Monday 29 September 2014

Lesson From Trying To Save A Few Cents

I wrote quite a lot about BJAuto in this blog even before it was officially listed.

If you look at my portfolio and transaction history, apparently I have never bought any of its shares.

At IPO price of 70sen, BJAuto closed at RM1.82 on its debut day. This is 160% higher than its IPO price. 

The IPO price of merely 70sen gave an "illusion" that its share price was already very high at above RM1.40.

After BJAuto released its magnificent FY14Q2 result 2 weeks later, I set my target price at around RM2. So there was actually still 25% of upside at RM1.60. 

However, I still hope that its share price will drop lower, as the PE ratio used to calculate the target price was 15x.

Personally I am very optimistic about Mazda's future. Though in Malaysia it is still not on par with other established brands like Toyota, Nissan and Honda, I strongly believe that one day it will become as popular as those brands.

Besides, being unpopular now also gives it a huge potential of high growth.

I'm confident because I'm a fan of Mazda. I know how well Mazda will do with its new design and engine. I'm sure that going forward, Mazda in Malaysia and Philippines will only grow at a great pace.

I did not buy BJAuto's shares even though I know that its PE will drop sooner or later due to its high growth potential.

It turned out to be true as BJAuto keeps releasing better and better financial results, along with better market share of Mazda vehicles.

Now BJAuto's is trading at RM3.40. Those who successfully applied for its IPO and resisted the temptation to sell at more than 100% gain in the first day will gain 386% in just 10 months.

For me, I can only rue the somewhat funny decision not to buy BJAuto's shares early.

Actually I did attempt to buy BJAuto's shares, with buy order placed.

I can remember the day clearly as I was working outstation for that whole week. At that time, I only have access to internet before 9am and after 7pm.

BJAuto's share price fell quite significantly from RM2.15 to RM2.04 on 21 May 2014. I predicted that it would drop further and I decided to buy at RM2.00.

Why RM2.00? It's just because I think it is a nice number which is also a psychological support.

So I queued my buy orders at RM2.00 before the market opened on 22/5 and 23/5. They were not matched as the lowest the share price hit was RM2.02. 

On the very next week, I was about to leave for a holiday trip to China. I didn't attempt to buy BJAuto at that time because I would not be able to monitor the market for a week.

I came back from China on the 3rd of June, only to witness BJAuto's share price jumped to RM2.10 on the very next day, and it never looked back from there. As a result, my appetite to buy BJAuto also faded from there.

Why didn't I just put my buy order 2sen higher? Now I can only watch BJAuto's share price going further up to more than RM3.

Anyway, if I did not work outstation or did not go to China at that time, surely I would have already bagged BJAuto's shares at RM2.00.

This proves that I have no "fate" with BJAuto's shares.

At this stage, a few cents of difference is still important for me. I hope that one day this can be changed...

Thursday 25 September 2014

Scientex: Consumer Packaging To Drive Growth

Scientex FY14Q4 Financial Result

Revenue 415.4 426.8 383.5 364.8 371.2
PBT 56.0 48.1 44.4 37.8 40.2
PBT% 13.5 11.3 11.6 10.4 10.9
PATAMI 48.8 37.2 33.9 29.3 30.3

Manu Rev 297.3 317.2 288.5 289.2 277.4
Manu OP 18.8 16.4 15.9 17.7 20.6
Prop Rev 118.1 109.6 95.0 75.6 93.8
Prop OP 36.9 32.5 29.3 22.2 31.4

Total Equity 712.7 686.2 649.9 635.9 628.7
Total Assets 1400.4 1333.2 1304.4 1263.1 1286.4
Trade Receivables 243.5 274.8 251.7 209.7 195.5
Inventories 109.0 82.1 76.3 86.0 80.7
Cash 83.8 56.4 89.3 91.2 152.2
Prop Dev Cost 104.6 71.8 74.4 57.5 68.5

Total Liabilities 665.0 624.9 633.3 606.8 637.7
Trade Payables 272.1 238.9 214.2 229.4 258.4
ST Borrowings 262.9 179.1 205.8 167.9 167.6
LT Borrowings 77.5 156.2 163.7 164.3 167.8

