Sunday 3 January 2021

My Portfolio Dec20



Summary For December 2020












Portfolio @ End of Dec20















December 2020 is another good month for my portfolio which gains 13.7%. This raises the annual gain to 95.4% which is much better than my target of 30%.

Year 2020 is a tough year for many of us, but the best opportunities always hide in a crisis. 

This is very true in stock market investment. A crash in share price produces a superb opportunity for investors to grab good stocks at much lower price.

I think most medium to long term investors, or fundamentalist should do well in stock market in year 2020. Our KLCI closes higher by 2.4% for the year and US indices break new highs.

As I have mentioned last month, I was actually very fortunate to invest in SCIB, KPower and Jaks. These 3 stocks contributed massively to my portfolio gain this year.

SCIB has risen by 176% since I first bought it in the end of May20. Its 3:1 bonus issue has just been ex-ed and I'm waiting for its free warrants which is yet to be announced.

Since most contracts awarded in the second half of 2020 started from Oct20, I'd expect a great FY20Q4 results for SCIB unless there are delays or start-up losses.

As for Jaks, investors should not expect a "beautiful" FY20Q4 results in Feb21 even though the unit 1 of its Vietnam Thermal Power Plant has officially commenced operation since 24th Nov 2020.

Most investors expect RM200mil annual net profit to Jaks when two units of the power plant are running at full steam. In average, one unit can contribute ~RM8mil net profit in one month and this might not be able to cover its initial cost. 

Jaks is bidding for LSS4 solar project and if it succeeds, it will be a catalyst to its share price. However, I read from an analyst report that it has only a slim chance given the huge amount of bidders.

The mother share price of Jaks gains 48.9% since I started to invest in them. If I were to include the warrants, overall gain up to the end of 2020 is 72.5%.

KPower should be my best investment in 2020 but I sold it way too early. I have to accept it as I just can't buy at the lowest and sell at the highest. Compare to Adventa, this is nothing.

Year 2020 sees a turnaround of 2 losing stocks in my portfolio. They are Prolexus and Leon Fuat.

Prolexus rose because of its impressive profit from selling ProX Mask during the pandemic. I have sold all its shares after FY21Q1 result announcement as it did not meet my expectation even though in term of PE ratio, it's still quite "cheap".

Leon Fuat rides on a small steel bull run in the end of 2020. I still hold on to its shares and plan to wait for next quarter result since the trend is still there.

As for Hibiscus, I have lowered my average price from RM1.05 to RM0.70 and I hope that crude oil price will continue its recovery road in 2021. I also hope that it can acquire good producing assets soon.

I have 4 tech-related stocks in my portfolio. All of them are not very well-known and certainly not star performers.

I chose Genetec over Greatech, I chose JHM over D&O. Both are not good decisions in hindsight. 

Krono's share price makes some progress but I read somewhere that its business model is not that good. I'm not too sure about that and what I can do is to wait for its next quarter result. It's still in loss at -9.2%

Smetric-WA is the best performer in my portfolio in Dec20 with a 62% gain in one month. I actually "hoped" for this to happen when I bought this super penny warrants in Nov20. 

Now I'm still undecided whether to sell it for a quick 50% gain or hold longer to see whether the company can grow. It might drop back to the ground if it can't grow its business and deliver consistent profit.

Scientex will have its bonus shares and free warrants ex-ed on 13/1/2021. I don't expect its share price to grow fast but I'd just hold this "steady" stock for longer term.

Supermax is the biggest loser in my portfolio in Dec20 with a 34% decline in a month. Initially I thought that I'll just leave the shares aside without adding more but now I think I might want to average down again.

Market is very negative towards gloves stocks now and I don't know whether the sentiment will ever turn positive. Perhaps the only way for Supermax share price to go up is to diversify and acquire significant stake in growing tech company with its abundant cash (just kidding).

Pos, Master & MyNews are newly added stocks for 2021. However, I still don't have confidence to promote any of them into my core portfolio. 

Master's next FY20Q4 result might not be very good but I expect gradual recovery starting from year 2021. I hope that it can secure more new customers.

As for MyNews, its share price in Nov20 fell below the worst moment in Mac20. Its upcoming quarterly result is not expected to be good but I decided to buy some of its shares first pending the announcement of the opening of its first CU store soon.

Lastly, Daya just announced its PN17 regularisation plan in which a new company will take over its subsidiaries. Frankly I don't understand fully all those exercises and I'm also lazy to read all of them.

Is it good for existing shareholders? I really don't know. If its share price drop, then probably it's not good, and vice versa.


In 2021, investors might concentrate on "recovery stocks" such as aviation, gaming, oil & gas, consumer, construction and finance stocks.

I think technology stocks, especially those related to big data, cloud, 5G, automation, e-payment, electric vehicles etc might still have room to grow and renewable energy related stocks might benefit from inevitable global trend of clean energy.

