The last quarter of 2014 is a bad quarter for my share portfolio, which saw year-to-date return plunged from 71.2% in Sep to 38.6% in Dec.
If this momentum continues into 2015, it will not be a surprise that all the gain will be wiped out.
A good reality check indeed.
Lesson no.1 in 2014: Always keep some cash
Anyway, I'm still glad that I can make a commendable gain from stock market in 2014. Including the dividends received, the total YTD return will be 44.5%, slightly higher than year 2013 (July13-Dec13) return of 39.0%.
If I received total dividends of RM10,000 in 2014, my overall return will be
[ 130,000 - 0.5(20,000) / 100,000 + 0.5(20,000) ] - 1 = 0.09 = 9%
|Stocks||End Dec13||End Dec14||G/L (%)|
Latitude appears to be the best performer with 75.5% annual gain in share price. It helps my portfolio a lot since it carries the greatest weightage.
Anyway, I failed to lift Latitude to my core portfolio in 2014 as planned, though it is close.
Everyone expects property market to suffer in 2015. I share the same view too.
I have 3.5 property stocks in my portfolio currently... sweating |||
It can give high dividend yield for the next 2 years base on 40% dividend payout. Its prime land at Puchong & proven management team serve as an insurance for me.
Most importantly, its management is also superb.
Scientex's future is bright due to massive expansion in its packaging division. It might be affected by stronger USD due to its USD-denominated loans. However I think its export should be in USD as well.
The reason I planned to reduce property shares last year was because I thought property price has reached the level where middle class can't really afford hence new property sales will drop.
Nevertheless, most property developers' stock price surged in the first 9 months of 2014, only to succumb to sell down in the last quarter of 2014.
I have to admit that I was carried away by this euphoria until I "forgot" my initial plan.
However, I increased Matrix shares in Feb14 and added in Huayang in Oct14 (the by-product of euphoria).
Lesson no.2 in 2014: Don't be carried away. Always stay awake & alert
Low crude oil price will significantly reduce the demand for biodiesel so it might not be good for CPO if crude oil continue to trade at lowish level.
To insulate from an unexpected market crash, a net cash or low debts company will always be ideal.