Hundred Shots Fired, Hundred Hit Targets

I just came to know a local investment blog not too long ago. Apparently many people have already followed it much earlier.

A very special phenomenon is, every time this blog publishes an analysis regarding a stock, on the same day itself the share price of that particular stock will jump.

It's really a gap-up JUMP, and the "success rate" is almost 100% recently. Don't play play.

Investors & speculators especially, might wish to have a look at this blog Bonescythe Stock Watch.

I think Bonescythe is a very experienced & dedicated stock market investor, who shares his analysis of stocks free of charge just like we have 十面埋伏 for Chinese version.

If he let other people subscribe & pay for his "stock analysis & tips service", I'm sure that there will be a lot of subscribers. May be I'll be one of them.

Bonescythe usually publishes his articles after midnight. Even if you are the number 1 person to read his new article, you might not get a clear advantage as when the market opens few hours later, it will open at a gap-up price.

If you enter at this time, you can either gain or lose in short term.

If the stock is extremely undervalued or if you plan to stay for long term, then you might have a better chance to gain from it.

       LIONFIB: Jump and Up further

       PPHB: Jump & Fly higher

       EURO: Jump & Hanging On

       Even the "notorious" LONBISC responded

       DOLMITE: Jump but straight down

Besides Bonescythe, there are still other famous investment blogs which have the "power" to push the stock price up & down, but none is as prominent as Bonescythe so far.

When will Bonescythe write about the stocks that I have?

CSL: At Strong Support

CSL share price attempted to launch a comeback yesterday, but failed, temporarily.

The China-based stationery maker has its IPO under-subscribed by 50% back in Feb this year at 90sen per share. However, it made its debut brightly when its share price shot up to RM1.40 in the first 3 trading days. This translates into a 55% gain from its IPO price. After retreating to RM1.00, it surged again to touch RM1.90.

Currently it is again close to RM1 level, which should be a strong support technically. Will CSL try to rebound again next week? The chance is there.

      CSL: can it make a U-turn?

CSL recently announced a proposed bonus issue of warrants, with one warrant for every 2 existing ordinary CSL shares. This will increase the total shares 50% to 1,788,886,164 shares when all warrants are exercised. 

Financially, like most other China-based stocks listed here, CSL is considered good. It registers decent growth in revenue and net profit since year 2007, and seems to continue this trend in 2012 base on its strong 2012Q1 result.

RM mil	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Revenue	233	413	556	670	837
Net Profit	97	126	169	189	219

RM mil	2012Q1	2011Q1
Revenue	240	184
Net Profit	62	52

From my calculation, its EPS for FY2011 stands at 18.4sen, which gives a PE ratio of 5.6 now at RM1.03 per share, which is attractively low like other China stocks here. However, after the bonus issue of warrants, this figures will change.

In its prospectus, CSL proposed to give out at least 20% of net profit for dividend for FY2012, which is not very attractive.

China stocks are notorious for accounting fraud, do you think it's worth to invest? For short term, perhaps it is worth a try.

Dare To Catch A Falling Knife?

Last week Amedia's share price fell 26% in 5 trading days. I'm not sure why. It seems like there is no particular bad news, YET. 

Amedia's share price has been on a nice uptrend since Oct 2011. It has just released a strong earning recently and there is rumour that it is applying to transfer to main board. However, it has proposed a private placement of less than 10% of its share capital as well. 

     AMEDIA: At 100-day MA

Until today, Amedia's share price is still falling but seems to slow down a bit. Is it an opportunity to grab it now? Will it stage a rebound at 100-day moving average support? Or will it fill the gap below RM0.31?

There are a lot of strategies that one can take to invest or gamble in the stock market. Fundamentally, we can buy and hold long term. Technically we can buy according to various indicators from the price chart such as volume spike with price increase, MACD cross-over, price rebound/breakout at support/resistance level, low RSI etc. Some can even buy and sell without fundamental and technical analysis. They just rely on their "sixth sense", corporate news or exercise, and the law that everything that goes down must come up.

Personally, though I rarely buy shares which are dropping drastically, I do put an eye on them and place them on my watch list if I encounter one. The drop should be something like 10-20% or more in few days time. Of course, there must be a reason behind a sharp price drop, which can be serious or not so serious one. Is it because of company account fraud, poor financial report, loss of contract, court case, unfavourable news, change of management committee, share dumping by major shareholders, or just solely because of bad market sentiment? 

