Monday, 7 December 2015

Huayang Joins The Bustling Jalan Baru

Huayang really surprised me by announcing another land acquisition in Penang mainland.

It will acquire all the shares of G Land Development for RM16.6mil, who will acquire 6 parcels of freehold land in Prai, Penang mainland for RM25mil.

So the total cost will be RM41.6mil, or about RM110 psf.

The land has an area of 8.59 acres (net 6.98 acres), is 3km from Penang bridge and is accessible through federal road (Jalan Baru).

Remember that in my last post about Huayang, I wrote that I saw Huayang's new sales office at The Frontage fronting Jalan Baru?

At that time I was a bit puzzled why Huayang sell its property in Bukit Mertajam but set up its sales office in Prai, though both location are actually not far away.

Now I know the reason.


          Huayang's new sales office at The Frontage, Jalan Baru


When talking about Bukit Mertajam, the hot area is Jalan Song Ban Kheng.

When talking about Prai area, the hot area now is undoubtedly Jalan Baru.

Jalan Baru is bustling right now, with new condos such as Pinang Laguna, Palma Laguna and The Signature completed.

Condos nearby include Prominence, BM City Mall, Kelisa Residence, K Residence & Primero Heights.

Besides, there are also other upcoming condos by Aroma & Wern Properties along Jalan Baru.

Mydin Hypermarket which was opposite of Huayang's new sales office, was just opened last month.

A new KFC drive-thru restaurant was also being set up recently.

Belleview Group, a famous private developer in Penang, planned a "bigger than Mid-Valley" shopping mall and office tower on the other side of the road.

This land that Huayang proposed to acquire is previously owned by GSD Land who has already planned a development called "The Presidence" here since 2012.

The Presidence comprises a 44-storey 480-unit services apartment and 15 units shop offices.

According to the announcement, Huayang's initial plan is to develop 480 units of service apartment, 148 units of condominiums and 16 units of double storey shops with estimated GDV of RM311mil.

Will there be any oversupply situation in Jalan Baru? May be there is, to be frank, but I think property here will have good demand because of its superb location.

While that stretch of Jalan Baru is a booming area, the land that Huayang acquires is not perfect as it is located next to high voltage powerlines.



          Huayang's land at Jalan Baru, Prai


So, there might be a concern whether Huayang's project here will sell well or not.

Definitely some buyers/investors will not consider this project just because of the powerlines.

However, this issue may not concern some other buyers/investors as long as the location, concept and price are good.

Tambun Indah's completed apartment Kelisa Residence launched in 2011 is also located right next to this high voltage powerlines but it is completely sold out.

In Klang Valley, there are quite a lot of projects developed next to the powerlines but it seems like it doesn't matter too much.

Anyway, we can only wait and see whether Huayang has made a correct or wrong decision.

Current subsale market asking price for adjacent Pinang Laguna is about RM300-350psf, while newer Palma Laguna is about RM350-400psf.

Huayang might price its project here at RM350-400psf I guess.


       Part of Huayang's land seen from Pinang/Palma Laguna


How many pieces of lands that Huayang has in Penang now?

It's a bit confusing to me.

Initially in Jan15, Huayang first invaded Penang by acquiring 2 parcels of land in Bukit Mertajam (4.9 acres + 3.14 acres), though it seemed to announce only one of them (4.9 acres).

Then penangpropertytalk website in Sep15 revealed an upcoming development by Huayang in Bukit Minyak, which is within Bukit Mertajam.

This is confirmed as Huayang's subsidiary Tinggian Development has submitted planning permission to develop 90 units strata-titled landed houses and one block medium cost 41-storey apartment with 268 units in Aug15, and it has actually been approved in Oct15.

Initially I thought this Bukit Minyak land is the 3.14 acres land that Huayang acquired in Jan15, even though it seems too small to accommodate such development.

In Nov15, it was reported that Huayang has aborted one of the earlier land deals in Bukit Mertajam, which is the land with size 3.14 acres.

Is this aborted deal referring to Bukit Minyak land? I'm not sure but I don't think it is. The planning permission was actually approved by the authorities.

One day after Huayang submitted its application of planning permission for Bukit Minyak land through Tinggian Development, a company known as G Land Development also submitted its building plan for its phase 1 project at Jalan Baru which comprises a 44-storey 480-unit serviced apartment.

