Sunway Belfield vs Sunway Shares

 

In Sep 2020, when the world was still full of uncertainties due to Covid-19 pandemic, I decided to invest in a new property in KL.

This would be a much less ideal investment because I was not qualified to get 90% bank loan but in the end, I still decided to proceed as I like the whole package of this development so much.

It is located at KL city center, within walking distance to the upcoming Merdeka 118 precinct, close to monorail/MRT stations, freehold, built by renowned developer Sunway and selling at RM750 psf for its smallest unit. 

It appeared to be a "bargain" to me at least, compared to nearby Opus Residences & BBCC's Lucentia Residences which were well above RM1,500 psf. 

Now the project has achieved VP in Mac25 and I have collected the keys in Apr25. Do I regret my decision to invest in Sunway Belfield?

New Blog Title: BD's Road To Financial Freedom

 

Recently my Facebook page for this blog has been blocked due to infringement of rights of Bursa Malaysia.

Although there was a chance to appeal, I decided not to do so since I was not active in FB page anyway. That FB page just provides links to this blog.

Sooner or later, I think I might get the same warning from Blogger so I'd better change the blog's name first.

I'm not sure what kind of infringement I got reported for. Is it the "old" Bursa logo, the word "Bursa" in the blog name, or my blog contents?

If my blog suddenly disappear or becomes not accessible, then you should know what happens.

Case Study: Property Investment No.1

 

My first property purchase, which was also my biggest investment at that time, was a home for my family.

It was in August of 2009 which was around 15.5 years ago.

The property is a newly launched double storey semi-detached (DSSD) house in a gated community bought at a price of RM348,000 directly from property developer.

I was lucky because at that time the property boom was just about to start.

The selling price of new similar properties in the vicinity increased rapidly, in which new launches were snapped up like buying vegetables in the market.

At the time when I moved into my new house in the fourth quarter of 2012, the market value was already close to RM500,000.

Currently the launching price of new smaller size DSSD in the same area is well above RM700,000.

My Stock Investment Journey: 2013-2023

 

I'm not that young anymore.

I bought my first shares in the stock market back in mid 2006, not long after I started working.

So officially I've been in the stock market for almost 18 years. This sounds like I must be a very experienced investor, isn't it?

Even though I'm in and out of the stock market during this period of time, I think I have gained some experience but not so much compared to what I'd have hoped for.

In my early days of blogging, there was one blogger who just graduated from university and stepped into the stock market as a rookie.

After years of cultivation and perseverance, now he has become a successful and respectable investor & entrepreneur, with immense knowledge and experience in the stock market.

I may have started in front of him but I'm just languishing behind him by many streets now...

Better Late Than Never

I feel fortunate to realize the importance of financial planning just before I started working.

As we all know, schools do not teach us financial planning, be it in secondary schools, colleges or universities.

My parent did not teach me about it either and we definitely did not talk about it among friends during our school days.

I knew about it after reading a book regarding financial planning while waiting to start my working career.

When you know about it and start to practice it, it doesn't mean that you are already good at it or you can do it in a right way.

It takes time to understand and perfect the art of financial planning.

Never-Ending Car Loans

Financial planners always say: If you have money, don't buy a car, buy a house first.

It makes sense, a house appreciates with time but a car depreciates. If you really need a car, go for a second hand or the cheapest car you can get.

When I started my working career, I worked outstation and I needed a car badly. My family only had an old Proton Iswara and there was no extra car for me.

Obviously, I had to buy a car even before I got my first paycheck.

At that time, my take home salary was slightly above RM2000 per month. Which car do you think I should buy?

How To Earn >100% in A Stock?

When I started this " Bursa Dummy" blog in 2011, I like to read other investment blogs too.

At that time, I felt that many investors were "dreaming" of finding a "gem" in stock market which can double its share price, or give 100% gain.（开番）

As a relatively new stock market investor, I was also dreaming to catch such a stock which can give me 100% gain.

Now, after 10 years of experience in the stock market, I find that making 100% gain in a particular stock is not that important anymore, even though it's actually simple to make 100% gain in a single stock.

What!? It's simple to make 100% in a stock? You must be "cocky" or arrogant in saying so.

However, let me tell you first the secret to make 100% or more in a stock.

Big Decision: Property or Not

I mentioned in Sep20 that I'm interested to purchase another property for investment. I'm not just simply talking only, it's for real.

I thought I will not invest in another property again after my last purchase in 2012 but now the HOC announced in Jun20 has encouraged me to look for one.

The main reason is the removal of the 70% financing cap for a third home loan during the HOC period.

I've been out of property investment for quite a long time, and I'm not up-to-date regarding recent projects and price trend. 

