| Aug-15 | |
| Numbers of stocks | 12 |
| Cash:Share ratio | 1:10 |
| Share Bought | Jadi @ 6.0, 5.5, 5.0 |
| Share Sold | Latitud @ 7.38 (part) |
| Overall 2015 | |
| Portfolio Return Jul15 | -8.0% |
| KLCI Return Jul15 | -6.41% |
| Portfolio Return YTD15 | 41.0% |
| KLCI Return YTD15 | -8.40% |
Stock Portfolio @ End of Aug15
Core Portfolio
None
Satellite Portfolio
| Stocks | Avg | Jul15 | Aug15 | Div 15 | Aug15(%) | Overall(%) |
| GESHEN | 0.575 | 1.01 | 0.815 | -19.3 | 41.8 | |
| GTRONIC | 2.43 | 6.13 | 5.75 | 0.13 | -6.2 | 136.6 |
| HEVEA | *0.775 | 1.08 | 0.94 | 0.00625 | -13.0 | 21.3 |
| HHGROUP | *0.327 | 0.490 | 0.385 | 0.0033 | -21.4 | 17.7 |
| HUAYANG | 2.32 | 1.90 | 1.81 | 0.05 | -4.7 | -22.0 |
| INARI | 0.82 | 3.44 | 3.10 | 0.044 | -9.9 | 278.0 |
| INARI-WB | n/a | 1.44 | 1.16 | -19.4 | n/a | |
| JADI | 0.056 | n/a | 0.055 | n/a | -1.8 | |
| JOHOTIN | 1.54 | 1.51 | 1.47 | 0.035 | -2.6 | -4.5 |
| LATITUD | 2.09 | 7.17 | 7.38 | 2.9 | 253.1 | |
| MATRIX | *1.77 | 2.54 | 2.31 | 0.1075 | -9.1 | 10.5 |
| MATRIX-WA | n/a | 0.585 | 0.395 | -32.5 | n/a | |
| SCIENTEX | 5.47 | 7.10 | 6.90 | 0.22 | -2.8 | 26.1 |
| TAMBUN | 0.77 | 1.65 | 1.38 | 0.03 | -16.4 | 76.2 |
Comment:
- All stocks suffer loss in Aug15 except Latitude Tree
- HHGroup & Geshen are most heavily affected
- No dividend ex-ed in Aug15
- Add Jadi - an "opportunistic" investment
- Missed the chance to add more Hevea shares
- Sold some Latitude shares to get cash in last trading day of Aug15
Plan:
- Probably may add in more new stocks into portfolio if price continue to fall
- To have maximum 15 stocks in portfolio, no more upward revision
- Need to find more cash
Hi BD, may I know your thoughts on Tambun? Do you see any potential in the Seberang Perai/Batu Kawan prospect (in 2-3 years)
ReplyDeleteHi Ben, I think Batu Kawan & South Seb Perai have great potential, but Batu Kawan will take time, as developers there delay their launch in this weak market.
DeleteAs for Tambun, I have written a lot on it and you can refer to old posts. Basically I think its Pearl City will do well. However, the days of launching many projects like condos in Penang island & Butterworth are over. It just concentrates on Pearl City now. Growth is still possible as property price has increased albeit in a slower pace now, but I do not expect too much growth from Tambun.
Hi BD, you mentioned to add more stocks if price continues to fall, may I ask which stocks you are eyeing ? I am also looking for opportunity to add new stocks into my portfolio currently :)
ReplyDeleteSome of the stocks I am looking at are Pantech and Mmode.
Why Pantech ? It's bcos the price has fallen to attractive level, potential orders from RAPID project, market leader with 40% market share, stable, high dividend.
Why Mmode ? Again, attractive price, and I noticed it's cost of sales & expenses (which are the culprit of lower profit in past quarters) have reduced in recent quarter, so it may be a fresh start if can sustain.
Feel free to give inputs (if u have any) for the above 2 stocks ya :)
Thanks for your input. Pantech & Mmode are both in my watchlist. Both are at very attractive price at the moment. I can't get too much info regarding Mmode and I'm not too convinced about its growth though it's in the right industry. For Pantech, probably I will buy its shares again at some point of time, just trying to get the timing right.
DeleteI don't study a lot of new stocks. O&G-related and plantation stocks coastal, favco, pantech, bumitama, first res have dropped a lot but it seems like bad time is not over yet. I'm aiming at BJAuto haha!
Hi BD,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about SAM Engineering ?
Thanks
Super company with great potential, though I still haven't study it in detail. The only thing I don't quite like is its relatively huge ICULS...
DeleteHi BD,
DeleteMe too. Thanks
Hi BD,
DeleteWhat do you think about Magni-Tech ?
Thanks in advance for your reply.
Regards
Brian
I think Magni is one of the stocks not to be missed if it falls in the bear market. Even at current price it's cheap. Great growth, decent dividend, good cashflow, plenty of cash etc. Just wonder when will its sales & profit start fall...