This building plan has been approved since early Oct15.

Now we know that G Land will be acquired by Huayang. So Huayang might start to sell this project as soon as when the land deal is completed in the first quarter of calendar year 2016.

It should contribute to its sales in FY17 starting from 1st Apr 2016.

As a shareholder of Huayang and a Penangite, I view this acquisition positively and hope that the deal will not be terminated like the previous two.

Friday, 4 December 2015

Heng Huat: No "Heng" This Time

Heng Huat FY15Q3 Financial Result

HHG (RM mil) FY15Q3 FY15Q2 FY15Q1 FY14Q4 FY14Q3
Revenue 18.0 26.6 26.5 23.2 23.1
Gross Profit 6.8 12.9 10.6 8.8 10.4
Gross% 37.7 48.5 40.0 37.9 45.0
PBT 3.0 6.2 3.5 3.5 2.3
PBT% 16.7 23.3 13.2 15.1 9.9
PATAMI 2.5 5.0 2.9 3.4 1.2






Biomass Rev 13.7 21.8 19.9 18.1 18.6
Mattress Rev 5.1 6.6 12.6 9.8 9.1
Biomass OP 3.9 6.4 3.6 3.6 4.3
Mattress OP -0.37 0.04 0.3 -0.1 -0.1






Total Equity 77.4 75.1 70.0 68.3 64.8
Total Assets 122.4 117.4 114.3 109.8 110.5
Trade Receivables 31.5 30.1 26.7 22.3 19.7
Inventories 7.4 5.8 4.8 5.9 6.3
Cash 5.0 13.7 14.1 15.2 18.8






Total Liabilities 39.3 37.1 39.9 36.8 42.2
Trade Payables 11.4 11.8 13.1 11.2 9.2
ST Borrowings 15.9 13.9 11.4 9.6 12.1
LT Borrowings 10.7 10.5 14.3 15.3 19.0






Net Cash Flow -10.2 -1.6 -1.2 13.0 16.6
Operation 9.2 7.3 4.9 13.5 8.7
Depreciation 5.4 3.5 1.6 5.9 4.3
Investment -14.9 -4.3 -4.3 -7.7 -7.5
Purchase PPE 15.3 4.5 4.5 7.1 7.1
Financing -4.6 -4.6 -1.7 7.3 15.5






Dividend paid 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0






EPS 0.81 2.45 1.42 1.67 0.64
NAS 0.25 0.36 0.34 0.38 0.38
D/E Ratio 0.28 0.14 0.17 0.14 0.19


Heng Huat's latest FY15Q3 was an extremely disappointing one to me.

Revenue dropped rather unexpectedly at 32.3% compared to immediate preceding quarter of FY15Q2, while PATAMI dropped 50% to RM2.5mil.

If not because of RM2.26mil forex gain in this quarter, the result could be even worse.

The management claimed that this was due to lower sales of EFB fibre to China market, due to economic uncertainties in China, and the company lower sales to customers with higher credit risk.

It is good that the company took initiative to lower its credit risk, but this may mean losing more customers or sales.

The poor Q3 result coincided with super bear market in China in which Shanghai Stock Exchange index slumped more than 40% from over 5,000 pts in mid Jun15 to 3,000 pts in Sep15.




With such terrifying sentiment, customers in China might anticipate lower demand and hold back their orders, or they may face some financial difficulty and so delay their payment to Heng Huat.

I'm not sure how long this situation will persist.

If China's stock market performance is to be a guide, then there is a gradual recovery in the 4th quarter of 2015 as Shanghai index has crawled back to 3,500 pts.

Besides, Heng Huat has to lower its average selling price for EFB fibre in this quarter to improve its competitiveness. 

This comes to a bit of surprise to me as I thought Heng Huat is an indisputable leader in EFB fibre.

Gross profit margin has dropped from a remarkable 48.5% a quarter ago to just 37.7%.




Despite all those negatives, I think Heng Huat is still a good company and its operating cash flow remain good.

Its debt increases because RM15.3mil has been spent so far in the purchase of PPE, which should be used for the land purchase and construction of new factory in Gua Musang. 

No matter what, Heng Huat's expansion plan is still on-going, and it will continue to explore new markets.

It will also face no problem to be transferred to main board very soon.

Even though Shanghai stock index dropped a lot recently, it is still at a high level compared to around 2,000 pts in the first half of year 2014.