After doing some research and attending some webinars about property investment, finally I made a decision to purchase a unit in Klang Valley.

However, one day before I was supposed to place my booking, I realized that I'm NOT entitled to 90% loan for a third residential property!

Best Opportunity Missed in Mac20-May20: What The Hell Were In My Mind?

Finally, year 2020 comes to an end. 

Everyone in the world will remember it as a pandemic year. What have you learnt from this turbulent year?

To me, I'm grateful that so far I have not been negatively affected by this pandemic. My family and I are still in one piece and I still have my job.

Malaysia implemented its nationwide lockdown (MCO) on 18th Mac 2020. Surely it was a new experience for all Malaysians.

I still need to travel to work though, and I like the feeling of driving on roads without other vehicles.

At the same time, we had a scary stock market and oil price crash on top of the back door government change.

What have I done and what was in my mind at that time?

Case Study: Property Investment No.5

My last property purchase was back in April 2012, which was more than 8 years ago.

My in-laws used to stay in relative's house. When that house was sold, they were forced to rent a house.

Instead of paying rentals every month, I thought it's better to get a house and pay the loan. 

So I decided to buy a house in the same area of my house for them.

At that time, developer was planning to build apartment priced above RM230k there, and 8-year-old landed freehold single storey terrace houses there were asking for around RM130k.

My instinct told me to grab one before it's too late.

Should You Invest In Unit Trust?

After I started my working life, my first investment was unit trust.

Unit trust or mutual fund is a pool of money collected from individual investors and managed by fund managers, who invest the fund in various investment vehicles either locally or/and abroad.

I didn't have any idea regarding financial planning and investment until I graduated from university in 2004.

While waiting for employment, I read a book "Financial Freedom" published by Public Mutual (formerly KL Mutual) and there was no surprise that I bought unit trust first.

There was also no surprise that my first unit trust was bought from Public Mutual.

Property vs Stock Market Investment

There is no doubt that property and stock market are the two most popular investment not only in Malaysia, but all around the world.

Which one is a better investment?

A successful property investor will tell you that property investment is better and stock market is too risky.

A successful stock market investor will tell you that stock market is better and property is too slow.

When I started my investment journey, I started with unit trust and then stock market. The reason is simple, how can a person with a saving of RM7000 and monthly salary of slightly over RM2000 invest in property?

Am I A True Value Investor?

The answer is NO. 

Why I say so? Just look at my past completed trades since 2013 in "History" page, will any true value investors invest in companies like Geshen, HHGroup, Jadi, Asiapac, Daya, Complete, Notion & Adventa?

I read and heard from other teachers that in fundamental investment, one should invest in well-established, industry leading type of companies with competitive edge or margin of safety.

In my previous investment portfolio, you won't see any big cap companies and blue chips.

Value investors usually won't invest in loss-making companies with no presentable track records but I still put my money in them.

How Do I Choose A Stock To Buy?

A reader asked me how do I filter the stocks to buy. It's not easy to answer.

To make it short, I don't have a systematic way when it comes to selecting a company for investment. 

I'm not sure whether there is any established or better way to select or filter from a list of close to one thousand listed companies.

Basically, I have done it in many ways and I'll briefly discuss about them here.

First, I'll start with how I come to know a stock.

Screen through every single companies painstakingly

This was the method I used when I first joined the stock market back in year 2005. At that time, internet information was scarce. 

There was a thick book like a "Yellow Pages", which contained the information of all the listed companies in KLSE such as the business nature, historical revenue/profit, financial ratios such as EPS, ROE, PE ratio, debt/equity, as well as historical price chart.

I can't remember the name of this white & green colour book now as I have lost it many years ago.

Before I bought my first shares, I read a few investment books and I decided to follow their suggestion by looking at the fundamentals of the companies. So I made a stock selection criteria of ROE >15%, EPS growth >15% for at least 3 years & PE <10.

With these criteria, I screened through every companies in that thick book one by one. At last I came out with a few companies that matched the criteria. I still remember that the first 2 stocks I bought were Mahsing & WCT, and I made a profit from them.

Anyway, that kind of book is not published anymore due to the abundance of information which can be easily obtained on the internet.

Use KLSE Screener

Many years ago I came across this tool. I'm sure that most readers know what is it all about. You just need to key in your selection criteria (PE, ROE, DY, EPS etc) and the software will filter for you.

This is very easy and fast, and you can do it on your computer or smartphones. However, I seldom use it and don't really use it to select stocks since I started this blog.

From articles and news

Basically I do not actively look for a stock to buy, as investing in stock market is not a big part in my life, yet. I am quite passive.

I don't read business news and watch the stock market everyday. I do it sporadically when the interest comes and when I have the time.

