Thursday, 1 October 2015

My Portfolio Sep15

Summary for September 2015

Sep-15
Numbers of stocks 12
Cash:Share ratio 1:12
Share Bought None
Share Sold None


Overall 2015
Portfolio Return Jul15 4.1%
KLCI Return Jul15 0.5%
Portfolio Return YTD15 47.0%
KLCI Return YTD15 -8.0%


Stock Portfolio @ End of Sep15


Satellite Portfolio

Stocks Avg Aug15 Sep15 Div 15 Sep15(%) Overall(%)
GESHEN 0.575 0.815 0.895
9.8 55.7
GTRONIC 2.43 5.75 6.25 13.0 8.7 157.2
HEVEA 0.775 0.94 1.19 1.125 27.1 53.5
HHGROUP 0.327 0.385 0.445 0.33 15.6 36.1
HUAYANG 2.32 1.81 1.81 13.0 4.4 -22.0
INARI 0.82 3.10 3.39 6.7 10.1 313.4
INARI-WB n/a 1.16 1.35
16.4 n/a
JADI 0.056 0.055 0.055
0.0 -1.8
JOHOTIN 1.54 1.47 1.55 3.5 5.4 0.6
LATITUD 2.09 7.38 6.95
-5.8 232.5
MATRIX 1.77 2.31 2.29 14.25 0.6 29.4
MATRIX-WA n/a 0.395 0.435
10.1 n/a
SCIENTEX 5.47 6.90 7.11 22.0 3.0 30.0
TAMBUN 0.77 1.38 1.30 9.7 -1.0 68.8


Comment:
  • No transaction in Sep15
  • Dividend ex-ed for Hevea (0.5sen), Huayang (8sen), Inari (2.3sen), Matrix (3.5sen) & Tambun (6.7sen) in Sep15
  • Sep15 return of 4.1% manage to beat KLCI's 0.5% return
  • Latitude Tree which is the only stock to escape Aug15 collapse, suffer heaviest loss among the stocks in portfolio in Sep15.
  • Has quite a lot of potential stocks to add into the portfolio such as BJAuto, Superlon, KESM, Gadang, First Resource etc but end up with nothing

Plan:
  • I think I should not try to time the market...

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30 comments:

  1. Valuegrowth881 October 2015 at 21:01

    From your potential stock list above, I suppose BJAuto stock price is still not moving up yet. If I am not mistaken, the lowest this year is RM1.89, today's closing is at RM1.91. So, it is not too late to avoid "end up with nothing", right ?
    Probably you are waiting for it to reach your target buying price :)
    I like BJAuto too after studying it in more detail, but strengthening of Yen is a real concern. But if think on another way, it's stock price won't be at this level today if it is not due to the weakening of RM..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bursa Dummy2 October 2015 at 08:41

      Ya, the forex concern is real. BJAuto's average operating profit margin currently is about 16%, but MYR has depreciated 20% against JPY now... If MYR stays weak in 2016 then may be it's a better time to buy BJAuto in 2016. Anyway all other auto makers are also affected, but I think I'll still consider BJAuto if it reach my entry price, as I plan for long term and we'll never know for sure what will happen in the near future. It does sound a bit insane to buy an import stock rather than an export stock at this time though.

      Delete
    2. Valuegrowth883 October 2015 at 08:32

      I was told by my sales man friend that all car prices will likely to increase in near future to compensate for the unfavourable forex. If that happens, profit margin can be maintained but car sales/revenue may come down. So, I guess that will still affect net profit negatively..

      Delete
    3. Bursa Dummy5 October 2015 at 20:08

      Toyota will increase in price next year. Though DRBHicom said no price increase yet, I think they certainly will do it next year if MYR remain weak. We might see people rushing to buy cars before 2016.

      Delete
  2. wachxe2 October 2015 at 02:33

    Superlon train has started, never really study it till I saw the latest QR impressive. How bout o&g related stock such as coastal & favco? Can buy on weakness too

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bursa Dummy2 October 2015 at 08:46

      I think it's not wrong to start accumulating good O&G stocks bit by bit. I just learned a lesson from plantation, I think may be I should start buying earlier...

