| Jan-16 | |
| Numbers of stocks | 14 |
| Cash:Share ratio | 7.2% |
| Share Bought | KESM @ 4.80 |
| Share Sold | Huayang @ 1.83 |
| Overall 2016 | |
| Portfolio Return Jan16 | -10.1% |
| KLCI Return Jan16 | -1.46% |
| Portfolio Return YTD16 | -10.1% |
| KLCI Return YTD16 | -1.46% |
Stock Portfolio @ End of Jan16
Satellite Portfolio
| Stocks | Avg | Dec15 | Jan16 | Div 16 | Jan16(%) | Overall(%) |
| AWC | 0.375 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 5.1 | 9.3 | |
| BJAUTO | 1.92 | 2.14 | 2.17 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 13.0 |
| COMPLETE | 0.79 | 0.805 | 0.795 | -1.2 | 0.6 | |
| GESHEN | 0.77 | 2.76 | 2.23 | -19.2 | 202.6 | |
| GTRONIC | 2.43 | 6.50 | 5.47 | -15.8 | 125.1 | |
| HEVEA | 0.775 | 1.62 | 1.35 | -16.7 | 74.2 | |
| INARI | 0.66 | 3.66 | 3.23 | -11.7 | 389.4 | |
| INARI-WB | n/a | 2.13 | 1.66 | -22.1 | n/a | |
| JOHOTIN | 1.54 | 2.09 | 1.98 | -5.3 | 28.6 | |
| KESM | 4.80 | n/a | 4.85 | n/a | 1.0 | |
| LATITUD | 2.09 | 7.39 | 6.96 | -5.8 | 233.0 | |
| MATRIX | 1.77 | 2.49 | 2.37 | -4.8 | 33.9 | |
| MATRIX-WA | n/a | 0.425 | 0.400 | -5.9 | n/a | |
| NOTION | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.39 | -7.1 | -2.5 | |
| SCIENTEX | 5.47 | 9.75 | 10.50 | 26.0 | 10.4 | 92.0 |
| TAMBUN | 0.77 | 1.41 | 1.27 | 3.0 | -7.8 | 64.9 |
Comment:
- Dividend ex-ed for BJAuto (2.5sen), Scientex (26sen) & Tambun (3sen) in Jan16.
- Negative portfolio return of 10% mainly due to significant retreat in export-orientated stocks especially Geshen.
- Worst monthly portfolio return since Dec14.
- Scientex becomes the 8th stock to surpass 100% gain.
- Added KESM due to optimism on automobile semiconductors demand.
- Sold Huayang at a loss of 15.3% inclusive of dividends received & transaction fees
- Failed to reduce the number of stocks in portfolio, currently stays at 14.
Plan:
- To trim portfolio and keep more cash.
- To buy only during significant share price/market correction
I would sell all now and stay in cash. Wait for dust to settle and then start all over again at another level. This is my view.
ReplyDeleteYes, it's always safer with lots of cash on hand, to look for new opportunities.
DeleteWelcome to be the shareholder of KESM. I top up more shares after knowing you are also joining the business :)
ReplyDeleteI think selling Huayang is a nice move, it's stock price hardly move due to bad property market. It's dividend yield is high, but base on your past years' record, I believe you can get higher return when you divert your money into other stocks.
I took the recent sell-down opportunity to buy into Mudajaya. Would you be interested in this stock ? The reasons I bought are as follows :
I) Profit managed to turn into black in Q3 after several quarters of losses.
ii) Construction outstanding order book replenished to RM1.6B after last few awarded contracts.
iii) Indian IPP project finally achieved Commercial Operation Date (COD) in Nov'15 for unit #1, and the rest of the 3 units are targeted to achieve COD in Q1, Q2 & Q3 of FY16. The profit contribution can amount to RM70mil per year if all 4 units are fully operational.
There are a number of -ve points too :
I) Main segment is construction which has thin margin and tends to incur cost overrun. It was cost overrun that dragged down it's earning in the past 3 quarters.
ii) The COD of the other 3 units IPP project may be further delayed. The target date kept on delay so it may delay again.
iii) Increasing high gearing, -ve cash flow for past many quarters, high receivables.
The key to determine if Mudajaya can really turnaround with style in 2016 is if the Indian IPP project can be fully operational on schedule. If not, the improving outstanding order book and tighter cost control should at least keep Mudajaya's earning in the black.
I bet on this stock because i think the downside is smaller than the upside.
Thanks for giving such a good info regarding Mudajaya. I've also read Icon's marvelous article on this company and I agree with you that it looks undervalued from every way esp at RM1.20 now. As I'm trying to be more cautious this year, I will wait to see how much it can really get from India's power plant. By doing so, I know that I might lose a chance to buy at lower price :)
DeleteBD, let me declare that I'm your big fan.