You know, there are many articles that promote a stock in investment forum such as i3investor, some are very good and some are not. 

When a company secures a contract, reports good profit, ventures into new business or encounters headwinds, the news will certainly appear on online news portal such as The Star, The Edge and for Chinese, Sin Chew & Nan Yang. 

If the headlines of an article or news catch my attention, I will read them and sometimes it will lead me to study the company and then invest in it.

Analyst reports

I have trading accounts with Public Investment Bank & Hong Leong Investment Bank. However, I do not login to view all the reports because I only login when I plan to trade.

I read those analyst reports from i3investor, thanks to all the people that share them there. 

Analyst reports are a very important and useful tool for me. There are many information that retail investors like us have no access into. So, we need to depend on professional analysts who attend the company's AGM, investor briefing session or interview the management.

Regarding the target price derived by analysts, just take it as a reference and come out with your own target price. 

Of course different people have different opinion, and no one can predict the future with 100% accuracy. For Bumi Armada as example, someone gives it a target price of 10sen, while some value it at 56sen. That's a huge difference.

Now that Armada is at 26sen, who do you want to follow?

Quarterly Financial Reports

A listed company must release financial report every 3 months, we can get a lot of information from it.

Besides the revenue & profit, we can have a glimpse at its latest balance sheet & cash flow. The management will also explain the performance of the quarterly results and give a prospect of its business.

When a company has a good financial quarter, sometimes it catches my attention to further study it, IF I happen to bump into it as I only read 10-20 of those quarterly reports every 3 months.

I think this is a very common way for me to identify a stock to buy.

Before 2013, I only looked at the revenue and profit, EPS, ROE & PE ratio while making a decision.

After that, I include the balance sheet and cash flow, although not in a very detail fashion. I don't have accounting background, and have no one to ask except Mr Google when I have doubts.

I don't read annual reports unless from my invested companies or companies I plan to study. 

There is another way that can help me to find a good stock which I haven't use yet, which is subscribing to fundamental-based "Sifus" or other experienced investors.

I know that it might be a very good way to earn quick bucks from doing this. Many newbies and speculators pay the fee, and will surely buy when a stock is recommended as "buy call". This might push up the share price and quick profit can be made just like that.

Subscribing to such service can increase my chance of catching a stock with good potential, as I mention earlier that I'm quite passive in stock market and can't screen through all those listed companies and read all the announcement by myself.

At the moment, I still haven't join such groups. I'm still all alone.

How do I filter those stocks to decide whether to invest in them or not?

There are no strict rules now like I used to have in the past. Last time I set criteria for EPS growth, PE ratio, ROE, D/E ratio, DY etc. I usually don't go deeper into ROIC, FCF, PEG ratio & EV as I'm not a true value investor.

Let me show a few real examples of how I bought a stock in the past, if I still remember them correctly.

Latitude Tree

I first noticed Latitude after it released a very good quarterly results in Nov 2013. Then I studied its previous quarterly reports, annual reports and company website. I checked its previous announcement from Bursa Malaysia website. There was no analyst cover and not many news on this company. I found out from Bursa announcement that it was in the process of acquiring the remaining shares of its very profitable Vietnam operation. I projected the future earning and it's a no-brainer. 

Inari

If my memory serves me right, I first knew about Inari from a news article in Jun 2013. At that time, Inari was still a small little-known company and had proposed to acquire much bigger Amertron of the Philippines. It certainly caught my attention and the same process started. I checked its previous quarterly & annual reports, previous Bursa announcement, searched for online news and visited the company website. 

I remember that before I bought Inari shares at around 70sen (22sen now after adjustment), its share price has just rallied from 30-40sen to 70sen in a short period of time. Most investors commented that since it had already gone up 100%, it was very risky to buy at that time. I bought it anyway. Sometimes we have to ignore the noise of forummers and believe in our own judgement. Inari proves to be a big success for me. 

KESM

I came across an article or news shared by someone in i3investor about KESM in Jan 2016. It looked good to me and I decided to study it further. I saw that there was significant jump in its latest 2 quarters and by simple forward PE estimation, it was deemed undervalued for me. At that time its share price was falling from RM6 and I got it at RM4.80 and then around RM3.90 when it dropped further, with average price of RM4.42. 

It's lucky for me that its financial performance were good and share price kept increasing to over RM22. I sold some at RM20 and the rest at only RM8+. 

Geshen

I can't remember exactly how I came to know this company, which was a very cold and unknown company. From my record, I bought its shares on Mac 2015. I think may be from its previous quarterly result announcement in Feb 2015 which showed a significant jump in its net profit. It's not a very exciting result but I found out that it has just disposed its two loss-making subsidiaries and planned to acquire a growing profit-making peer. I felt that it would start a new page of growth and bought its shares. It was a great investment for me.