Net Cash Flow -68.4 -95.8 -62.9 -61.0 115.8
Operation 153.5 89.5 30.9 13.5 209.7
Investment -149.2 -106.7 -67.0 -54.1 -345.0
Financing -72.7 -78.6 -26.8 -20.4 251.2

EPS 22.09 16.43 15.34 13.27 13.80
NAS 3.22 3.10 2.94 2.88 2.84
D/E Ratio 0.36 0.41 0.43 0.38 0.29

Again, Scientex breaks its quarterly net profit record by posting a PATAMI of RM48.8mil (Up 31.1% QoQ) in the final quarter of FY14, even though revenue drops slightly by 2.7% QoQ.

Both manufacturing and property divisions perform equally well as shown in the table above.

Balance sheet remain healthy with slight reduction in net debt/equity ratio from 0.41 to 0.36.

Net cash flow for FY14 stays in negative territory due to high capex and generous dividend paid to shareholders amounting to RM57.5mil (FY13). Cash flow from operation remains strong.

Revenue 1590.5 1229.0 881.0 804.0 694.8
Revenue growth % 29.4 39.5 9.6 15.7
PBT 182.3 143.0 107.2 96.6 70.8
PBT% 11.5 11.6 12.2 12.0 10.2
PATAMI 148.5 110.3 83.9 77.2 60.3
PATAMI growth % 34.6 31.4 8.7 28.0

EPS 64.57 51.00 39.00 35.90 28.00
NTA 3.22 2.84 2.44 2.17 1.92
ROE 20.8 17.5 16.0 16.5 14.6
DPS 21.0 26.0 14.0 12.0 9.0

Overall for its full FY2014 ended in 31st July 2014, Scientex achieves revenue and PATAMI growth of 29.4% and 34.6% respectively compared to FY2013. Both revenue of RM1.59bil & PATAMI of 148.5mil are new high for Scientex.

This impressive result is mainly due to increased contribution from its consumer packaging division (acquisition & increased production capacity) & encouraging demand for its property in Johor especially Taman Scientex Senai which has a GDV of RM1.3bil.

Total property sales in FY14 reaches about RM470mil. Unbilled sales stays at RM537mil at the end of FY14. It still has 896 acres of development land with potential GDV of about RM4.3bil.

ROE has breached 20% mark for the first time at 20.8%

With FY14 EPS of 64.6sen (base on total shares of 230mil), my target price for Scientex will be RM7.75 (PE 12x). 

Scientex declares final dividend of 13sen for FY14, making it a total of 21sen or 3% dividend yield at share price of RM7.00. This represents a 32.5% payout from FY14's PATAMI. There is no special dividend this year so dividend this year is lower than previous year's 26sen.

Scientex will certainly need more cash in the near future for expansion in its consumer packaging business. Nevertheless, management promises to keep the dividend payout policy of at least 30%.

       Acquisition of Great Wall Plastic in 2013

Meanwhile, Scientex has entered into a share sale agreement with Japanese packaging film manufacturer Futamura Chemical, in which the latter will subscribe to 5 million new ordinary shares of Scientex Great Wall Sdn Bhd (SGW) at a price of RM40mil. 

This 5 million shares will represent 5% equity interest in SGW with the remaining 95% held by Scientex through its wholly-owned subsidiary Scientex Packaging Film Sdn Bhd.

This means that there will be no enlargement in total paid up shares of Scientex Berhad, thus no dilution of EPS.

However, 5% of earning from SGW will be allocated to Futamura as non-controlling interest.

Futamura has the option to purchase up to another 15% (total 20%) of SGW shares in the next 5 years. It can also sell back the shares to Scientex in 3 years.

SGW is formed as a subsidiary of Scientex's consumer packaging business after the recent acquisition of Great Wall Plastic & Seacera Film. Before this Scientex only involves in industrial packaging.

The equity participation of Futamura will facilitate SGW to build a new world class BOPP film manufacturing plant adhering to stringent Japanese standards and quality in Pulau Indah, Malaysia.

The total investment cost is expected to reach RM170mil which will increase Scientex BOPP film production output by 10 times from 6,000 MT to 60,000 MT per annum.