ReplyDeleteWhile I do agree that property stocks are probably off investors' radar at the time being, I will still buy these stocks if their future earnings are visible. I've recently accumulated Hohup, this stock is too cheap to ignore, given it is set to receive "recurring income" totally RM60mil per year from 2016 until 2022 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/print/254306. Properties at strategic locations that include Hohup's at Bukit Jalil are still selling like hot cakes. The only disturbing part is that this company is now raising funds via right issues. Hohup is a construction company and I expect it to clinch several infra projects this year. Appreciate it if you could share your thoughts on this Hohup.
Hi Angie. Thanks. I agree that HoHup's current share price now at slightly over 80sen is "cheap" with good earning visibility. Quite similar to Gadang actually. Its share price will surely go up when property sector regain interest.
DeleteI'm thinking of Ho Hup too. PE ratio very low. I'll study further whether the PE ratio include those diluted from warrant.
DeleteThe problem with HoHup?
They don't pay dividend. Rights issue Preference shares with warrant in 2013 and now want to raise fund again.
1 Rights for 5 Shares, 1 Warrant for 1 Rights share.
Hi BD,
ReplyDeleteIm a student. I want to start investing in stocks. How much should allocate if i have 25k?
Hi, you're medical student? How much to allocate into stock market depends on your risk appetite and how you invest (short/long term). If you go for long term I think you may accumulate a few good stocks bit by bit.
DeleteHi BD, gong hei fatt choi! Let's huat in this monkey year :)
ReplyDeleteThanks wachxe. Happy CNY to you and your family. So far it has not been a good start to this fire monkey year :)
DeleteGood that you cut loss on Hua Yang.
ReplyDeleteI'm not talking about the price, maybe Hua Yang jump up now, buy I think you made decision based on fundamental. Same when you sell your Heng Huat.
Ya, without new launch, next 1-2 years result will not be good.
DeleteBD, although not sure about the long term prospect, but i think it should still be OK for the next 1-2 years, with 530 million of unbilled sales & new launches.
Deletehttp://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/13/hua-yang-plans-to-maintain-dividend/
"Hua Yang’s project launches in 2016 include Ridgewood (Phase 2) in Perak comprising three-storey cluster semi-detached units, three-storey link bungalows and bungalows.
Other projects involving single-storey terrace homes, serviced residents and apartments are Seri Andaman (Phase 2) also in Perak, Citywoods (Tower A) in Johor and Mines South close to The Mines Shopping Centre."
Actually I sold Huayang not because it is not good, just part of portfolio management :)
DeleteHi, your recent buy, KESM, dropped more than 10%.
ReplyDeleteAny reason for that? USD? Market sentiment? Poor result coming?
PBB initiate buy call on BJAUTO. But i'm not touching that one.
I think poor market sentiment esp on export/semicon stocks is the main reason, but can't rule out insiders sell after knowing upcoming poor quarterly result. As its liquidity is low, fluctuation in its share price will be high.
DeleteHi BD, would like to ask why you sell Huayang but still keep Matrix in your portfolio?
ReplyDeleteHi Lee,
DeleteSimply put, both Huayang & Matrix are proven great property developers with good DY. Huayang's sales are dropping due to lack of new launch, while Matrix's sales are increasing. Huayang's upcoming projects are mainly high-rise but Matrix still have ample land for landed properties in its huge townships, and I think landed properties can resist property slow down better.
I can't rule out that Huayang soon will launch a few new projects at a go like few years ago and increase its new sales and unbilled sales tremendously. If this happens, Huayang will be able to sustain its earnings & DY. Anyway, I need to trim my portfolio and I think I should let go Huayang, and may be other property stocks later.
Huayang also have township development in BUSI and newly acquired Johor land but I think Matrix's BSS is better.
DeleteThanks BD for you kind explanation.
DeleteYou're welcomed, Lee.
DeleteI reckon Ge-shen might have another run, probably due to news or something. Once you see that, please sell all your Ge-shen shares after that despite your holding cost is low.
ReplyDeleteHi. Are you an insider?
DeleteHi BD, of course I am not insider but I personally feel not comfortable with the share price play and this stock to me is fully cornered now.
DeleteUnfortunately, this stock drift down so much today. You will wonder why good quarter but sell down. This morning with fake buy up before the sell down. I believe this share will drift down even further, time will tell..
DeleteAfter seeing few companies with "less than expected results" suffered, I sold most of my Geshen shares before result announcement, and you're right.
DeleteBD,
ReplyDeleteComplet just released another sterling set of result. I was lucky that I had still got a chance to buy at a steal at 0.810 today.
Diesel consumption is one of the biggest Complet's operational cost. Now with the tumbling of Diesel to multiple year low of RM1.30/lit, Complet is set to reap this benefits.
Thanks again for your solid recommendation.
Hi Angie, actually I'm not too pleased with Complete's latest result, as you can see PBT is actually lower QoQ. However, it's not a bad result and I still think that this stock has got potential.
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ReplyDelete