| Feb-16 | |
| Numbers of stocks | 13 |
| Cash:Share ratio | 30% |
| Share Sold | Geshen @ 2.48, 2.38, 2.05 (all) |
| Johotin @ 1.88 (all) | |
| Share Bought | TekSeng @ 1.18 |
| Overall 2016 | |
| Portfolio Return Feb16 | -1.3% |
| KLCI Return Feb16 | -0.78% |
| Portfolio Return YTD16 | -12.2% |
| KLCI Return YTD16 | -2.23% |
Stock Portfolio @ End of Feb16
Satellite Portfolio
| Stocks | Avg | Jan16 | Feb16 | Div 16 | Feb16(%) | Overall(%) |
| AWC | 0.375 | 0.41 | 0.435 | 6.1 | 16.0 | |
| BJAUTO | 1.92 | 2.17 | 2.20 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 14.6 |
| COMPLETE | 0.79 | 0.795 | 0.795 | 0 | 0.6 | |
| GTRONIC | 2.43 | 5.47 | 5.50 | 0.5 | 126.3 | |
| HEVEA | 0.775 | 1.35 | 1.34 | -0.7 | 72.9 | |
| INARI | 0.66 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 0.0 | 389.4 | |
| INARI-WB | n/a | 1.66 | 1.66 | 0.0 | n/a | |
| KESM | 4.80 | 4.85 | 4.32 | -10.9 | -10.0 | |
| LATITUD | 2.09 | 6.96 | 6.19 | -11.1 | 196.2 | |
| MATRIX | 1.77 | 2.37 | 2.30 | -3.0 | 29.9 | |
| MATRIX-WA | n/a | 0.400 | 0.385 | -3.8 | n/a | |
| NOTION | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.0 | -2.5 | |
| SCIENTEX | 5.47 | 10.50 | 10.72 | 26.0 | 2.1 | 96.0 |
| TAMBUN | 0.77 | 1.27 | 1.35 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 75.3 |
| TEKSENG | 1.18 | n/a | 1.12 | n/a | -5.4 |
Comment:
- No dividend ex-ed in Feb16
- Recorded second consecutive monthly loss, overall -12.2% YTD, mainly due to drop in most export stocks
- Started serious "operation" to trim portfolio
- Sold all Geshen before & after quarterly result announcement which was below expectation
- Sold all Johotin after quarterly result announcement
- Added Tek Seng into portfolio
- Cash reserve successfully raised significantly to 30%
Plan:
- Should continue to reduce the number of stocks in portfolio
i still keep Geshen. What is your advise?
ReplyDeleteI can only say that Geshen's financial performance should be able to improve after acquiring the remaining shares of Polyplas soon.
Deletemy Latitude very hurts
ReplyDeleteJust keep :)
DeleteAppreciate your comments on latest quarterly result of AWC and Complete.
ReplyDeleteCheers
Will try to work on that :)
DeleteLooking forward and million thanks!!!:-).
DeleteI am interested in buying either Gadang or Kimlun as both of them are involved in LRT3 and MRT2 projects. Which one do you prefer ?
ReplyDeleteCheers
I don't know much about Kimlun, can't really choose one. Kimlun gets lots of job last year compared to Gadang, and both have almost similar outstanding jobs value now at RM900mil+. Gadang will have extra contribution from Capital City. So it depends on who gets more jobs in 2016.
DeleteThe recent sell off of export oriented companies seem over react....latitude now at price rm5.7x， which is really out of imagination. What is your opinion on this?
ReplyDeleteI think Latitude's share price is unfairly beaten down. I hope it can make some good acquisition and find new markets other than US.
Deleteother than Kesm, which co. is in the forefront of automotive semicon testing?
ReplyDeleteis they any barrier for smartphone testing player to enter automotive testing segment?
need to invest new machine or diff skill set for workers?
Sorry to say that I'm not good at this. Hope someone else can help to answer.