The new BOPP plant is expected to be completed by the second half of year 2016.

Besides gaining Japanese technology, Scientex will be able to grow its consumer packaging products presence in Japan, while assisting Futamura to develop and market its products in South East Asia region.

This will be a win-win situation for both parties.

       Acquisition of Seacera Film in 2014

Meanwhile, SGW will also extend its product portfolio to the manufacturing of cast polypropylene (CPP) film through an expansion plan costing approximately RM50mil. The production lines with production output of 12,000 MT per annum are expected to start operation by the second half of year 2015.

Scientex will allocate RM240mil capex over the next 2 years for expansion mentioned above. It expects the annual production capacity of its consumer packaging segment to increase to 120,000 MT in 2017, from current level of 30,000 MT.

This means that annual revenue from this segment may grow from current RM295mil to over RM1bil by FY2018! Don't forget that Scientex still has its property & industrial packaging segment.

       Scientex: Publicly listed in 1990

Along its 46 years of history, Scientex has made 3 game-changing moves. First, it diversified into plantation business in 1977 with 1,004 acres land in Pasir Gudang. After that, this plantation land has proven to be a stepping stone for its foray into property development in 1993. Scientex then further enhanced its value by expansion into consumer packaging segment since 2013. 

Judging from the history, there is no reason not to believe that Scientex might emerge as a blue chip stock in the future.

Tuesday 23 September 2014

Protasco: Conspiracy & Secret Money?

As a new shareholder in Protasco for less than a month, it is shocking for me to learn that Protasco has filed a legal suit against two of its directors, as well as PT ASU.

Protasco sues PT ASU in order to claim back its deposits paid earlier and damages arising from the collapsed Oil & Gas deal. This means that Protasco has real difficulty in getting back the deposits paid, which is RM50mil (RM71.9mil according to CIMB).

The two directors Tey Por Yee & Ooi Kock Aun are non-executive directors. They are major shareholders in Protasco as well, at 17.7% and 3.74% respectively (from Annual report 2013).

Both are them are alleged to have committed conspiracy to defraud Protasco & making secret money out of it!

So, there is an apparent disharmony within Protasco's board. The failure to settle this issue internally might indicate its severity.

Other than the attractive dividend yield, I bought Protasco because I am optimistic of its property & construction arms. I predict that it can potentially post a surprise jump in profit in the next 1-2 years.

It is hard for outsiders to guess what has actually happened in this aborted O&G deal. The credibility and capability of its directors are put to serious test for sure.

How will this legal suit affect Protasco?

Will Protasco's fundamentals seriously affected? I don't think so.

Will the construction progress of DeCentrum & PPA1M affected? I don't think so.

Will it affect its property take-up rate? I don't think so.

Will it affect the award of new contracts from government? I don't think so.

Will it affect student enrollment at IUKL? I don't think so.

Will it affect its overall revenue in FY14? I don't think so.

Will it affect its net profit? Yes, there will be an impairment loss if it can't claim back the deposit. However, I'm not sure in which quarter this will be registered. The amount of RM50mil (or RM71.6mil) is huge!

Will it affect its current cash flow & balance sheet? I think it won't, as cash has already been paid earlier, and impairment loss registered later should be a non-cash item. Anyway, it's still a loss of cash amounting to 15sen (or 21sen) per share.

Will it affect the dividends payout? I think more or less it will. Investors might still get good dividend but it can be better if 15sen (or 21sen) per share is not lost.

Will it claim back the deposit eventually? I don't know, but I think it should be able to do so, though it may take a long time.

Are the management of Protasco credible? I don't know, but this should be the most important aspect for long term investors. There are comments that this O&G deal was not transparent from the beginning. Either the carelessness or dishonesty of directors is to be blamed. Anyway this company is generous enough to give high dividend payout.

All these are just my personal opinion which might not be true.

So, should investors sell at all cost or accumulate at this rare opportunity? Well, as usual, you make your decision at your own risk.

Thursday 18 September 2014

Lesson From Speculating In Good Stock

I keep record of my previous share trading transaction since I started trading in stock market in year 2006.

