Summary For January 2021
Portfolio @ End of Jan21
January 2021 is another good month for my portfolio which gains 34.5%. It has exceeded my portfolio annual return target of 30%.
The main reason is SCIB again which rose 88% in Jan21 and it carries a huge percentage in my portfolio.
Anyway this is just paper gain and as of today it has dropped 20% in the last 2 trading days. Its bonus issue of warrants just ex-ed yesterday and will only be listed 2 weeks later on 16 Feb 2021.
Besides SCIB, technology related stocks in my portfolio also performed well in line with most tech stocks in KLSE.
Genetec, JHM & Krono's share prices increased 59%, 30% & 11% respectively, but Smetric-WA suffered a loss of 23%.
Supermax is another stock with positive return at 13%. Personally I'm quite excited in the future of this company, but I'm not sure whether its share price will continue to move up this year when more and more people get vaccinated.
Supermax has just released its FY21Q2 result which registered RM2bil revenue and RM1.06bil PATAMI in a single quarter. This is very impressive for this once the smallest company of the "Big 4".
Other than those mentioned above, the share prices of all other stocks in my portfolio dropped.
January is not a good month in general for KLSE, as the KLCI index retreated 3.74% while most stock markets in the world are flying high. The restart of short-selling, MCO 2.0 and darurat all play a part.
In Jan21, I sold all my Scientex-WC since it unexpectedly limited up 3 times. I don't hold too many Scientex shares so the "free" warrants I got are only a little. The gain does not contribute significantly to my overall portfolio.
I averaged down myNEWS and with this I have completed my first batch of purchase in the stock.
As Covid-19 is getting out of control recently, it can only be bad news for myNEWS. The opening of CU stores should be delayed and its next quarter result might not be good.
I added Rhonema into my portfolio this month, even though PE wise, it's not that attractive.
I like its venture into fresh milk production business. Even though it has recently doubled its cows to around 170, it's still very far from Farm Fresh's >3,500 cows.
As it is still operating in a very small scale and the management has intention to grow the business, I think it has lots of room to grow. It even plans to have its own brand of fresh milk in the market.
Nevertheless, Rhonema only owns 49% in the fresh milk business.
February is financial report releasing month. All companies in my portfolio except myNEWS & Scientex will release their report in Feb21.
I don't have too much expectation this time. My main focus will still be on SCIB which is almost certain to post improved & record-breaking result QoQ.
The second unit of JAKS Hai Duong power plant has commenced COD on 25 Jan 2021, after the first unit achieved COD on 24th Nov 2020.
JAKS's FY20Q4 result will depend mainly on its construction profit especially from the Vietnam power plant, while its power generation will not contribute significantly.
However, we will see almost full contribution (~85%) from the power plant for FY21Q1 (Jan21-Mac21).
Since the previous quarter report of JAKS has a significant disposal gain, I don't expect it to better its previous quarter. Any profit will be good.
Of course I hope that all the companies in my portfolio can deliver improved results QoQ but I don't have very high confidence as Covid-19 might increase admin cost and reduce production.
POS is slow to dispose off its loss-making subsidiaries in aviation segment. I don't know how much impairment it's going to make again.
Its ground handling business will be negatively affected by the drastic drop in passenger flights. However, cargo handling is expected to do well as air freight demand increases due to lack of containers in sea freight.
Anyway, my focus now is to "defend" my gain in Jan21 for the rest of 2021, and work carefully to improve the gain if the overall market is favourable.
However, it seems like a mountain to climb as my portfolio gain already fell a lot in the first trading day of February!
34.5% !
ReplyDeleteYeah, Bursa stocks were, in general, performed badly in Jan'21. But, i am positive on the stock performance in Feb bcos many companies should post better earnings in Oct-Dec'20 quarter.
I do not see FxGxxxx in your Jan's portfolio, not interested :) ?
Have you heard about "Value Partners" ? It's founder is a Penang guy, and his fund has been performing well. I just listened to his latest video clips and feel like sharing here; i think he explains the changes in value investing well :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt3KNcAdWz4
Some of the key points in Cheah Cheng Hye's talk in video clips :
ReplyDeletei) Value investing has evolved, and therefore, value investors should also make changes/adjustments accordingly in their approach.
ii) Before 2009 - the emphasis was on quality of business, management and price, i.e. 3R - Right business, Right management & Right price. After 2009 - the emphasis was on quality of business and management. He is willing to give higher PE multiple now.
iii) The most important component for stock price increase now is PER expansion.
iv) Today's style is no longer buy low, sell high; it should be Buy Right, Sit Tight. The changes is due to there are many resources able to provide number crunching data and professionals have lost their advantages in this area. Therefore, exercising judgment to select superior business becomes the key now.
Based on the changes in approach above, he changes the term "Value Investing" to "Quality Value Investing".
ReplyDeleteI suppose if the above approaches were being used, one might able to spot on Amazon or Tesla when their PE was very high or even at negative region years ago. Buy right (willing to buy at higher PER as long as it is a right business) and sit tight.
This is another very interesting and educating video clips from Value Partners :
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9Yf11qGVRY
He advises to make more money from stock market this year and next, so that we can afford to lose some of the money in later year :p
For FP I'm still waiting for the right time and might wait for the QR. It's one of a few stocks that I consider to invest in near term.
DeleteI watched the second video of Value Partners you shared here. The PE expansion theory is happening on almost all tech stocks now. Just 2 years ago tech stock's PE is about 20-30, now it's easily above 60. I sold my Inari & Frontken shares last year as their PE were already "high" at 30+... now their PE of 60 are acceptable to investors.
Starting from the middle of last year I'm more willing to buy high PE stocks, such as JHM, SMetric, Rhonema etc. These are those kind of stocks I won't touch previously. I'm not sure whether there is any difference from the 1990s but I think during a bull market almost all stocks will have high PE so I just want to ride on it. When it's too hot then it might crash back to lower PE.