Summary For March 2025
Portfolio @ End of Mac25
Stock market continues to be lackluster in the month of March in which KLCI fell heavily at 3.9%.
My portfolio suffered small loss of 0.3% in the month, bringing the YTD loss to 8.9%.
I guess almost every investor who holds stocks will make paper loss at this stage of the year.
Sentiment was really bad in early to mid March, so I took the opportunity to top up some shares.
However, it's still too early to tell whether my decision is right or wrong.
I was lucky to have bought some of its shares at RM1.40 and sold all of them in 4 trading days time at RM1.73.
Besides, I also topped up some shares in FocusP & TMCLife. I planned to do short term trade on TMCLife before it announced its FY25Q1 result, which I think is unlikely to be good.
For FocusP, it will be for longer term. The recent ban of online sales of optical devices and contact lenses should be good news to FocusP.
Hiaptek's FY25Q2 result was not that good, with reduction in revenue and profits due to lower sales volume and average selling price. It is widely expected as steel price has been trending down since 2024.
The contribution from JV dropped significantly from RM42mil in preceding FY25Q1 to RM25.3mil, claimed to be due to unfavourable forex despite stronger operating profit margin.
The JV's HRC project has commenced production since Jan25. It is hard to tell how will it perform in the midst of the trade war.
EUPE & TAS will announce their quarter results in April. Anything below expectation might be heavily punished amid current sentiment...
EUPE's big projects Circadia Belfield and Edgewater Estate seems to be delayed to at least the end of the year. Thus there will be lack of new big launch throughout year 2025. Its unbilled sales will not be nice to see.
Now the US reciprocal tariff is out. Malaysia has been hit with 24% tariff for its export to the US which will take effect from 9th of April 2025.
Some goods will be exempted from the tariff though, including semiconductors.
The 24% is not a small figure but it feels not that bad compared to neighboring "competing" countries such as Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%) & Indonesia (32%).
Does it mean that Malaysia may welcome more foreign investment?
China is badly hit with 34% + 20% tariff. Now the world is waiting on how China will retaliate.
The US has warned against any retaliation. If every country in the world in return, imposes higher tariff on US, then US might suffer like hell.
Malaysia has already declared that it won't impose extra tariff against US import, but will seek negotiation instead.
If Malaysia raise tariff on US import, certainly we might see price increase in some US goods.
However, I read that if the tariff is not countered, it will be detrimental to the country's economy in long term.
The trade war has definitely gone up to another level and it creates lots of uncertainties.
We are not sure how bad the economy of each countries will be affected, or whether global recession is looming.
US companies might be forced to move their manufacturing facilities back to the US, causing loss of jobs & loss of income in the affected countries.
Nevertheless, when the is a crisis, there will always be opportunities.
After the reciprocal tariff was announced, the share price of Malaysia's gloves stocks all went up substantially, as they are taxed lower than their competitors in other countries.
However, the share price of furniture stocks that export to the US did not seem to enjoy such buying spree.
It's still too early to know how the trading pattern in the world will be reshaped in long term.
Malaysia's companies might export more to the US due to "tariff advantage" but might face more competition in other countries.
The effect of tariff is not easy to predict in the near term. Are the stock markets going to suffer for a long time due to such uncertainty?
Perhaps in the near future, the tariff will be suspended or reduced, or totally cancelled? Who knows?
Hi , curious why you promise yourself not to add "Hibiscus" anymore. The cashflow is healthy and dividend yield is high at this level? Any particular issue with the company that you concern of?
ReplyDeleteHi, it's mainly because as the world is pushing towards green energy and sustainability, Hibiscus might not get higher valuation I think it deserves.. Anyway, it's a great company like you mention, that's why I still keep its shares to enjoy its dividends.
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