Will Heng Huat's orders or revenue get straight back to normal around RM25mil in FY15Q4?

I'm actually not too optimistic of that.

However, I think sooner or later it will get back to that level, unless China suddenly goes into a recession. 

If this happens, then not only Heng Huat, every stocks will tumble.

Wednesday, 2 December 2015

Genetec: Automation Specialist In HDD

For the period of Jul15 to Sep15, a lot of companies which earn USD produced remarkable financial results. Genetec is one of them.

Genetec's financial year ends on 31 Mac each year.

In the first half of FY16 (Apr15-Sep15), Genetec's financial results look like this:

Genetec (RM mil) 1H16 1H15 Change
Revenue 92.6 58.1 59%
PBT 9.68 1.27 662%
PATAMI 7.66 1.00 666%
EPS 2.18 0.28 678%


Its revenue increased 60% and earning rose by a whopping 660% YoY!

If we annualize 1H16 EPS of 2.18, FY16's EPS can potentially be 4.36sen and now its share price is trading at 29sen though it was only at around 20sen 2 weeks ago.

Is it undervalued?




Genetec is a company involved in industrial automation which provides automation and manufacturing solution for its customers.

It specializes in automation for HDD (hard disc drive) industry in which 84% of its revenue in FY15 were derived from HDD industry.

Other industries that Genetec serves include automotive (9%), pharmaceutical and semiconductor.

Genetec was listed in Mesdaq (now ACE market) in year 2005 and now it's still lingering in ACE.

To know more about this technology company, I think we should study its recent history.

The bar chart below shows Genetec's historical revenue, PATAMI & contract value.




By looking at the orange bars in the chart above, we can see that Genetec's revenue doubled from RM52.5mil in FY10 to RM123mil in FY11. Its PATAMI tripled from RM4.4mil to RM12.4mil in this period of time.

What has happened?

At that time, Genetec took an ambitious step forward with a series of acquisition.

First, it acquired 51% stake in CLT Engineering Sdn Bhd and merged it into the group in Aug10.

Then, it acquired 80% of US-based Systems South Inc in Dec10 and 60% of another US-based company IP Systems Inc in Feb11.

It also acquired new factories at Subang Jaya (75,000 sq ft) and Bangkok (6,100 sq ft) at that time.

Its chairman was also changed to an American.

As a result, new contracts surged to RM212mil (blue bars in chart above) which was a record high in FY12 compared to usual RM50mil a year previously.

It looked like Genetec has taken a giant step towards its vision which is to become the most competitive and world leader in industrial automation.

However, it finally turned out that this was not the case.




After a stellar performance in FY12, Genetec's bottom line suffered after that, despite consistent revenue and contract wins.

This was mainly caused by lower HDD demand, slower US growth and Thai flood.

Its US-based subsidiaries suffered loss and Genetec eventually decided to cease its US operation in 2013, about 3 years after acquiring them.

This has resulted in massive loss in its FY13 which mainly consisted of write-off in goodwill and compensation paid.

After exiting US, as expected, FY14 saw a drop in revenue and new contracts secured, and it actually suffered small operation loss.

However, FY15 seems to be a turnaround year for Genetec as it successfully secured RM171mil worth of new contracts, which was the second highest since the year it ventured into US, thanks to recovery in HDD demand.

Revenue in FY15 also reached historical high at RM145.9mil.

Nevertheless, profit margin was still a problem as it only manage to post a PBT of RM3.7mil in FY15.

As already mentioned above, revenue and PATAMI improves tremendously as Genetec stepped into FY16.

In the first half of FY16, Genetec's revenue increased 60% and earning rose 660% compared to first half of FY15.

However, there are some one-off items which should be watched out.



Its "other operating income" has increased significantly from RM1.7mil in 1HFY15 to RM9.6mil in 1HFY16.

This might be mostly due to forex gain I guess.

Besides, there was also a derivative loss of RM5.9mil in 1HFY16 due to unfavourable forex hedging.

If we simply add in RM5.9mil and deduct RM7.9mil to its PBT, then we can get a 1HFY16 PBT of RM7.7mil.

So, PATAMI will be roughly RM6mil for 1HFY16 (EPS 1.7sen base on 351.7mil shares).




