My Portfolio Jan24

Summary of January 2024

Portfolio @ End of Jan24

Jan 2024 is a special month for stock market in Malaysia. A few stocks crashed heavily with multiple limit downs which was unheard of before.

Those stocks include Rapid, YNHProp, Imaspro, SCIB, MERSEC, JSB, ARTRONIQ, APB, SRIDGE, Tanco etc with various degree of severity.

I'm quite familiar with SCIB, it is the stock that I gained the most in value so far.

After the fall of Serba Dinamik, I thought SCIB would face the same fate but it could escape by "terminating" all those questionable contracts.

Last year I did notice that SCIB's share price somehow increased steadily despite making losses. Its share price rose 10x from RM0.12 to RM1.20 in 8 months time. 

Of course I was very surprise but I didn't expect it to fall so rapidly back to below 30sen in just 3 free trading days.

Fortunately I didn't hold any of those stocks.

Nevertheless, I already have one such stock in my portfolio, which is Fast.

Contrary to its name, Fast did not fall fast, it is falling slowly like "cooking frog slowly in boiling water".

In early Jan24, its share price suddenly shot up more than 200% in 2 days. When I just started to see a bit of light in the tunnel, it came crashing down Fast.

Fast's revenue has increased tremendously from less than RM10mil a quarter to more than RM100mil a quarter, but consistent profit seems hard to come by.

I made 3 buy transaction in Jan24. When Gtronic's share price dropped suddenly probably affected by the limit down mood, I thought it was a chance to buy some to lower my average price.

At that time I think it might be dragged down by APB only, but now I know it's more than that, it's related to SCIB & ARTRONIQ as well!

I'm not sure whether I made a correct decision as its share price is still hovering at the level of RM1.45 - RM1.50 at the moment.

Besides that, I decided to add two new members into my portfolio.

TMCLife's share price also dropped a bit perhaps affected by the fear in stock market, since it has gone up for almost 30% in the last 2 months.

I like Sunway Medical more but I think I have missed the boat on Sunway. TMCLife seems to be a decent alternative.

I expect TMCLife to deliver average EPS of 0.8sen per quarter moving forward (EPS 3.2sen per year). At share price of  70sen, its projected PE ratio is 22x which is not low.

Normally I won't be interested in such "high PE" stock but I think I have to change my strategy a bit.

TMCLife is a small growing stock in healthcare sector, so I guess a PE of 25x is not too demanding.

I prepare to hold it for longer term for at least 3 years as I expect good things to happen along these years.

First, its only medical center Thomson Hospital Kota Damansara has just completed its expansion last year with enough capacity for 600 beds.

At the end of FY23 (Jun23), it has 314 operating beds, up from 308 beds in FY22 and 205 beds before the expansion project in FY21.

The bed count increased by 50% in FY22 but we only see meaningful contribution to its revenue and profit in the second half of FY23.

The second half of FY23 might as well be lifted by the opening of its cancer center since Mac23. Cancer treatment can cost a bomb.

From 314 beds, it still has room to open over 200 more beds to reach its maximum capacity of 600 beds.

Secondly, our new Yang di-Pertuan Agong Sultan Ibrahim's son DYAM Tunku Ismail is the second largest shareholder of TMCLife at 7.64%. 

Johor seems to be a good place to invest in at the moment.

The plan of Thomson Iskandar Medical Hub in Johor Bahru with a 500-beds hospital was already there but it was delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Piling work has already started before Covid but I'm not sure whether the construction has been resumed now.

It is located very near to the JB Checkpoint and the new RTS link, and is expected to be ready once the RTS link starts its operation by the end of 2026.

Historically TMCLife's share price almost reached RM1 when its annual EPS was only around 1.0-1.5sen in 2016/17. 

Now with expected annual EPS of 3.2sen, I wish the share price will break the RM1 barrier.

Initially I hope to buy its shares only at below 70sen but somehow I decided to buy first at 71.5sen.

This is only the first batch of shares in TMCLife and I plan to accumulate more when its share price drop further.

A few days after I bought the shares, its CEO was suspended due to disciplinary issue.

I thought it was a good chance to accumulate more shares at lower price but it didn't fall low enough and rebounded rather quickly.

Anyway, I don't know whether anything fishy is going on inside the group that lead to the CEO's suspension. It might still be a time bomb ticking.

Apart from TMCLife, I also added TAS into my portfolio, just on the last day of Jan24.

Initially I wrote about why I invested in TAS here but I found that it's too long. So I decided to dedicate another post for TAS later.

Overall in the first month of year 2024, my portfolio manage to gain 3.64%, but was beaten by a bullish KLCI which rose 4.0%.

With the two new members, the number of stocks in my portfolio increases again back to 13.

With such "overdiversification", I think it's extremely hard for my portfolio to achieve extraordinary annual gain of >50%.

I'm still looking for better price to dispose some of the disappointing stocks in my portfolio, and it's not hard to guess who they are.