Preview of 2022: Tech Stocks Off To A Bad Start

 

Which sector in Bursa Malaysia will excel in year 2022? 

I think many investors opine that technology sector will continue to flourish in 2022 after doing exceptionally well in 2020 & 2021.

The reason is simple: 5G, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, Internet of Things, IR 4.0, smart devices, metaverse etc. 

These things are the future and it seems like they are still in their infancy stage. All of them need a lot more sophisticated chip.

Thus, semiconductor's demand is high in the foreseeable future.

However, as we step into the first two weeks of 2022, the stock prices of technology stocks in Bursa Malaysia drop like nobody's business.

Most of them suffers 15-25% slash in their share prices in the past one week alone.

Is this a golden opportunity to grab their shares or is it just the beginning of a prolonged downtrend?

My Portfolio Dec21

 

Summary For December 2021

Portfolio @ End of Dec21

Finally a difficult year 2021 was over. My portfolio was flat in December and ended the year with a small gain of 2.32%.

This result is almost similar to year 2016 when my portfolio registered a 3.2% loss but I felt that 2021 was worse than 2016.

This is because I started year 2016 badly with a 10% loss in the first month. However, it improved from the second half and ended the year with the least loss.

In 2021, it was the opposite of 2016 as my portfolio started the year with a bang with 35% gain in the first month only to see the gain evaporated to just 2.3% by the end of the year.

Generally I feel relieved that I'm still able to stay in positive territory in year 2021 but at the same time also feel disappointed.

Last month was a "buy" month in which I bought in 4 companies' shares but this month is a "sell" month in which I sold the shares of 4 other companies.

With this move, I have reduced the total number of stocks in my portfolio to 14. There are still 4 stocks that I planned earlier to dispose in year 2021 but failed to do so.

CMSB: The Undisputed Child of Sarawak

In year 2019, one listed company in Malaysia has an ambitious 5-year target of reaching RM500mil PATAMI by the end of year 2024.

Its PATAMI in 2019 was just RM160mil, which means it has to grow at a CAGR of at least 25% over 5 years to achieve its target.

It is not an easy task for sure.

However, its highest PATAMI was RM265mil in 2018. This makes its RM500mil target looks a bit more within reach. 

It has 1,074mil of ordinary shares, with no future earning dilution except ESOS at the moment.

If it can achieve RM500mil PATAMI, then its EPS will be 46.5sen. 

If we simply give it a PE ratio of 10x, it will be worth RM4.65.

Now its share price is trading at RM1.30. Is it attractive?

Is It Time To Invest In US Stock Market?

At the end of 2020, I was bullish on the stock market in 2021.

It should be a recovery year from the pandemic as Covid-19 vaccines were rolled out in stages.

Now we are approaching the end of year 2021, and it turns out to be a tough year for stock market in Malaysia.

Unless you packed your portfolio with quality tech stocks, it's very likely that you will close year 2021 with a loss.

If you have Genetec or Kobay in your portfolio early in 2021 and hold on to them until now, you will be big winner in 2021.

Genetec rode a rocket from RM1.80 to RM50 while Kobay jumped from RM2.40 to RM18 (adjusted to bonus issue).

I had Genetec in my portfolio at the start of 2021 at a cost of RM1.49, only to have sold them "happily" at RM4.20...