Readers who followed this blog should know that in my "early days", I tried to invest only in "fundamentally strong" companies with my very limited fundamental knowledge.

After a few years, when I have the luxury of working in front of a computer, I witnessed the up & down of share market live on the screen, almost everyday. 

So why not buy low and sell high to earn some money for a good dinner?

Inevitably, I started to speculate in stock market.

Nevertheless, to minimize the risk, I only speculated in those stocks that I think were fundamentally sound.

Recently, I plan to write a bit about my stock market investment journey. So I go through my previous transaction records. Guess what I found?

HUAYANG. Yes, it's that property developer.

From my record, I bought Huayang on 14th Oct 2010 at RM0.985 per share, and amazingly sold all at RM0.990 on 12th Nov 2010. It was a small loss after transaction fees are included.

I almost forgot about this transaction.

I bought it just shortly after Huayang's first bonus issues went ex-ed on 24th Sep 2010.

       Huayang: 2010

Huayang's share price fell soon after its first bonus issue, which should be the reason that caught my attention. Previously I like to speculate on those stocks which dropped a lot (catch a falling knife), as I thought I will have better chance to gain from them.

As you can see from the chart above, 3 months earlier in July 2010, Huayang is still an unknown stock with minimal volume. If I were a long term investor that time, the timing and share price of my entry would be great!

Unfortunately for me, I think I have lost patience in Huayang only after 1 month, as there was no U-turn in share price! I decided to dispose entirely at minimal loss.

What will happen if I hold its shares until today?

       Huayang: 2010-2014

After the first bonus, Huayang has another 3 bonus issues which are:
Oct 2011 - Bonus 1:3
Oct 2012 - Bonus 1:4
Oct 2013 - Bonus 1:3

If I bought 1,000 shares of Huayang at 98.5sen on 14th Oct 2010 and hold until today, I'll have 2,222 shares today. At current share price of RM2.40, it is worth RM5333. 

So from RM985 to RM5333 in 4 years, it is a 440% or 5.4 times gain not including the dividends!

For me, it is a 440% loss...

The lesson is, aim to hold good & growing company forever, until its fundamental has changed or profitability has declined.

Saturday 13 September 2014

Tek Seng: Power Up Toward The Sun

Current hot stock Tek Seng's share price has surged 157% in less than 2 months from 33sen to 85sen.

On 11 Sep 2014, Tek Seng announced that it has entered into an MoU with Taiwan-listed Solartech Energy Corp (SEC), who will invest RM100mil in Tek Seng's 86.1%-owned subsidiary TS Solartech.

       TS Solartech @ Penang Science Park

Tek Seng is primarily a manufacturer of PVC & plastic related products. It officially diversified into the manufacturing of solar photovoltaic cells in 2012 through its initially 60%-owned TS Solartech. Apparently Tekseng has increased its stake later to 86.1%.

I have written about Tek Seng earlier in July 2011 when it announced its decision to diversify into solar PV cells. I had a strong intention to bet on this stock, as I thought solar power will become something common like LED and smartphone. I even went to its new factory construction site at Penang Science Park a few times to see its progress.

Tek Seng's initial plan is to start with one production line in the first quarter of 2012, and gradually increase to 6 lines by 2016. 

According to The Star report in 2011, TS Solartech is expected to generate RM130mil to RM170mil revenue in year 2012.

If it can achieve RM130mil revenue, and if we assume a conservative net margin of 5%, it will be RM4mil net profit for Tek Seng with 60% stake. This will be more than half of its RM7.1mil net profit from its existing business in 2011.

I did not invest in Tek Seng straight away, as I wish to see the actual contribution from its solar division first.

       Tekseng's PVC flooring products

Tek Seng's solar PV cells production started only in June 2012. So for FY2012, it achieved revenue of merely RM0.21mil, which was a far cry from its "expected" revenue of RM130-170mil. It suffered RM7.65mil pre-tax loss as a result.

When TS Solartech contributed fully in FY2013, its revenue increased to RM12.4mil, but pre-tax loss has widened to RM13.9mil.

For the latest first half of FY2014, revenue from solar division jumps significantly to RM20.7mil (cumulative 6 months period), while PBT turns green at RM1.15mil.