YOCB

This was just a coincidence. I was studying a company with a name of Yokohama in Aug 2013. When I searched for it in Bursa website, I saw another company alongside it with a strange name of "YOCB" which attracted my attention. That's how I started to study this company out of curiosity. I bought it because of its low PE ratio and good dividend. It was not a bad investment for me though I might have sold it too early.

Tambun

This is easy. I bought my first property from Tambun Indah and I certainly knew it well. As I was more focused in property investment at that time between 2008 and 2013, I knew a lot of other property companies and their projects.

At that time Tambun bought a vast landbank cheaply at Bandar Tasek Mutiara, which is located at Seberang Perai Selatan of Penang. We know that the nearby Batu Kawan is the next big thing. New projects were launched aggressively and each of them was rapidly sold out. So, it's also a no-brainer during such a property boom. 

Huayang 

Not every property stocks I bought at that time made money. Of all my completed buy-sell transaction up to today, the largest loss was Huayang, followed by Tropicana, both are property stocks. Huayang needs no introduction to investors at that time. Its revenue & profit was growing steadily, gave away mouth-watering dividends and multiple bonus issues. 

I felt like I missed the boat and always dreamed of owning its shares. Finally I became its shareholder in Sep 2014 at RM2.32, the price level which later proved to be at the peak. Even though subsequent quarterly results were good even with EPS of 11sen for 5 consecutive quarters, its share price just didn't go up but continued to drop instead. If we give a PE of 10x the share price should be at least RM4. Finally I cut loss at RM1.83 after 1 year and 4 months. Property was in the negative trend and we could not beat the trend.

PPHB

I found out this stock after it released its FY19Q1 results in May19. The result was nothing spectacular, just that the market gave it a low PE of around 5x. After studying it like usual, there seemed to be slow growth in this company and I believed that its products have more demand nowadays. I bought in May19 and only in the end of 2019, the stocks price started to jump.

I would say that most of the time I find a company to invest through its quarterly financial report, while PE ratio and growth prospect are the main things I look at to decide whether to invest in it, although the debt ratio & simple cash flow still play a part.

So, how should you filter or select a company to invest in? The answer is read more, and do your own homework.

To Buy or Not To Buy

Last week, US stock market just recorded the biggest single-day jump since 2008, with DJIA up more than 9%.

Today, KLCI dropped another 64.12 points or 4.77% to close at 1,280 points. Another bloodbath day.

Either you have a bit of cash or lots of cash, surely you are asking yourself:

- When is the best time to buy stock?

- What is the best stock to buy?

- This stock's share price has dropped 50%. Can I buy now?

- That stock's PE ratio is just 5x. Can I buy now?

Everyone dreams of buying at the lowest point, AND catching the stock which rebound the most. Yes it can be done, only in dream.

Stock market is like a roller coaster recently. Today the market fell the most since so many years, then the next day it jumped the most in recent history.

This morning you saw the stock market dropped like hell and you felt relieved that you didn't buy any shares yesterday.

Later in the afternoon all the stocks shot up 10-20% from low and you regretted not buying in the morning.

Then the next day those shares fell to new low and you felt very lucky that you didn't buy yet.

Investors' emotion are also riding on a roller coaster.

So, when is the best time to buy shares in this situation?

No one will know the lowest point for sure. Today might be the lowest point, you buy now you win. May be Dec 2020 will be the lowest point, you buy now then it's not ideal.

During 2008's bear market, KLCI started to drop from its height in early Dec 2007 and only reached the bottom in early Oct 2008. So it took 10 months to reach bottom.

It then lingered at the bottom for around 5 months until early Mac 2009, when it began its uptrend journey and met its previous high in May 2010.

Financial crisis 2008 took 10 months to drop, 5 months to rest until it showed sign of bottoming out.

So, isn't it ideal to enter the market during the 5-months trough?

Currently, even though KLCI has its previous high of nearly 1,900 points in April 2018 which is almost 2 years ago, the actual bear market feeling only started from Jan 2020 when the KLCI was 1,600 points.

In 2008, KLCI dropped approximately 40% from 1,450 to 850 points. If it were to drop in similar magnitude, we might see KLCI drop another 300 points to 1,000 points.

If Covid-19 is the main culprit of current bear market. Is the worst over? Far from over.

Europe's numbers are rising alarmingly, so does Malaysia.

Yesterday there was 190 new cases of Covid-19 in Malaysia. Today there are another 125 new cases, bringing the total to 553 cases.

