| Mac16 | |
| Numbers of stocks | 13 |
| Cash:Share ratio | 22.0% |
| Share Sold | None |
| Share Bought | KESM @ 3.91 |
| Overall 2016 | |
| Portfolio Return Mac16 | -0.3% |
| KLCI Return Mac16 | 3.80% |
| Portfolio Return YTD16 | -12.3% |
| KLCI Return YTD16 | 1.48% |
Stock Portfolio @ Mac16
Satellite Portfolio
| Stocks | Avg | Feb16 | Mac16 | Div 16 | Mac16(%) | Overall(%) |
| AWC | 0.375 | 0.435 | 0.45 | 3.4 | 20.0 | |
| BJAUTO | 1.92 | 2.20 | 2.17 | 4.65 | -0.4 | 13.0 |
| COMPLETE | 0.79 | 0.795 | 0.780 | -1.9 | -1.3 | |
| GTRONIC | 2.43 | 5.50 | 5.41 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 122.6 |
| HEVEA | 0.775 | 1.34 | 1.19 | 0.75 | -10.6 | 53.5 |
| INARI | 0.66 | 3.23 | 3.22 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 387.9 |
| INARI-WB | n/a | 1.66 | 1.65 | -0.6 | n/a | |
| KESM | 4.42 | 4.32 | 4.13 | -4.4 | -6.6 | |
| LATITUD | 2.09 | 6.19 | 5.39 | -12.9 | 157.9 | |
| MATRIX | 1.77 | 2.30 | 2.48 | 3.75 | 9.5 | 40.1 |
| MATRIX-WA | n/a | 0.385 | 0.435 | 13.0 | n/a | |
| NOTION | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 2.6 | 0.0 | |
| SCIENTEX | 5.47 | 10.72 | 12.96 | 26.0 | 20.9 | 136.9 |
| TAMBUN | 0.77 | 1.35 | 1.45 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 88.3 |
| TEKSENG | 1.18 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 0.0 | -5.1 |
Comment:
- YTD 12.3% portfolio loss underperforms KLCI's 1.48% gain, mainly due to bearish sentiment in export-orientated stocks
- Dividend ex-ed in Mac16: BJAuto (2.15sen), Gtronic (9sen), Hevea (0.75sen), Inari (2.4sen) & Matrix (3.75sen)
- Add more KESM shares at RM3.91
- Scientex proposed 1:1 bonus issue
- Not so active in stock market since Feb16, probably will keep these stocks for longer term
Plan:
- May add more KESM
- Keep cash
Hi DB, my take on export stocks is as below.
ReplyDeleteThere will a lot of realised and unrealised forex losses for export stocks. EPS for export companies are expected dive very sharply for earning ending 31-3-2016.
For example, let's say an export company billed its customers USD100mil (Equivalent to RM430mil) on December, 2015, but only collected the USD100mil (equivalent to RM405mil) on 1-3-2016, then the realised forex losses is RM25mil. This "minus RM25mil" is hefty and will eat into net profit significantly.
I may be wrong, for this reason, I stay out from export stocks.
Cheers~
Angie, your assumption made some sense but i think in most cases they dont work that way. It depends also on the USD denomonated loan and USD trade payable that will play important part in balancing the forex exposure. These will eventually lead to "net exposure". Most export companies will also reduce their exposure by going into money market. Perhaps a better approach is to study the past record of export based companies and check their performance in these area.
DeleteI think it's quite complicated.. but for sure their profit will drop if there is no increase in sales volume or demand. May be the best way is to see their results when the exchange rate is at around RM4, which is around Q3 of 2015.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteAgreed. Indeed very complicated and also usually very not transparent when come to this as quarter reports will not detail out all. Just hope the volume will not drop too much in coming quarters.
Deleteim gonna buy Hevea now at 1.2, do u think now is the best opportunity to get in?
ReplyDeleteHevea is "out of theme" but I'll still keep, and might add more also if price drops significantly.
DeleteLiihen also good, Notion dun touch la, do no good
ReplyDeleteLets see :)
Delete2015 was quite a bull, think 2016 will sideway?
ReplyDeleteYa, I think so. But still can earn money even in a bad market.