      Delete
  3. Xyz2 October 2015 at 10:57

    Hi bursa dummy, take a look at Notion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bursa Dummy5 October 2015 at 18:43

      Yeah, it's a good "opportunistic" investment. It may be worth a bet, but I still doubt its long term prospect...

      Delete
    2. Xyz6 October 2015 at 18:34

      U mean the opportunistic is because of high USD/RM?

      I guess USD/RM will remain high in these 2 yrs. Thus they will have good prospect in 2016 and 2017.

      May u share what is ur concern?

      Delete
    3. Bursa Dummy6 October 2015 at 20:45

      My "oppotunistic" here means that most circumstances favour it now so it can be a good stock to invest in short/medium term. The main catalyst will be the end of its massive hedging loss which will certainly makes it turn into green again. Other good factors are strong USD like u mention, and also signs of improving demand for its HDD. The only concern for me is whether the demand for its HDD & camera parts can grow or not in longer term, as I view buying shares as owning part of its business :)

      Delete
    4. Xyz7 October 2015 at 21:31

      I am really amazed by u. As u able to reply promptly with the info I researced for some time. Thank you for taking your time to reply me :)

      U seem know the company well and know that it will turn into green soon. Given the current price, we know the stock is undervalued esp when the hedge loss is over. Do u mind to help me make a guess how much is the TP in near and mid term?

      Yea long term wise I also not sure how is their HDD and camera product demand going to be. But there are hope for their automation products and commercial HDD. At least, should be able to keep the company profitable..

      Delete
    5. Bursa Dummy8 October 2015 at 10:47

      I have invested in Notion before so I basically know this company. But I seldom follow it now, just read some news about it.

      I usually do a preliminary judgement on a company like this, from Notion's latest FY15Q3 result, if excluding special items like forex gain/derivatives loss/one-off gain, its quarterly net profit will be RM2.25mil, or annualized RM9mil. Base on 268mil shares, its estimated core EPS will only be 3.4sen.

      However, its forex gain of RM2.7mil in last quarter is too significant to be ignored, esp USD has gained so much on MYR in Jul-Sep15 period. If we simply add in RM10mil forex gain a year, then annual net profit could be RM19mil or EPS 7.1sen.

      But bear in mind that Notion still has outstanding hedging. Though I don't completely understand how the derivatives gain/loss is calculated, I feel that it may still register significant derivatives loss in its FY15Q4 due to super strong USD in this quarter.

      Its executive chairman sold lots of shares in open market recently. Why? No one knows but it does not look good.

      Delete
    6. Xyz8 October 2015 at 12:49

      I have been observing and researching this stock since half year ago. What I found out are:

      1) The coming Q4 should be the last Q registered with USD hedging derivatives loss. I forsee we may see a derivatives loss around 15-17.5 mil. The high USD and Euro against RM will partially offset the loss. But I think the Q4 will still register a nett loss tbh, around 4.5 mil or 2 cents per share. But some how I believe that this loss will be viewed minimal and shouldn't have much impact on its share price. In fact I'm expecting the price will shoot up even though the announced results is negative as I believe most experienced and cash rich investors will be able to see that's the bad Q is finally over and looking forward to their coming Q.

      2) Looking into FY16. As I calculated, even assuming there is no growth in their business operation and if the USD/RM is just maintained at 4.2, we might be able to see its EPS at 20 cents for FY16.

      3) About disposal of shares by the chairman. Interestingly, there is something weird about it. I observed and found it very unusual. The trades looked like a well plan trades. Looked like a passing of shares to unknown. I feel weird and have a check at i3. Some other ppl said the same thing as well.

      Plz correct me if I'm wrong.

      Thank you for your time again :)

      Delete
    7. Xyz8 October 2015 at 15:28

      Conservatively it should have EPS of 10 cents for FY16 under opportunitic conditions that u mentioned which may last for 2 yrs.

      And without the opportunitic conditions it should have EPS of 4.5 cents.

      The taxation may cause some misleading in the calculation. Thus I used few quarters to do the calculation. And I got different figures than u.