We all know what is the situation like now, the virus has already spread among the public. We should see many more cases being confirmed in the coming weeks.

It might be a matter of days when our numbers exceed 1000 and grow exponentially.

We don't have the luxury to hospitalized all confirmed cases by then, and we need the discipline of self-quarantine. 

We won't have enough ventilators to support those who are ill with severe pneumonia as well.

How about the other countries with relatively low count now? Is that logically possible? I think it is only possible because there are not many screening or contact tracing done. If those countries explode, the neighbouring countries might get second wave or third wave of outbreak.

The virus threat will surely go away one day, just like what we witness in China & South Korea. By then, how much damage will it do to the world, and how long will it take to recover?

How many orders deferred or lost? How much the sales drop? How many loan repayment defaulted? How many companies will go bankrupt? How many people will be jobless?

Now, more & more leaders come out to warn that this time it will be as bad or even worse than previous financial crisis. Such acts only make the market plunge deeper.

For me, while it definitely does not look good at the moment, once the fear of Covid-19 subsided, people will continue to travel and shop right? Will we see a quick rebound?

Anyway, what we can do now is to play our part in fighting Covid-19 so that it will end early.

To Sell or Not To Sell

Today is the worst day of Bursa Malaysia since the 2008 crisis. KLCI surrendered 74.68 points or 5.26% to close at 1320.96 points.

At this moment, some investors might have already sold ALL of their shares.

Some might still hold a few stocks, either already kept for months or years, or just bought recently during the drastic drop but only to see them drop deeper.

If you still hold shares now, you might have a doubt:

- Should I sell now to minimize loss since it's likely to drop further?

- Should I just hold since it has dropped so much and unlikely to drop further?

These are very difficult questions to answer, as I think the answer should be individualized.

We have different stocks, different cost price, different risk appetite, different mind strength, different cash level & cash flow etc. So it's good to work out a plan that suit you the most.

I can't remember very well exactly when I started my stock market investment. I started working in 2004, and bought my first unit trust fund in the same year.

If not mistaken, I should have bought my first stock around 2006 and I can remember the first 2 stocks I bought were WCT & Mahsing.

Even though I started to join the stock market before the 2008 financial crisis, frankly speaking I don't have a clear memory what happened to me during the market crash.

I don't have any painful memory, nor any exciting memory. In the other words, I seem to learn nothing from that bear market in 2008.

Perhaps I was not that active in stock market or did not hold lots of stocks at that time.

Now it's definitely different, I have so many stocks in hands going into year 2020. I must have a plan when bear strikes.

If you read my blog recently, you should have known that I have a plan to sell stocks to trim my portfolio, and also in anticipation of potential bear market.

Even after clearing 5 stocks, now I still have 11 stocks with me which I decided earlier not to sell first. Holding so many at this point of time, too bad isn't it?

Out of those 11 stocks, I think Matrix & BAuto are well-managed companies supported by fantastic dividend yield. Both are not that overvalued as well that's why I decided not to sell.

Anyway, share price of both stocks still fell significantly but I'm not too worry about them. Financial crisis will affect their sales but low interest environment should benefit them.

Scientex is also a magnificent company which is traded rather cheaply while it's still growing its business. After it announced its latest financial result few days ago, I had a dilemma whether I should sell it first to lock in the gain, and buy back later as almost certainly the share price will drop.

At this moment I haven't sell Scientex's shares as I just feel not right to sell. Will its business affected by Covid-19? I don't think it has direct long term negative effect but I know that low crude oil price should benefit it.

DKSH is a company which is also not traded at high PE ratio and has decent dividend yield. I think it is undervalued and plan to add. How can I sell if I have plan to add more shares?

My cost for Notion is quite low at 40sen. I can sell all at above 80sen and take home a handsome 100% profit. However, I decided against selling them because I have plan to "average up" if the price fall to lower level.

Notion's share may fall to 60sen and even 40sen or lower, then surely I will regret my decision not to sell early but what to do? No one can predict the market precisely.

These 5 stocks above are my "winning stocks" that I decided earlier against selling. Now of course share prices of all of them have dropped and BAuto and DKSH suffer paper loss.

The rest are deep in trouble.

Before that I have 3 high PE tech related stocks. These type of stocks have been pushed up high and are risky to fall harder.

I have cleared Inari & Frontken, but left Krono behind.

If I can foresee that Krono can drop to 40sen, I will definitely cut loss at above 60sen and buy back at 40sen. However, even Feng Shui Master Joey Yap also can't foresee this to happen.

After Krono's FY19Q4 result, I have a bit of doubt whether its business and profit can grow as expected. I'm also not sure how Covid-19 can affect it in short term.

This makes me a bit hesitant to average down Krono. I think I might need to wait for another quarter.