DeleteI agree money can also be earned in bad market.
DeleteRecently, Globetronic's stock price has taken a surprise and great hit. Apart from bad sales in last Q, other main reason was RM4.6mil forex loss. I think the forex loss factor should be one-off item unless RM continue to strengthen a lot till end Jun. Otherwise, i think next Q result should show improvement though it still can't be on par with Q4'15 result.
I think it is an opportunity to grab more Globetronic's stock at this price and wait for recovery, what do you think :) ?
The only concern I have is analysts reported that adoption of 3D imaging sensor will be delayed to year 2017! However, when i read news related to Apple, no news reported that iPhone7 launch will be delayed to 2017..does that mean iPhone7 will be without 3D imaging sensor improvement...?
If that is the case, buying Globetronics now will need to hold till at least year 2017 to see significant recovery..
Can I know what do you think about my above concern ?
Tq.
Wow, Globetronic is getting cheaper and cheaper, and very tempting now.
ReplyDeleteThere are many news about the delay of adoption of 3D imaging sensor, but I think i better listen to HengHL directly, he told Star and Busy Weekly that :"there will be 3 new sensor products for it's existing customers, and they will be released in the late 2nd Q or early 3rd Q, and the sensors are for smart phones & smart devices of the mid and premium categories." I am thinking the followings :
i) Can the premium smart phone be iPhone7 and mid range smart phone be iPhone6 SE.
ii) Three sensor products are more than initially thought, which is one 3D imaging sensor. I wonder what are the other two sensor products. Anyway, more is surely better.
iii) The release date can be as early as end of 2nd Q (Jun'16), so the sensor is still possible for iPhone7 which to be launched in Sept'16.
I did a calculation excluding forex gain/loss, the QoQ EPS reduction is 31% vs 76% if include forex gain/loss. Thus, i think the 31% reduction is kind of no surprise to Gtronic's forecast but market reacted to the extreme..
However, the profit drop in this Q may affect market's perception on Gtronic in future and no longer willing to give it double digit PE as Gtronic does not seem as "robust" as it was. This is my concern but i also do not want to miss opportunity to buy cheap.
I am interested to know what you think :) ?
When was the news about what Mr HengHL said being released? I'm not putting a close eye on it recently..
DeleteThe main concern for me is about its proximity sensor which might be phased out or substituted by competitors. 3D imaging sensor might be able to fill the hole but too bad it is said to be deferred til 2017.
I think 2016 will be a bad year for Gtronic, and so its share price might drop further. I did think of disposing all its shares but I chose to stay with it for longer term. My shareholding in Gtronic is only little and may be this is the chance to get more.
You can refer to Busy Weekly (latest vol. 374) about what HengHL has said. I suppose you subscribe to the magazine.
DeleteI also just read 2015 annual report dated 14th Apr'16, and got to know that the 3 sensor products to be launched in 2H16 are imaging, motion and gesture sensors. It sounds like imaging sensor will still be released in year 2016 rather than 2017..
I also don't see any confirmed news from HengHL that their proximity sensor will be phased out or substituted by competitors, if that is true, it will be disastrous.
I also saw HengHL mentioned "Korean" customer in annual report, so the 3 new sensors may also cater for Samsung apart from Apple.
I think the success or failure of launching the 3 new sensor products will determine if Gtronic can turnaround in 2H2016. Otherwise, have to hold till year 2017.
BTW, Gtronic next growth engine would be components for IoT, they have set up team to develop IoT components.
Thanks for your info. I only subscribed to Busy Weekly for one year which ended in 2015.
DeleteIt seems like the imaging sensor will go into production in 2H 2016 but the volume has been revised significantly downward. Full production expected in 2017. Last year there was a news report saying that its 15Q4 orders were so good until it spilled over to Q1 of 2016... Now it is a different story though. Despite all these, I'm still quite confident investing in this company, at least at this moment :)
Thanks for sharing your thought.
ReplyDeleteAfter reading articles and it's 2015 annual report, I do think it is worth taking the bet to invest in Globetronics. If every things are rosy, it won't sell at this price. I would buy and hold for the better quarters or year to come.