Summary For February 2021
Stock Portfolio @ End of Feb21
Feb21 breaks my record of most transactions done in a month since 2013. I made a total of 10 buy/sell transactions.
Nevertheless, my portfolio lost 1% in this month.
Most of the stocks in my portfolio perform well in Feb21, but 3 stocks with big losses (Supermax, SCIB, Rhonema) are adequate to drag the whole portfolio into red, especially SCIB.
SCIB's share price dropped 18.6% this month, which is kind of expected after staging big rally in Jan21. I have sold ~30% of SCIB in early Feb21 to lock in profit while the rest I planned to wait for its FY20Q4 result.
I was a bit disappointed with its FY20Q4 result to be honest, in which its revenue and core net profit do not meet my own expectation.
This is due to slower than expected revenue recognition and I'd expect better revenue for the next quarter.
Anyway, SCIB has secured new contracts worth RM821mil so far this year. In order to achieve the management target of RM2.5bil outstanding contract value by the end of 2021, I expect it to grab at least RM2bil new contracts this year.
Its share price has retreated from a high of RM3 (before warrant adjustment) to current RM1.73. Should I continue to hold its shares?
Personally I feel SCIB can grow into something big in the future so I plan keep its shares. The only problem is that it carries too much weightage in my portfolio.
Datuk Karim aims to double SCIB's size to RM2bil market cap in 2021. If he "keeps his promise" again just like in 2020, then SCIB's share price has to be at least RM4.
Supermax's share price keeps dropping and I don't know where is the bottom. I'm tempted to average down but I think I'll wait for a consolidation phase to form first.
Its share price rebounded 13% today. If it stages a sharp V-shape recovery, then I might miss it like during Mac last year.
Among all the companies in my portfolio who announced quarterly results in Feb21, I think LeonFB and Uchitec are impressive.
On the other hand, Genetec, POS and SMetric are disappointing. I do expect POS to register loss due to its usual impairment loss in the final quarter, but I don't expect it to be that bad.
I sold all its shares at a loss mainly because I'm not too happy with its management. I think they should at least inform investors that its main parcel processing center has been shut down for as long as 2 months due to Covid-19 outbreak.
When I bought Genetec's shares last year, I already have a plan to hold at least until February this year because from previous year's trend, it posted its best quarter results and announced contract wins in February.
As its share price already shot up so much before the release of its result, I took the opportunity to sell half and then all after the disappointing result.
As expected, it announced contract win later but its share price keeps going up despite bad results, and is still staying high close to RM6.
SMetric registers a loss of R3.3mil for its FY20Q4, even though there are a few one-off impairment losses of approximately RM2mil.
Since I do not invest a lot in this company, I plan to hold and see whether its share price can stay resilient since it's a tech-related stock.
JHM & Rhonema's quarter results are so-so and their share prices drop perhaps they do not meet market's expectation.
For Hibiscus, it's a so-so result as well but its share price reacts more towards crude oil price. However, there is a surprise first ever dividend of 0.5sen.
I think Rhonema has good potential to grow but my entry price is too high. It is my mistake and I'll look for an opportunity to average down if it continues to do well.
I added Uchitec into my portfolio in Feb21, because the management has indirectly hinted that it will have its record high revenue in FY20Q4.
It's a company with slow & steady growth. I hope that market will give it higher PE valuation during this tech bull run, supported by its high dividend yield.
I added more shares of myNEWS in Feb21, simply because I think its business can only improve after the various types of MCOs are lifted. I'm encouraged by the management's effort to cut logistic cost and improves its food processing center's utilization rate though upcoming CU stores.
However, quarterly loss in the first half of 2021 seems inevitable for myNEWS.
I sold some shares in Jaks to realize some profit, just like SCIB. I think a lot of investors might expect a very good result for its FY20Q4 which is yet to be released.
I don't have too high expectation on it but I bet for a good result in FY21Q1.
Jaks, Krono & Master delay the release of their quarter reports to Mac. Scientex and myNEWS will also release their results this month.
For me it's not easy to find a stock to invest in now. Some companies report good financial results but once I see that their profits mainly come from property development, I lost my interest.
Ya, I'm still quite reluctant to invest in property stocks now, even though their worse time might be over.
One of the stocks that I'm very interested in is Airasia, but it seems like something is holding me back from buying it.
I think I better be more patient now and only wait for a major correction to buy any shares.
"Among all the companies in my portfolio who announced quarterly results in Feb21, I think LeonFB and Uchitec are impressive."
ReplyDeleteThe earnings performance for steel stocks in Q4 is generally very good. I have several flat steel stocks and their Q4 earnings were all impressive and the prospect in coming quarter also sounded positive. My Feb'21 performance is satisfactory mainly helped by commodity stocks, i.e. steel and O&G. In 2H 2021, if and when the construction industry improves, i suppose the steel stocks' performance can improve further. I plan to hold on to them for longer term.