When I bought Geshen last month at 43sen, I thought I got a good price as its shares are really hard to buy due to low liquidity.

Because of this, one sell transaction can see the share price drop by more than 10%, another buy transaction can raise the price 10%.

Geshen might be at higher risk of being affected by Covid-19 and all these supply-demand disruption issues. Though it seems like the company has invested a lot on new machinery and capabilities in its Malaysia & Vietnam operations, I might have bought it too early.

Hibiscus should be able to make profit even if the crude oil price is at USD40. I think crude oil price will not stay at low level for a long long time. Once it rebounds, so will Hibiscus's share price.

Perhaps I should have sold all Prolexus & LeonFB shares just like Latitude. All these feel like "dead wood" because it seems not easy for them to grow well from here. Everything seems tough for them.

Both are deep in paper loss. They have dropped so much but still can drop further. Since they are still doing business as usual, it looks weird if I sell now at big loss.

Lastly I would like to announce the winner of "The best performing stock" in my current portfolio in 2020 - Daya. It doesn't drop!

Those 6 stocks (Krono, Geshen, Hibiscus, Prolexus, LeonFB & Daya) are losing stocks. After giving so much explanation and excuses of why I didn't sell yet, the main reason is "unwillingness to realize loss", haha.

Some of you might think that I should sell all those hopeless losing stocks in my portfolio, get the cash and put them in better quality stocks which can rebound faster than others.

Ya, I agree and this sounds very logical. However, I don't do it due to various reasons, at least for now. May be I will change my mind in the near future, I don't know.

With ample cash in hand, next question will be: When and what should I buy?

Year 2020: Cautiously Optimistic?

February 2020 should be a forgettable month for most stock market investors.

If you're making loss so far in year 2020, you're definitely not alone. The loss might just be temporary and you might still register positive return at the end of the year. 

For me, surely I'm heavily affected. Even without calculation of the return I already knew that year to date I'm making loss.

I have a plan in place since Jan20 to trim my portfolio which has too many stocks. I already have a list of stocks in mind to clear.

However, I decided to wait until the latest quarterly report announcement in Feb20. This has proven to be a bad decision in hindsight.

Escalating concern over Covid19 worldwide, sudden political crisis and last but not least, out of expectation's CY19Q4 financial results all sent the stock price tumbling.

Is it a temporary setback with quick rebound, or will it be the beginning of a prolonged bear market?

Of course no one knows but if you ask me, I think generally year 2020 might not be a good year for stock market.

KLCI has dropped more than 20% from peak of 1,900 in mid 2018. Currently it stands at 1,482.

I'm still not sure to what extent Covid19 will affect the economy in Malaysia & worldwide. Some companies may benefit from it and vice versa. We can only get a glimpse of it in CY20Q1 financial results to be announced in May.

A lot of experts expect the Covid19 fear to subside comes May, as the weather gradually turns hot, just like SARS in 2003.

However, Covid19 seems to be highly contagious and definitely affected more people and countries. Up to today, more than 86,000 Covid19 cases have been reported in 64 countries, and we have countries like South Korea, Iran & Italy which reported exponential rise in cases recently.

In contrast SARS has affected only 29 countries with only 8096 cases reported. Fortunately, the mortality rate of Covid19 is not as high as SARS.

Anyway, we can be 100% sure that Covid19 impact will be over one day, just the matter of when. Two months later, six months later or even one year?

Airlines and tourism industries will no doubt be negatively affected. Those companies who depend a lot on China as customers or suppliers or producers might also feel the heat.

Regarding the political turmoil in Malaysia, it seems to be settled but it might not be in reality. I'm really sick of politics and won't make any comment here.

So far I have trimmed my portfolio a bit last week but not in the way I wanted to. I keep more cash now as planned. I don't know whether I'll regret that later.

I'll remind myself, fear in stock market gives opportunity.

Year 2019 Review: Crawling Back

In early 2019, O&G sector seems to gain more attention. If I remember correctly, at that time Cold Eye wrote some articles encouraging investors to look into O&G stocks after being depressed for so long.

Though I didn't read a lot at that time, somehow I came across those articles and I agreed with him. So it brought back a bit of my desire to study and buy something in stock market.

I went through some of the O&G companies and short-listed 3 of them as potential buy: Armada, Dayang & Hibiscus.

During CNY gathering with friends, inevitably our conversation will touch a bit on stock market. When I mentioned about O&G stocks, most were not that interested.

Out of the 3 aforementioned O&G stocks, I actually bought one of them, you guess what, it's Hibiscus... sigh...