However, if it is not because of "other income" of RM6.9mil, its solar division actually still suffers pre-tax loss of RM5.7mil in 1HFY14. I'm not sure what makes up "other income" here.

The good sign is that revenue in solar division has picked up greatly, and the loss has narrowed a bit, though it is still far behind its expected revenue of RM130-170mil.

If TS Solartech achieves greater economies of scale later as it ramps up its production capacity, it can anytime turn the tables in style.

In early March 2013, Tek Seng announced its plan to expand its 60MW plant to 640MW (production capacity) by 2015, with a target of eight production lines by 2016. It is more than 10 times increase in capacity!

It has already spent RM120mil on its plant and will need another RM480mil for expansion. This should be the purpose of SEC's RM100mil investment in the MoU.

Tek Seng is a small company with shareholders equity (net assets) of just RM134.6mil. The investment in its solar division seems to be massive. Even after its share price has more than doubled, its market cap is only at RM200mil.

Anyway, Tek Seng's stake in TS Solartech will drop after the investment by SEC.

       Solartech Energy Corp, Taiwan

Nevertheless, it is hard to predict Tek Seng's financial performance and fair value at the moment. 

It might have increased its production capacity but I'm not sure regarding the demand of solar PV cells and its factory utilization rate. It was earlier reported that there was an oversupply of solar cells mainly from China, which has caused a drop in its selling price.

For those who have taken position in Tek Seng in the past 1-2 years, they are surely handsomely rewarded from their patience right now.

At current share price of 84.5sen, is Tek Seng still undervalued or overvalued? I don't know. Can its bottom line explode next year? I don't know.

As usual, higher risk higher return. I do not have enough patience and I am not willing to wait and take the risk earlier, so I can only punch my chest now.

Thursday 11 September 2014

Head-To-Head: OSKProp vs Huayang

In contrary to some analysts who do not expect a good year for property sector this year, property sector actually does quite well in term of sales and stock price performance.

Since the beginning of this year I have removed those property stocks from my watchlist. Now I know that it is a mistake. The consolation is, property stocks still take up quite a big percentage in my portfolio.

One of the stock I missed dearly is Huayang. 

I think not many investors will deny that Huayang is a great stock to own for long term. I am "craving" for it for quite some time but I don't know why I didn't buy it. 

Perhaps when the stock price keeps on breaking new high, it kind of stops you from buying.

I was very tempted to buy its shares when it dropped to below RM2 early this year. However at that time, I think I have to be disciplined enough not to add more property stocks. Furthermore, its high gearing also further strengthen my decision not to buy.

Now I can only regret my stupid decision.

At the same time, OSKProp started to catch my attention after it released its full FY2013 result. Nevertheless, I'm not sure why I did not have any urge to study it further, perhaps because it is also a property stock.

Now OSKProp has already released its financial result for the first half of 2014, and it is just too hard to ignore it.

Both Huayang and OSKProp are small-mid size property developers that are growing at the moment. This can be seen from their latest financial results.

As OSKProp financial year ends on 31 Dec and Huayang on 31 Mac, for easier comparison I will consider Huayang's FY14 to be 2013 and similarly for earlier financial years.

Throughout the last 5 years, in general both Huayang & OSKProp achieve consistent growth in revenue and PATAMI.

However, Huayang's revenue and PATAMI are higher compared to OSKProp, especially its PATAMI.

The PBT margin of both companies are almost similar. So the relatively lower PATAMI for OSKProp might be due to more profit to minority interest (Sutera Damansara is 51% owned), while all recent Huayang's projects are 100%-owned.

Because of bonus issues in 3 consecutive years in 2011, 2012 & 2013, Huayang's EPS is declining slightly for the last 2 years despite increasing PATAMI. Meanwhile OSKProp's EPS is in a steady climb.

How about the future earnings of both companies? We can look into their recent sales figures as this will give some earning visibility for the near future.

OSKProp locked in more new sales compared to Huayang every year for the past 3 years. So, unbilled sales of OSKProp are higher as well.

In the last 3 years combined, OSKProp has generated total new sales of RM2.03bil compared to Huayang's RM1.65bil.