DeleteWould Elsoft qualify ? Excerpt from Kenanga's research paper on Elsoft Reseach Bhd on 17 Feb 2016:
DeleteINVESTMENT MERIT
· A direct proxy to the growing segments of the semiconductorsector. Differentiating itself from the standard test and inspection solutions equipment manufacturers, ELSOFT focuses on LED test and burn-in systems as well as application-specific embedded systems that are specifically designed to meet customers’ various requirements. More importantly, 85% of its revenue (as of 9M15) is derived from customers with exposure in the fast-growing Smart Devices and defensive Automotive segments, which made it a direct proxy to the bright spots in the semiconductor sector. Unlike some other components manufacturers which are already seeing slowdown in sales from a high base, ELSOFT, being an equipment manufacturer which benefits from LED products innovation, is still resilient due to its niche markets.
I think so.. Thanks :)
DeleteHi BD, to answer your question, I should quote the following statement from KESM report :"KESM completes the final phase of its four year development programme, which provides a fully integrated flow which monitors and controls the test during burn-in process. The system identifies how, when and where devices or equipment may fail before, during or after the burn-in and test process."
DeleteAutomotive semiconductor requires more stringent reliability test because they are expected to last longer than smartphone semiconductor. In "traditional" burn-in system, the chip is taken out from burn-in oven after certain hours, say 100 hrs, for testing to see if it can still pass test. If it fails, the tester would not know if the chip was actually failed at 30hrs or 50hrs or at 99hrs. Thus, the info obtained cannot be very accurate to predict the reliability of the chip.
KESM's 4 year development programme has successfully developed a better system as quoted by KESM report above. The new system able to "identifies how, when and where devices or equipment may fail before, during or after the burn-in and test process."
Thus, if there is any other smartphone testing player are interested to venture into developing the similar advance automotive test system like KESM does, they can but that needs time and technology. In this case, KESM already has the leading advantage.
Thanks for your info valuegrowth88, really appreciate it. Are you in this industry?
DeleteU are welcome. I am not really from this industry but I worked in semiconductor industry before. Most of the semiconductor manufacturers have conventional burn-in oven for reliability testing, so we did know something about burn-in process/system.
DeleteQuarterly results just released, I think it is very good, and on the right track!
DeleteSo many can't answer....yet you buy them? Omg.
ReplyDeleteAs an average amateur investor, it's hard for me to know the company and industry in and out before making an investment decision.
DeleteIs Johotin game over ?
ReplyDeleteI noticed the following in it's latest quarterly report :
The negatives are the profit margin for F&B segment came down significantly and management just simply explained it was due to high operating costs. Besides, its inventory as well as debt increased quite significantly. Resulting, poor EPS and cash flow.
Management didn't give updates about the progress of the new milk packaging factory and warehouse..i wonder why.
The EPS could be worse if not saved by the RM3.3mil property disposal gain.
Having said that, I also noticed the revenue RM114.3mil was at record high, and the capex has increased to RM25.5mil in this Q compared to RM8.6mil in preceding quarter.
In previous quarterly reports, management mentioned the new factory/warehouse are supposed to be ready by the end of 2015. I am thinking is the high capex due to the purchase of new m/c for the new factory ? Is the increased inventory because Johotin stock up milk for their new packaging factory or it was due to stock in transit as what happened in Q1FY15 ? Can the much higher operating cost in this Q was due to initial setup cost for the new factory/warehouse ?
If the above are true, Johotin will achieve better financial result in the coming quarter. It is sad that the management didn't give clearer explanation, especially on the progress of the new factory/warehouse..
Anyway, Johotin may or may not be game over, I think.
The milk packaging factory is clearly delayed again, and higher capex and borrowings should point towards completion soon. Though I have sold its shares, I might consider to buy back once there is good profit coming from this factory. Anyway, it might incur loss before economy of scale is achieved.
Delete