I bought Hibiscus mainly because I saw its cost per barrel of oil is so low below USD20, seems to have a good management team and debt free some more. At the same time I was worried about the debts of Armada & Dayang.

So there goes a chance to start 2019 with a bang...

Share price of Dayang at that time was around 70-80sen, now everyone knows that it is about RM2.60 after a famous investor goes onboard.

My Hibiscus shares were bought at RM1.05, so now at around 95sen it's suffering from paper loss.

Apart from Hibiscus, I did add 3 other new stocks in the first half of 2019, and another one towards the end of 2019.

Not long after CNY, after feeling bullish on the demand of those 7nm thing, I added Frontken into my portfolio at 96sen. This proves to be a good move.

Almost at the same time, I purchased DKSH after it has dropped so much from above RM4 probably because it raised a lot of debts to buy "SCS butter".

Personally I like this acquisition long term wise, so I just jumped in at RM2.50.

In May19, some packaging companies started to catch my attention. I tried to choose between Master-Pack & Public Packages. Finally I picked PPHB... may be I should get both...

At that time Master share price has started to move but still at around 80sen, now it is around RM2.50. Missed it just like Dayang.

My purchase price for PPHB is 56.5sen, so currently at RM1.22 it still breaks the 100% gain mark. A consolation prize.

Revenue Group was in my radar when news broke out that it is partnering with Lazada in July19. I observed it for some time and had a chance to grab it at RM1.50.

However, its PE ratio is uncomfortable to me, and I planned to wait until Q4 results. The Q4 result was good and later it declared bonus issue, so the share price shot up higher and I could only wave goodbye to it.

After missing out on Revenue, I manage to spot Kronologi Asia in Dec19 and decided to add it into my portfolio at 76sen.

Besides buying, I cleared all shares of Hevea, Complete & KESM in the first half of 2019, and sold some Inari shares in Oct 2019.

Hevea is a sad story for me. I bought its share in May15 at RM3.10 (adjusted to 77.5sen). Its share price went up to almost RM1.80 in 2016 & 2017 before I finally sold all in Mac19 at below my entry price at 65sen.

Wow, a 130% gain turned into loss just like that.

However, because of good dividends given out by Hevea throughout those 4 years, my investment in Hevea still generates 10% return.

On the same day I sold all Hevea shares, I also "reluctantly" sold all my remaining KESM shares at RM8.50. As my average entry price is RM4.42, and I sold some shares before at RM20, KESM has given me my best realized gain so far at 210%.

Complete Logistic which I bought at 76.5sen, is another stock that I sold all in 2 transaction. I sold half at RM1.18 in Feb17 and finally cleared all in May19 at 76sen. This translates into a gain of 27%.

You know what, within 2 months after I sold all Complete shares, the company unexpectedly announced an incredible 16sen of dividend! What the XX

When Inari staged a brief rally in Oct19, I sold some at RM2.02. This is the fourth time I sold Inari shares since acquiring them in mid 2013.

For my existing stocks, Latitude, Leonfb & Daya continue to decline in 2019 while Notion, Prolexus & Stock X registered good gain.

If I did almost nothing in 2019 like 2018, my portfolio performance might be flat or even may be in loss. Frontken & PPHB have certainly contributed to an overall positive return of 26.8% in year 2019.

I feel that this result is nothing to shout about since there are so so many stocks that go up so much in 2019.

That's my story in stock market in year 2019. I have too many stocks at this moment, 15 in total! My target is to have 8-10 stocks and this year should be the year to clean my portfolio.

It's Been Two Years...

It's been 2 years since I last wrote something in this blog. Yes, basically this blog has been abandoned.

I have been, temporarily I would say, out of stock market investment because of other commitment.

I didn't follow market news, I seldom look the the share price, and I rarely read any financial reports or annual reports even from the companies that I hold.

During the year of 2017 which was the time when I started to spend most of my time away from stock market, I just bought 3 stocks: Jaks, Prolexus & Stock X, and took profit on quite a few.

In 2018, which was my least active year in stock market, I still managed to buy one stock which proved to be the worst investment so far.

After CNY of 2019, I started to have a little bit of interest to be more involved in stock market. However, I found it quite hard to do so and didn't know how to start. I was lazy to read business news and study financial reports. It seems like I've got not enough time, or may be the interest was not strong enough.

I tried to revive this Bursa Dummy blog, but didn't know what to write. 

As we stepped into 2020, I suddenly got the interest to know how my portfolio has performed exactly in 2019, as I guess that it should be good.

So I spent a lot of time calculating my portfolio value at the end of each month from Jan 2018 to Dec 2019, including finding out all the dividends I received, which was quite painstaking.

Finally I got the results. Year 2018 was very bad as expected. You can see yourself from the stocks that I hold at the end of Dec 2017, and find out how much each and every stock has fallen apart, especially KESM.

