My Portfolio Mac26

 Summary of March 2026

Portfolio @ End of Mac26

On the last day of Feb26, someone decided to start a war and the stock market plummeted in Mac26 as a result.

Initially many people thought that US & Israel war on Iran will end swiftly within a week or two but now it seems like it might drag on for months.

Stock market in the world suffers due to the fear of inflation & economy slowdown caused by the escalating crude oil price.

As Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz which is responsible for 20% of the world's oil & gas passage, Brent crude oil price surged toward USD120/barrel from USD72/barrel before the war. 

Currently it stays above USD100/barrel while there is still fear that oil & gas facilities in the region might get destroyed further.

My portfolio suffered badly and lost 6.4% in the month, though it still manage to hang on with a small 1.3% gain YTD.

The only stock that perform well is unsurprisingly Hibiscus which rose 41%.

I plan to "average down" some stocks in my portfolio during the sell down but unfortunately I just bought quite a few stocks in the last 2 months so I have only 25% of cash left.

Part of the cash was quickly thrown into AAX once its share price fell below RM1.30. However, it continues to drop further to below RM1.00..

Why RM1.30? It's because this is the price of new shares AAX issued to pay for the acquisition of Airasia Aviation Group Limited from Capital A.

From my own calculation earlier, the EPS of AAX might potentially reach 30sen after the corporate exercise, and I'd give it a conservative target price of RM2.00.

Thus, I hope to accumulate more AAX shares but I need to do it more carefully as jet fuel has doubled and we don't know how soon it will "normalize".

AAX has reintroduced fuel surcharge and raised ticket price to counter the increasing cost but I think it will not be enough. Its financial results in the coming quarters will certainly get a big hit.

AAX does not have any fuel hedge in place, making it particularly vulnerable to the spiking fuel cost as a low cost carrier with thin margin.

Jet fuel is said to account for 30-40% of its overall cost.

Maybank IB estimates that every USD1 increase in jet fuel price above USD85 per barrel would reduce AAX's earning estimate by about RM75mil per year.

Since the start of the war, jet fuel price has shot up more than 100% from USD90/barrel to over USD200/barrel now. 

This means if this situation stays, AAX earning will be reduced by at least RM2bil per quarter!

Even after the US declares victory and leave, Iran might not open the Strait of Hormuz completely to retaliate against its neighbours that support the US.

In this case, the crude oil supply might not fall to the pre-war level.

From the chart above, jet fuel price did surge to USD180/barrel before in Mac22 when Russia invaded Ukraine. It took more than a year for the price to drop to the pre-war level.

AAX's share price touched the lowest at 98sen since the war started. It's a 50% drop from RM1.98 before the war, making it the worst performing aviation stock in Mac26.

I believe that there will be a time when the jet fuel price falls below USD100/barrel again, and AAX's share price will be trading at above RM2.00.

The question is how long do we need to wait?

My Portfolio Feb26

Summary of February 2026

 

Portfolio @ End of Feb26

Following a spectacular start to the year, Feb26 was not a good month for KLCI as it dropped 1.4%, bringing down the YTD gain to 2.2%.

My portfolio also lost 0.5% in the month, in which both JHM & MMSV suffered 19% & 16% drop respectively after posting bad quarter results.

I have made a calculation error in my Jan26 portfolio gain and I've made the correction. The gain should be 9.13%, not 11% as posted earlier.

Anyway, the Middle East is at war now and the world stock markets generally tumbled.

My Portfolio Jan26

Summary of January 2026

Portfolio @ End of Jan26

KLCI made an impressive start to the year of 2026 with a 3.62% gain, as the banking stocks continue their superb run since Dec25.

Jan26 also witnessed MYR strengthening and broke below RM4.00 against USD for the first time since 2018.

Gold and silver price continued their bull run only to fall sharply in the end of Jan26.

My portfolio performed well with a 9.13% gain thanks to IAB, which is the first stock to hit limit up in 2026.

Review of 2025: Can Tech Stocks Rebound in 2026?

 

Year 2025 was dominated by Donald Trump's return to the White House and his reciprocal tariffs which resulted in trade war with China.

Within the year, US Fed cut the interest rate from 4.5% to 3.75%, which is generally good for its stock market.

Precious metals price staged a remarkable rally. Gold price rose more than 60% in 2025 to a record high above USD4,500, while silver & platinum prices appreciated even more with their prices more than doubled.

Brent crude oil price dropped about 25% from USD80 to USD60 per barrel, while palm oil price also weakened 20% from RM5,000 to RM4,000 per tonne.

Bitcoin price broke new high in Sep25 to over USD120k but retreated to end the year at around USD88k, down 10% from around USD98k at the beginning of the year.

Malaysia Ringgit appreciated approximately 10% against the USD, from RM4.50 to RM4.05. At the same time, SGD weakened 5% against MYR from RM3.30 to RM3.15.