I think this "adjusted EPS" of 1.7sen so far in 1HFY16 are really not bad, probably due to higher new contracts secured in FY15, especially towards the end of FY15 which ended on 31 Mac 2015.

Genetec will announce in Bursa website whenever it gets a new contract. It mentions that the tenure of those contracts normally range from 3 to 9 months depending on the size of order and scope of work.

So, I would consider that high amount of contracts secured from Sep14 to Mac15 (RM142mil) have contributed significantly to its top and bottom lines of 1HFY16.


Genetec Recent Contracts
Date Contract value (RM mil)
7-Oct-15 26.1
Jun 23, 15 27.3
Mar 10, 15 40.6
Nov 25, 14 27.7
Nov 3, 14 32.0
Sep 29, 14 41.9
30-May-14 28.7


Can it maintain this contract-winning performance in the second half of FY16?

After almost 3 quarters into FY16, it has secured RM53.4mil new contracts, which looks a bit off the pace.

For me, I think that if it can announce another big contract before year 2015 ends, or gets more than RM100mil worth of new contracts in FY16, then its short to mid term prospect will look good.

If not, it will not be good.

As Genetec depends quite heavily on HDD industry, it will closely follow the trend of HDD demand.

Higher HDD demand means that HDD manufacturers will be more willing to spend to improve their production efficiency such as automation.

The management seems trying to "diversify" more towards automotive and pharmaceutical industries but so far there is limited success.




Genetec's recent operating cash flow is good. It manage to repay most of its short term bank borrowing in FY16.

This has lowered its net gearing significantly to 0.12x from 0.47x just 6 months ago.

It seems to be on the right track.

I think its recent good earnings, balance sheet and cash flow are mainly due to high value contracts won since end of FY15.

The same old question is, can it secure more contracts in the remaining of FY16?

Tuesday, 1 December 2015

My Portfolio Nov15

Summary for November 2015
Nov-15
Numbers of stocks 13
Cash:Share ratio 9%
Share Bought Geshen@ 1.73 (add)

Notion @ 0.40
Share Sold Jadi @ 9.5 (all)
Overall 2015
Portfolio Return Nov15 17.3%
KLCI Return Nov15 0.38%
Portfolio Return YTD15 89.3%
KLCI Return YTD15 -5.10%
* return is inclusive of dividends


Stock Portfolio @ End of Nov15

Satellite Portfolio
Stocks Avg Oct15 Nov15 Div 15 Nov15(%) Overall(%)
BJAUTO 1.92 2.10 2.19 2.25 4.3 14.1
GESHEN 0.77 1.19 1.89
58.8 145.5
GTRONIC 2.43 6.22 6.38 23.0 2.6 162.5
HEVEA 0.775 1.37 1.47 1.625 7.3 89.7
HHGROUP 0.327 0.555 0.735 0.75 32.4 124.8
HUAYANG 2.32 1.86 1.93 13.0 3.8 -16.8
INARI 0.82 3.57 4.22 9.5 19.0 414.6
INARI-WB n/a 1.61 2.00
24.2 n/a
JOHOTIN 1.54 2.19 2.15 3.5 -1.8 39.6
LATITUD 2.09 6.69 7.43
11.1 255.5
MATRIX 1.77 2.42 2.45 14.25 1.2 38.4
MATRIX-WA n/a 0.415 0.415
0.0 n/a
NOTION 0.40 n/a 0.39
n/a -2.5
SCIENTEX 5.47 7.66 8.27 22 8.0 51.2
TAMBUN 0.77 1.41 1.38 9.7 -2.1 79.2


Comment:
  • Dividend ex-ed for Inari (2.8sen) and Hevea (0.5sen) in Nov15
  • It was a bullish month for me until the last few days of Nov15
  • I am extremely delighted with portfolio YTD return of 89%, despite a recent slump in Johotin & HHGroup's share price.
  • Three stocks in my portfolio get UMA query in Nov15, I think this won't happen again in my life.
  • HHGroup became the 6th stock that exceed 100% paper gain.
  • Add more Geshen's shares after its financial result announcement.
  • Sold all Jadi shares after its financial result announcement.
  • Add Notion to portfolio, another opportunistic investment.
  • Total stocks remain at 13

Plan:

  • Still plan to add more shares of BJAuto, Hevea & Scientex
  • May want to add more stocks when there is significant market correction
  • To watch plantation and O&G stocks