Year 2019 was a good year with positive return, even though it is not as high as previous years.

In the next few days, I will write briefly on my portfolio return in both 2018 & 2019.

Yes! At least I have something more to write in this blog.

Stocks in Watch List

I have stayed out of the stock market temporarily since February this year after Chinese New Year. However, it doesn't mean that I am totally out of it.

It's true that I didn't read a lot of market news. I seldom check the price and news of companies in my watch list, and didn't watch the stock market live in action.

I do check the price and announcement of the stocks in my portfolio but not on daily basis. I still summarize my portfolio performance every month, even though I wrote and published them late. I seldom log into my blog as well as I have limited time to write.

Five months have passed now and year-to-date my portfolio is at negative 13%. So I have a mountain to climb if I were to achieve a 30% annual return for 2016. Is it possible?

I think I should be grateful if my portfolio can end this year in positive territory.

Recently I just checked the share price movement of all the stocks in my watch list & alert list. Some stocks really surprise me.

A few stocks have gone up recently and some stocks have dropped to my previous targeted entry level. Should I consider to buy now?

Even though I am not close to the stock market in this period of time, I still know that Airasia and Airasia X which are not in my watch list, have generated substantial interest among investors and as a result, their share prices have already doubled this year.

For the first half of this year, I only bought 2 stocks which are KESM and TekSeng. There are few other stocks that I seriously consider to buy early this year, they are SAM, PRLEXUS, TGUAN & SUPERLON.

Of course I did not buy them until now, as I hope to limit export-orientated stocks in my portfolio. Besides Prolexus, all the other 3 have gained significantly especially TGuan, which has left me punching my own chest.

Construction sector seems to rock at the moment, with impressive share price performance in KERJAYA (Fututech), GADANG, GKENT & MITRA. However, MUDAJYA, JAKS & PTARAS seem to lag behind.

May be I should have bought Gadang when I wrote about it in September last year. It was like a no-brainer bet at RM1.18 then, but I missed it... and missed a chance for a 100% gain in less than a year.

On the other hand, plantation and property sectors, as widely expected, are as cold as ice this year.

Besides those construction companies mentioned earlier, I still have 3 others property-related stocks in my watch list, they are MKH, PARAMON & WEIDA. MKH's share price seems to do well but not the other two.

SIGN, whose performance should be closely linked to property sector, seems to recover a bit from slump in share price in early 2016.

For plantation, I have MKH, CBIP, BUMITAMA & FIRST RES. First Resources has its share price fallen quite a lot but I'm still hesitating whether I should start to accumulate it.

I only follow three O&G related stocks which are COASTAL, FAVCO & PANTECH, even though all of them are not genuine O&G stocks. Their share prices do not perform well in the first half of 2016 as crude oil price still stays relatively low below USD50.

The stock that surprise me a lot is YOCB in which its share price suddenly soars 50% in the last 2 months from 90sen to RM1.35. I have sold all its shares in Dec 2014 at 98sen but now market decides to give it higher PE ratio.

Another stock that makes me wonder is ULICORP, I don't quite understand why its share price can keep on climbing. I still have not study this stock in detail even though it's always in my watch list.

I placed OCK in my watch list because of its venture into Myanmar. Its share price has moved up since Mac16.

On tech related stocks, UNISEM, MMSV & PENTA have made significant gain recently. One of my customer who works in Penta told me some time in Q4 last year that they received lots of orders and have to work extra hard. I guess its subsequent quarterly result should be good.

I always hope to have a healthcare-related stocks in my portfolio. Both ADVENTA & YSPSAH's share price have retreated from their height and could it be a buying opportunity?

Other export-orientated stocks that do not perform quite well up to this time include CHINWEL, HOMERIZ, KAREX, LCTH, LUXCHEM, MAGNI & WELLCAL.

MIKROMB's share price also dropped a bit. This stock is quite "steady" and will be promoted to main board sooner or later.

As I have one logistic stock in my portfolio, I also watch CENTURY & TASCO more closely. All 3 stocks are trading sideways at the moment and don't seem to benefit a lot from low oil price.

For consumer stocks, share prices of PADINI, SCGM & WANGZNG have made a move upwards, while TEOSENG & YEELEE still remain almost the same compared to March this year.

Those are the stocks in my watch list which has not been updated for almost half a year. I'm sure that some of them are already "outdated" and there are many new potential stocks emerging now.

Year-to-date, I get the feeling that Malaysia's stock market does not perform too well. However, investors can still make money anytime in a stock market, as long as they can pick the correct stock at the right time.

Not only at the right time, but also at the right price too.