      Delete
    8. Xyz8 October 2015 at 15:31

      Perhaps I been too optimistic on it. Please share ur findings if u disagree with it. I hope I am not mislead by myself.

      Delete
    9. Bursa Dummy9 October 2015 at 12:12

      I also feel that it might register loss in its FY15Q4. I think FY16 EPS of 10sen might still be possible if USD grow stronger against MYR in the whole year and its products get more demand, but 20sen is way too optimistic for me.

      Delete
    10. Xyz10 October 2015 at 12:25

      Thanks bursa dummy :)

      Delete
    11. Xyz4 January 2016 at 01:20

      Hi bursa dummy :)

      It's me again. Please entertain me only if u free. Would like to ask ur opinion. What is ur view in ock? Will it be able to excel in 2016 and future? I've bought a bit. Thinking to add more. Just that I'm not too sure. Like to get more opinion. Thank you for ur time.

      Delete
    12. Bursa Dummy4 January 2016 at 21:29

      Hi, OCK is in my "study list" but so far I still don't have the urgency and time to study it in more detail. I will post it after doing more research on it.

      Delete
    13. Xyz4 January 2016 at 22:01

      Hiii, happy to see ur reply again :)

      Alright. I'll wait for ur research and article.

      But the price looks tempting now esp the warrant. Hehe.. roughly u think it's good to invest now?

      Delete
  4. networking4 October 2015 at 13:08

    Hi BD,

    Yeah, I also miss to add Superlon.
    What do you think about Aemulus ?

    http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=A&securityCode=0181

    http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/aemulus-share-price-marches-higher


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bursa Dummy5 October 2015 at 18:48

      I'm quite lazy to read its IPO prospectus at the moment... so I don't know much about this company. Personally I don't really like this testing business, that's why I didn't study it before its IPO, and also part of the reason I didn't pick up KESM... Too bad isn't it?

      Delete
    2. networking5 October 2015 at 22:10

      Hi BD,

      No worries. I think you should stick to your personal preference. Only when you have interest in the business, then you can hold the share for long term.

      Thanks for the reply.

      Best regads
      Brian

      Delete
    3. Bursa Dummy6 October 2015 at 20:46

      No problem :)

      Delete
  5. 谭振聪5 October 2015 at 10:54

    AWC, facility management, steady income from gov contract and extra forex gain from Singapore, recently got corp exe that u might like it, interested?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bursa Dummy5 October 2015 at 20:36

      Thanks. Though I don't like this kind of company, the proposed acquisition does look interesting. I'm totally unfamiliar with this company though. From simple calculation, base on FY15 PATAMI of RM7.78 plus profit guarantee of RM3.9mil & enlarged shares of 256mil, projected FY16 EPS will be 45.6sen. Now share price at 38sen which looks quite good. How I wish I read this announcement on 8th Sep. Surely u have taken position in AWC right?

      Delete
    2. 谭振聪7 October 2015 at 11:34

      U bet, Mr. BD, im addicted to this kind of corp exe, 屡试不爽

      Delete
    3. Bursa Dummy8 October 2015 at 10:55

      You are a real king of "company acquire other business then profit up then share price up". Next time if there is any good business acquisition hope you can alert me promptly :)

      Delete
  6. invertebrate6 October 2015 at 00:08

    Hi BD,
    Have you taken a look at PBA?
    http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/83088.jsp

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bursa Dummy6 October 2015 at 15:56

      Hi, I've just given a comment on PBA not long ago. So I'll just paste it here. Just personal opinion.

      From history, PBA's quarterly profits tend to fluctuate a lot despite stable revenue. I'm not sure why. Tariff hike will surely bring its profit to a new level so I think its current share price of RM1.07 is still low.

      I see utility stocks as stable lower risk regular income type of investment with good dividend but slower growth. Surely its revenue will continue to grow year by year after this but its profit is not guaranteed to grow together. Historically its profit is in declining trend even though revenue is increasing which means cost has been increasing non-stop. I don't think PG gov will raise tariff again in the near future, may be have to wait until 10-20 years later.

      Kedah constantly wants PG to pay for the water supply. Though I think it is unlikely to happen but it should affect PBA if it does.

      Delete

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