Deletehi BD,
DeleteI still feel Magni got future due to during this weak RM period. Because 83% of the business is in garment which is in USD. Also, the last 2 quarters results are double compared to last year. Nike is their customer and since US economy is still strong. Hence i will buy some. Thanks for you advice.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/undervalue/79279.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/the_edge_insider_asia_stock/81431.jsp
I'm wondering what is its capacity utilization at the moment. It's not bad at all to buy Magni.
DeleteHi BD,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your annual compound growth rate of your portfolio ?
Thanks
As cash is always in & out, I can't have an accurate figure for CAGR.
DeleteoO, u bought Jadi, i must follow u and adding u some stress.
ReplyDeleteBased on ur track record, it is very easy for u to apply margin financing, annual rate max 5% only ma
I'm still not ready for margin yet, kiasi la...
DeleteHmm...this Jadi looks risky, but high risk high return. London Bridge is falling down, falling down...careful in this falling market
ReplyDeleteRisky indeed
DeleteOne more counter I am eyeing is Gadang, mainly due to it's Capital City project. The management claimed the profit from Capital City alone would be RM220 million or 40 million per year over time span of 5.5 years (from Q3 FY15 to FY2020). We already can see the profit surged in past 2 quarters (Q3 & Q4 FY15) since the kick-in of Capital City income, and should be able to sustain for ~5 more years.
ReplyDeleteProfit going up, share price keep coming down.
-ve fact : construction segment doesn't secure new order after RAPID 2 project, which would also complete on 30 Sept'15. Construction work orders reduced to RM1 billion. In addition, Gadang is partially a property stock which short/mid term prospect doesn't look good.
Pls share your input if there is any ya :)
I think I need to study Gadang in more detail. Generally I'm not too keen to invest in construction sector but at this share price level, it might be a steal.
DeleteDo u know whether Gadang will get fixed income base on the GDV of Capital CIty, or it depends on the project's sales?
Its latest contract award RM350mil will be completed soon like u mention. I wonder how much outstanding contract value remaining by end of this month... <500mil??
I guess its FY16 should be better for Gadang. For me, the theme for investing in Gadang is about how well it's going to reinvest the huge profit from Capital City. Expand its property landbank or plantation or more concession contract, or diversify some more?
Anyway, I think u can start a blog to share your investment ideas :)
The Capital City project is a joint-venture, Gadang only came out land and it's partner does the development. The management didn't state clearly if Gadang's income depends on project's sales, but just mentioned :"The developer shall pay to landowner a total value equilvalent to 16.7% of the final GDV of the project".
DeleteIn its recent quarterly report, the management claimed they expect the financial performance for FY16 would be better than FY15.
By the way, can I know why you generally do not like construction company ? Is it bcos their business margin is too thin, and it depends on work order replenishment from time to time ?
DeleteI think for Capital 21, Gadang can get RM200mil net profit spread over 3-4 years, so it's about RM50-60mil net profit a year. For SOHO & hotel I don't think they will be launched in the near future. Definitely Gadang will do very well in the next 2 years. If it can secure big construction contracts along the way then it's a bonus but it only expects to add RM100mil in 2015...
DeleteConstruction companies usually post inconsistent quarterly results which is harder to predict. Yes, they tend to have thin margin due to competitive bidding process, and may swing to loss easily with bad cost control or during bad market.
New info : management said gadang's FY2016 net profit target is 15% increase. As at 30/06, construction job in hand stand at 700m.
DeleteMay I know where did u get the info?
DeleteI got the info from one of the forumer in i3investor, but the info have not verified. He mentioned the management disclosed that info in Busy Weekly issue #340. I tried to search for the online Busy Weekly, but it needs subscription..I know Busy Weekly is a magazine that can be bought in book store, I may try to verify the info if I can find issue #340.
DeleteAnyway, I would think the info are quite dependable. In quarterly report, we confirmed that the work order was RM1b as at Feb'15, so the figure down to RM7m by end Jun'15 is reasonable. In Q4'15 quarterly report, the management expected FY16 should have better profit compared to FY15, and 15% increase also sound reasonable.
Anyway, better to verify the management's statements in Busy Weekly issue#340.
Thanks for the info. I'm a subscriber of Busy Weekly electronic version but I'm not aware of this, too bad isn't it? Sometimes I didn't download the whole issue, sometimes I downloaded but never finish reading it...
DeleteI think you need some donation :)
ReplyDeleteYea I want. Donation is for everybody, rich or poor :)
DeleteFor Jadi, i think it is really another London Biscuit, keep putting money into investing, but never see the reward one, the cffo should be keep increasing or at least maintain, but what we see now is cffo keeps reducing.
ReplyDeleteNow what Jadi has got is a bunch of machines which cannot generate cash. Wasted gas counter
BD already mentioned it is a risky counter but the reward could be huge if proven right. If you look at Hevea a few years back, the financial statements also didn't look good.
DeleteJadi may or may not turn out to be successful, but surely it won't be another London Biscuit. The attitude and way of working of their management are clearly differ.
Haha, Mr Tham is just a straight person. It's OK. Sometimes people can make silly decision :)
DeleteIt's true that Jadi's cash flow is poor. I actually regretted putting money in Jadi. I bought it first before panic sell in Aug. If not, I should have bought more Hevea shares during that time with that money... sigh