That's why I added LeonFB shares. Its improved results are mainly from higher demand, new products offering and better cost control, not much on higher steel price
Delete"I do expect POS to register loss due to its usual impairment loss in the final quarter, but I don't expect it to be that bad.I sold all its shares at a loss mainly because I'm not too happy with its management. I think they should at least inform investors that its main parcel processing center has been shut down for as long as 2 months due to Covid-19
ReplyDeleteoutbreak."
Yeah, i am also surprised and disappointed by the uninformed shut-down of its parcel processing center in Q4. I do own some POS stocks and still holding it. The reason is i still have hope that its earnings will turnaround in year 2021; the management guided that its turnaround plan in 2021 is still on-track. As such, i will hold to see the next quarterly result.
"JHM & Rhonema's quarter results are so-so and their share prices drop perhaps they do not meet market's expectation."
ReplyDeleteOn JHM, i read Kenanga analyst report dated 21st Jan'21 "Recovery Momentum to Continue", and feel positive about its future growth plan and prospect. It's Q4 revenue is also the 2nd highest in record (highest was in Q3'20). Its core EPS was 1.93sen vs 1.44sen reported EPS; the difference mainly came from high forex loss (again) in this Q4. Thus, i think its Q4 earnings was actually okay and core EPS improved YoY and QoQ. US dollar has been stabilized in Q1'21, thus the forex loss may not happen again in coming quarter.
I may add JHM on price weakness.
Perhaps investors compare JHM directly with D&O, that's why it's "disappointing"
Delete"For Hibiscus, it's a so-so result as well but its share price reacts more towards crude oil price. However, there is a surprise first ever dividend of 0.5sen."
ReplyDeleteI have quite a number of O&G stocks and have disposed some to take profit in Feb'21. I doubt crude oil price can sustain at US67 per barrel, i think its fair price at this point of time should be at US60 or below. The reason for its sharp rise in Feb should relate to Texas' abnormal cold weather which has impacted the oil production there. When the issue eases, crude oil price should drop from current level.
Having said that, i do see oil price can rise to US67 and more when approaching end 2021, when global Covid-19 cases are much reduced. O&G stocks will then have more legs to run, and that's why i still holding on to some O&G stocks.
"I think Rhonema has good potential to grow"
ReplyDeleteRhonema is also in my watch list; I plan to buy some but i cannot find the info i would like to know to make me feel comfortable. Its capex in last 2 quarters have been high, i suppose it was related to its new plant but the management didn't provide any guidance on the readiness of the new plant, and how it plans to utilize the additional new capacity and etc....do u have info for these matters ?
Initially the new plant is expected to be ready by Q3 last year, I think it's been delayed by MCO. I don't have its latest progress and surprisingly it didn't mention about it in its latest QR. From its IPO prospectus, its old plant utilization for powder-based products was already above 96% in 2016, so the new plant is mainly to expand that. It also mentioned that there will be a new line for new ruminant related products. Anyway, it might result in start-up loss if utilization is poor.
Delete"I added Uchitec into my portfolio in Feb21, because the management has indirectly hinted that it will have its record high revenue in FY20Q4. It's a company with slow & steady growth. I hope that market will give it higher PE valuation during this tech bull run, supported by its high dividend yield."
ReplyDeleteUchitech's stock price has been going up gradually albeit most of the tech stocks are having price correction lately. I hope market will re-rate its PE multiple. When i refer to Genetec's price chart, its stock price didn't really rise much even one month after the superb Q3'20 quarterly result, it rose sharply later based on EV theme. I hope Uchitech's stock price will also follow the same trend, that is to rise sharpy later when market people sees it's technology and deep freezer themes :)
"I sold some shares in Jaks to realize some profit"
ReplyDeleteI am a bit surprise to know u sold some Jaks because i thought its fair value should be RM1 or above. I plan to hold till end 2021 or when its price near to RM1 per share. Maybe it is bcos u have too much Jaks and wanted to unload some to balance your portfolio.
Ya, just to lock in some profit and balance portfolio
Delete"I added more shares of myNEWS in Feb21"
ReplyDeleteI also plan to add MyNews after its coming quarterly result announcement. I expect it will be a bad quarter (again) and hope to buy at lower cost then. I think it is selling at depressed price now and will be a "recovery" stock in 2021 just like some tourism and airline related companies.
"I think I better be more patient now and only wait for a major correction to buy any shares."
ReplyDeleteYeah, me too. I sold ~25% of my portfolio in Feb'21 to take some profit away. I do not want to simply buy with the spare cash now, otherwise that will defeat the purpose. I may continue to sell more in Mar'21 if stock price can hit my target. I want to prepare cash for the next correction or small bear. I do not worry about big crash as i believe it won't happen in 2021, but a correction or small bear is inevitable because cycle always exist in stock market.