its previous new sales trend and unbilled sales.

If new sales manage to beat market expectation in FY15 & FY16, then the results could be even better.

Now we are at the end of Huayang's FY16 (which ends on Mac16), financial results and dividends are good as expected but there is no surprise in new sales.

EPS average about 11sen a quarter and what should be its fair value base on PE ratio?

Anyway, I failed to predict the PE ratio market would like give it.

This shows that PE ratio is nothing if market sentiment is poor in the sector.

New sales so far after 9MFY16 stands at RM255mil, which is unlikely to reach RM400mil in the whole year of FY16. Huayang achieves new sales of RM460mil for FY15.

So unbilled sales drop from RM733mil a year ago to RM530mil now.

It's not hard to predict that Huayang's FY17 will be poorer.

I have sold all my shares in Huayang at a loss of 13.3%. However, it does not mean that I don't like Huayang or it is a poor company. It's just part of portfolio management.

For FY16, Huayang should be able to give the same 13sen dividends like previous FY. This is a good 7.1% yield at current share price of RM1.82.


TAMBUN



Tambun posted a good FY15Q4 result but a fair value gain on investment property of RM6.67mil was included in the PBT.

Even though revenue drops 20% for FY15 compared to FY14, PATAMI manage to stay about the same at slightly more than RM100mil..

Just like Huayang, Tambun's new sales drop from RM429mil in FY14 to RM263mil in FY15. Unbilled sales drop from RM427mil to RM324mil in the same period of time.

However, I think this does not reflect the true sales status of Tambun as it was affected negatively by delay in development approval.

New project Raintree Park 2 contributed RM55mil new sales in Dec15, while Avenue Garden is still yet to be counted in.

I think these 2 projects (combined GDV RM300mil) should be able to give at least RM200mil of new sales to Tambun in FY15 if there is no delay.

Pearl City Mall, even though only a small 2-storey mall, will open to public in 2 weeks time. 

Besides, Jit Sin SPS branch should be able to start student intake for year 2017, and the plan to set up a private hospital in Pearl City is still on-going.

For 2016, new sales might not be that good but Tambun should not have a problem to surpass FY15's figure.

It should give around 9 sen dividend for FY15, which means a dividend yield of 6.8% at current share price of RM1.33.


MATRIX

Despite soft property market, Matrix still manage to sell more properties in 2015 which I think is rare in the sector.

Matrix bags a record-breaking RM805mil new sales in FY15 compared to RM630mil in FY14. Thus, unbilled sales also rise to RM633mil from RM429mil.




In FY16, Matrix will concentrate mainly on its Bandar Sri Sendayan, where it will launch projects worth more than RM1bil there in 2016.

It will build a new extreme park in BSS to make the township more appealing, while I think Matrix may end up operating a private hospital in the future.

Matrix has declared total 14.4sen (adjusted) dividends for FY15. This is a 6.0% yield at current share price of RM2.40.