Manufacturing in general should continue to do well but the major concern for me is the possibility of weakening of USD against RM as most companies are export orientated.

Overall, year 2020 has been a great year in term of stock market investment for me. However, I'm aware that I should not be over-confident. I'm just an ordinary investor with a bit of luck this year.

Previously when my portfolio achieved very good gain in a year, the subsequent year will make loss mainly due to starting the new year on a high. 

When you climb higher, the chance to fall is also higher.

So, I guess realizing some profits is important to minimize the risk of portfolio loss in this year, and I still have a lot to learn in term of selling stocks.


8 comments:

  1. Wow, 95.4% ! I think if the amount of money u invested is about your one-year salary, then your stock investment return in 2020 is more than your annual salary after tax. And, this return is achieved with much less total hour than your daytime job :)

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    1. More or less, my capital in stock market is not that big actually. I'm not buying a stock in hundreds of thousands :)

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  2. "Leon Fuat rides on a small steel bull run in the end of 2020. I still hold on to its shares and plan to wait for next quarter result since the trend is still there."
    I am optimistic on the prospect for the flat steel at least until Q1'21. For the long steel, i think downstream players like LeonF should do better than upstream players, eg. AnnJoo/SSteel, as both long steel price and the cost of iron ore have increased together. Besides, Alliance steel is a big threat to our local long steel upstream players.
    I bought some Melewar/Mycron and CSCSteel in Dec'20 because they are flat steel and long steel downstream players. Their stock price surged before i could accumulate enough :( Thus, they can only be the "non-core" stocks in my portfolio now.

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  3. "I chose Genetec over Greatech"
    I think Genetec will do well in Q4'20. I like what the management guided in its Q3'20 quarterly report: "The Group has positioned itself to benefit from the Covid-19 beneficiary industry such as the Electric Vehicle "EV" segment. With the existing orders on hand, the Group anticipates to achieve satisfactory performance in the remaining quarters."
    The positives are Genetec supplies to EV industry which is the growing sector, and management hinted they will do well in Q4'20. The negative is Genetec is an ATE player and its revenue/earnings have not been consistent and depending on the capex of its customers. I cannot be certain what will be its order like after the Q4'20 and into year 2021.

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  4. "Market is very negative towards gloves stocks now and I don't know whether the sentiment will ever turn positive."
    Glove stocks are acting “strange” lately. Their fundamental remains good and coming quarters should post as good or better earnings, and many analysts gave much higher target price than their stock prices now, and yet, their stock prices keep coming down..I think market people are looking beyond 2021 and into year 2022 when they expect glove demand subdues (?) Anyway, i picked up a small amount of Supermax and TopGlove this morning for short-term play :P I think their prices now is very cheap if based on their current earnings. But, I dare not buy a lot because I have to respect the “market force” and “market sentiment” on glove stocks now. I think the re-start of short selling is part of the reasons for declining stock price today.

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  5. I bought the 1st batch of MyNews today. It is always in my watch list, and your involvement “motives”me to make the buy decision :) The negative is analyst reveals that its FPC only has chance to breakeven in year 2022. I think MyNews’ performance in 2021 depends on how successful the CU store can be. If it can receive the warm welcome like Family Mart, then things will turn out well. The positive is when pandemic and MCO eases in 2021, MyNews will almost certain to perform better in 2021 than preceding year. Its depressed price level now provides a safe entry.

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  6. “Previously when my portfolio achieved very good gain in a year, the subsequent year will make loss mainly due to starting the new year on a high. When you climb higher, the chance to fall is also higher. So, I guess realizing some profits is important to minimize the risk of portfolio loss in this year, and I still have a lot to learn in term of selling stocks.”
    I also have this phobia. Presently, I am holding heavy portfolio and my cash position is low just like the situation in last Jan 2020 before the pandemic hit. I worry history may repeat…
    On the other hand, I feel optimistic about year 2021 at least until end Q1’21. I do not see any potential bad thing to happen in 1H2021. Trump is going out so US-China tariff war should ease, vaccine is distributing thus the pandemic should not create another great panic, centre bank in many countries have lowered their interest rate, hot money are running around….and so on. But, I still plan to cut my holdings to half by end Mar’21 to take profit out and leave the balance throughout year 2021. I hope my plan can realise and no more nightmare this year.

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  7. value88, I do hope that Genetec can start to deliver consistent profit this year, and investors will see it as an EV-related stock, which is the next big thing. This is similar to JHM which is also a bit EV-related that's why I invested in them last year.

    For myNEWS actually I wish I can promote it to my core portfolio, just that in term of PE, it's still not very very low at 60sen. In long term it looks like a sure win, imagine 500 CU stores in 5 years.

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