If it is just a short bear market run, then we can take the opportunity to grab some fundamentally-sound stocks. If it is other reasons, then there is always risk if you want to try your luck on them. You can end up catching a falling knife if you are not lucky.

In the early August and mid-September last year (2011), almost all the stocks in Bursa Malaysia suffered massive decline in few days time. However, if you were brave enough to pick them up when the falling momentum was interrupted, surely you could be smiling all the way as most of them staged a V-shape recovery.

Here are some examples of falling stocks and their outcome:

(A) Fall sharply but recover quickly, most fall are with the broad market

     AirAsia: Drop 22% and rebound higher

     Dialog: Drop 19% and recover well

     Kimlun: Drop 30% and correct shortly

     SPSetia: Drop 19% and got very lucky

     Cypark: Drop 20% and recovered in 3 days

     HiapTek: Drop 18% and a double bottom recovery

(B) Fall heavily but recover rather slowly

     MahSing: Drop 30% but recover steadily

     MSM: Drop 19% but slowly recover

     Sozo: Drop 22% and crawls back

     Sunway: Drop 35% after corporate exercise but worth the wait

     XinQuan: Drop 24% and there is still hope in China stock

(C) Caught A Falling Knife

     GPacket: Drop 27% and lingering there

     MEGB: Drop 30% and having real problem

     KNM: Drop 17% and drop and drop and drop

     MPAY: Drop 24% and never pay you back

     RA: Drop 38% and becoming trash paper?

     Ramunia: Drop 20% and will never see day light?

      Silver: Drop 50% and likely to be hopeless

Sozo: Ready To Climb?

Sozo's share price has fallen almost 20% from 65sen in the end of December last year, not sure why. Currently it reaches its temporary bottom at 51sen, which is also its support line. The MACD starts to converge and RSI in very much oversold area.

Today Sozo has seen some sign of reversal in the morning session, backed by heavy volume. Will this Khazanah-backed stock stage a fight back?

        Sozo: on 10th Jan 2012

Stocks to Watch

US market fell more than 4% again yesterday. However, seems like Asian market refuses to follow its sell-down like 2-3 days ago. Is it a good sign?

Bursa today opens 13 points down then quickly dives to -26 points after just a few minutes. At noon now, it narrows its loss to around -7 points. Most other Asian markets recover a bit from early morning's dive, with some like Shanghai, NZ and Seoul even in green now.

Viewing as a big picture, the recent sell down may not finish yet, as there is no strong reason or good news to stage a trend reversal. However, short term correction may be on its way.

Listed below are a few non-blue chips stocks that I personally feel worth to consider at this moment, mainly because they are either fundamentally good, recently under the spot light or very much oversold. Of course, there are a few blue chips that look attractive too, and they should be included in your list.

This list of stocks is for reference only, not a buy call. There are still lots of good stocks not listed here. Thus, trade on your own risk.

• UOADev

• UEMLand
• Mahsing
• SPSetia
• E&O

• Coastal
• KFIMA
• Mudajaya

• Gamuda

• BJCorp

• DRBHicom
• Ivory
• Huayang
• Perwaja

    

• Kinsteel
• Tambun
• IJMLand
• UMLand
• Leader
• Airasia

• WCT
• Waseong
• Yinson
• MEGB
• KianJoo

Anyone can share more?

Stock Watch: Random Pick

MBSB at its support of RM1.40, refuses to go further down beyond this level for the 2nd time. RSI oversold. Can it rebound from here?

    MBSB: Can it restart its uptrend, or is it an unfavourable double top here?

Glomac is going to annouce its 2011Q4 result next week, and it is expected to be an impressive one. The company has been actively buying back its share lately and should annouce a final dividend as well.

    Glomac: Uptrend may not finish yet

E&O is one of the most heavily traded property stock recently. News about potential new investors is lingering. Its share price briefly breached through previous high of RM1.61 but fell back immediately to RM1.53. If it is able to crawl back towards RM1.60 next week, then I think it has a chance to go higher.

    E&O: can it form a cup with handle?