This means that OSKProp's revenue for year 2014 & 2015 will probably overtake Huayang. I predict that OSKProp's PATAMI may also surpass Huayang in 2014. These can be seen from the latest financial results by both companies.

Nonetheless, Huayang can still prevent this with more aggressive new launches in the second half of 2014.

For ROE, Huayang is excellent at above 20% mark, most probably in 2014 as well. However, do expect OSKProp to break above 20% in 2014.

High gearing is Huayang's main "problem" at the moment, due to aggressive landbanking activity since year 2011, especially the purchase of Puchong's land that cost RM158mil.

OSKProp looks like it can become a net cash company if it does not buy land this year.

Table below shows recent land acquisition of OSKProp & Huayang (might not be accurate)

Date Location Size (acres) Cost (RM mil) Project

Sep 2011 Cyberjaya 16 86.5 Pangaea
Feb 2012 Shah Alam 13.73 45.4 Gravitas
Sep 2012 Bandar Sri Damansara 1.06 12 Opus
May 2013 Shah Alam 2.91 15.2 Emira


May 2011 Kuala Lumpur 1.55 32 Sentrio Suites
Jun 2011 Shah Alam 3.73 13 Metia Residence
Aug 2011 Johor Bahru 2.1 10.7 Citywoods
Apr 2012 Hulu Kinta 21 15.2
Oct 2012 Puchong 29.2 158
Jun 2013 Seri Kembangan 3.73 56.9
Aug 2014 Hulu Kinta 7.2 25.1

For the past 3 years, Huayang spends almost 2 times more than OSKProp for land acquisition. OSKProp needs more cash to construct its Atria shopping mall I guess.

In term of dividend, generally Huayang pays more dividend per share due to its superior earning.

However, OSKProp also pays good dividend historically if we look at its dividend payout ratio from net profit. Both OSKProp and Huayang are quite even in dividend payout for the past 3 years at around 40%.

At current share price, Huayang has a decent dividend yield of 5.0% (RM2.42), while OSKProp's dividend yield is at 3.1% (RM2.78).

       Metia Residence (Huayang)

As mentioned earlier, base on last 3 years' sales figures, OSKProp might overtake Huayang in term of revenue and profit. However, this will also depend on their respective sales this year and in the future.

Who has a brighter future?

As Huayang has acquired more new lands, it is not a surprise that it plans to launch lots of projects (up to RM1.09bil) for its FY15 which ends in Mac 2015. So far this year it still hasn't officially launch any projects.

The table below shows recent and future new projects launch of OSKProp & Huayang. (might not be accurate)

Year OSKP Huayang
Project GDV Project GDV
2011 Mirage By The Lake 466 Parc (OneSouth) 154

Mirage Residence 175 Gardenz (OneSouth) 160

Atria SOFO 200

2012 Vale (Sutera)
Flexis (OneSouth) 183

Paragon (Pangaea)
Pulai Hijauan

Solstice (Pangaea) 340

2013 Eclipse (Pangaea) 398 Greenz (OneSouth) 194

Almira28 (Sutera)
Metia Residence 156

Vale II (Sutera)
Sentrio Suites 213

2014 Roseville (BPJ)

Gravitas 150

TBA Emira 250 Citywoods 248

Opus 75 The Gardens 64

Kepler (Pangaea) 338 Cube (OneSouth) 185

New phase P/Hijauan 127

First phase Puchong 300

Ridgewood 90

Greenview Residence 12
TBA = To Be Annouced
BPJ = Bandar Puteri Jaya

It is clear that Huayang depends a lot on its successful One South project in Seri Kembangan, while the near future earning of OSKProp will be hugely supported by its high-GDV Pangaea in Cyberjaya. Both projects will probably enter their last phase this year.

After this, Huayang has Puchong West (GDV RM1.35bil) as One South's successor. However, it seems like OSKProp doesn't have a successor yet for its Pangaea.

       Pangaea (OSKP)

OSKProp has small pieces of prime land in Bandar Sri Damansara (Opus) & Shah Alam (Emira), while Huayang matches it with land at Seri Kembangan (Mines South) & Johor Bahru (Citywoods).

Both companies have huge township development. OSKProp has Bandar Puteri Jaya in Sg Petani, with remaining landbank at approximately 1,200 acres. Huayang has ongoing township at Bandar University Seri Iskandar in Perak (about 400 acres remaining) and Taman Pulai Hijauan in Johor (about 92 acres remaining).

Coincidentally, both companies also have lands in Seremban, where OSKProp has 15 acres while Huayang has 35 acres, both freehold.

Besides, Huayang has an ongoing commercial project Senawang Link in Seremban which has 20 acres remaining, as well as more small land parcels in Ipoh for both commercial & residential development. (from latest annual report).

       Cube @ One South (Huayang)

Nevertheless, OSKProp recently sold 108 acres of land in its BPJ for RM56mil to PR1MA, and will be given the responsibility to construct 1,395 units affordable houses on it.

Protasco gets similar project worth RM88.1mil earlier this year to construct 1,144 units of PR1MA houses. So I think OSKProp's PR1MA project might worth about RM110mil.

OSKProp expects its Atria Mall (470,000 NLA) at Damansara Jaya to be ready by the end of this year. So it should contribute as a recurring rental income to OSKProp from year 2015, which can more or less "protect" the company from property market slowdown.

Furthermore, OSKProp plans to build the largest shopping mall in Sg Petani in its BPJ which might mean more recurring income in the future.

Belleview Group (not listed) also said that it will build the largest shopping mall in Sg Petani. Who will be larger then?

       Atria SOFO & Shopping Complex (OSKP)

Meanwhile for Huayang, its landbanking activity might be limited due to high gearing, even though it has recently taken up a RM250mil Sukuk program. It has to pray that its property projects sell well to generate enough cash to pay the debts.

Anyway, Huayang does not seem to stop here as the management eyes further land acquisition in mainland Penang and Kota Kinabalu.

Development lands are crucial to a property company so I think Huayang's move is good for its shareholders. 

       Sentrio Suites (Huayang)

Both companies seem to be undervalued at the moment base on fair PE ratio of 10x.

OSKProp Huayang
Current Share Price (RM) 2.78 2.42
Projected PATAMI (mil) 100 100
Projected EPS (sen) 41 38
Actual PE 12.2 7.8
Projected PE 6.8 6.4
Diluted Projected PE 9.6 6.4

OSKProp's current actual PE (base on latest full FY result) may be higher but it will drop for sure if its 1HFY14 PATAMI is to be annualized. 

The projected PE is base on projected PATAMI of RM100mil for both companies in their next full FY (similar with Tambun!). 

At the moment OSKProp and Huayang have paid-up shares of 244mil & 264mil units respectively. OSKProp has 105mil outstanding warrants expires in Aug/2017. 

       Mirage By The Lake (OSKP)

In term of management team, Huayang has a good one for sure, who has grown the company tremendously besides giving good dividends and bonus issues without diluting shareholder's shares value.

As for OSKProp, I'm not too sure but it can't be too bad as it has successfully raised the company's earning and value to a higher level.

Anyway there is a possibility that OSKProp might be injected into OSK Holdings by its major shareholders. I think this might be a double-edge sword to OSKProp's minor shareholders. If OSKProp is valued cheaply, then it's not good.

In May 2011, OSKProp was attempted to be taken over by major shareholder Ong Leong Huat at 87sen per share. Its share price was traded around 75sen at that time and surged to 79.5sen a day before the announcement.

OSKProp's FY2010's EPS stood at 6.3sen, so 87sen offer price represented a PE ratio of 13.8x. However, its net asset per share at that time was RM1.74. 

As a result, the takeover offer didn't go through.

In 2013, Ong also attempted to take over both OSK & OSKVI with offer price significantly lower than their net asset per share. So both have failed as well.

OSKProp's latest net asset per share stands at RM1.87, which is below its share price of RM2.78 at the moment. However, it still has Atria mall & is yet to revalue its land. What should be OSKProp's fair price? 

Anyway, OSKProp might not be injected into OSK in the first place.

Is it still safe to invest in property sector now? If it is, OSKProp & Huayang, which one is more attractive? Why not both?