My Portfolio Apr24

 Summary For April 2024

Portfolio @ End of Apr24

April 2024 is a great month for me as my portfolio gained 16.9%, bringing YTD gain to almost 30%.

This is due to EUPE & TAS, the 2 stocks which I invested more heavily into recently. Both of them gained 58% & 35% respectively in Apr24.

Malaysia's stock market seems to be very bullish as I can see many stocks flying up the sky.

KLCI has gained 8.3% in the first 4 months in 2024, which is its best performance since I started tracking KLCI from year 2014.

Anyway, Gtronic's share price continue to slide and lost 15% in the month.

It seems like the "SCIB phenomenon" does not apply to Gtronic.

I kept quite a lot of cash going into year 2024 but it has dried up very quickly recently. 

I have added 4 new stocks in my portfolio namely TMCLife, ADB, TAS & EUPE but just sold half of my Gtronic shares.

As I need more cash, I have to sell more shares in order to buy more.

Again, I chose to sell winners rather than losers, which is a "common mistake beginner investors tend to make".

For ADB, my target price is set at RM1. However, seeing it rising almost non-stop from 66sen to 90sen, I thought it will take a break at 90sen.

Furthermore, ADB doesn't contribute much to my portfolio as it just carries a small weight, and I don't think I will buy more of its shares at this level.

Thus I decided to sell all my ADB shares at 90sen. In hindsight, I should have waited until RM1.

T7Global became my next target to cut in order to raise more cash.

I'm a bit worried about its upcoming FY24Q1 result that's why I decided to reduce my risk exposure in T7Global.

Anyway, from the price chart it looks good, only waiting for a good news (eg good quarter result) to push it up to another high level.

As mentioned last month, I didn't buy enough TAS so I utilized the cash to buy more before it released its FY24Q3 result.

Luckily I was able to do it in time, before an analyst suddenly released a report to push the share price up one day before TAS released its quarter result.

Its latest quarter result was a superb one as expected. Revenue (RM34.5mil) and PAT (RM6.1mil - EPS 3.39) improved QoQ & YoY.

I guess TAS can achieve an average EPS of at least 12sen per year, for at least the next 2 years thus I'd like to set my target price at RM1.00.

EUPE has released a very good set of FY24Q4 result as well. 

Its revenue and PATAMI of RM107.2mil & RM14.5mil (EPS 11.22sen) respectively are better than I expected.

I only expected an EPS of 8sen in a quarter.

EUPE has unbilled sales of RM720mil in Dec23 and now its 3-months revenue from Dec23 to Feb24 was just RM107mil.

Its revenue will probably grow and I think it might be able to produce even better results in its upcoming few quarters.

I wish that its billion ringgit Circadia Belfield (GDV RM1.1bil) will be launched in Q3 but it will only be launched in Dec24 according to news report.

For its FY2025 (Mac24 to Feb25), I think EPS of 40sen is not impossible so I'll set my target price at RM2.00.

Mi has released a decent FY24Q1 result. Its revenue of RM107.1mil is its best ever Q1 revenue while PATAMI of RM26.8mil (EPS 3.0sen) is its best ever result.

There was a forex gain of RM10.5mil in this quarter but there was a forex loss of RM8mil in its preceding quarter.

In its prospect, the management ironically mentioned that "the long-waited full recovery of the semiconductor industry in 2H'2024 may just be a wishing thinking".

OK, may be it's not full, but partial recovery in 2024 is still not bad.

I added Fajarbaru Builder (Fajar) into my portfolio in Apr24. It attracted my attention when it successfully secured a handful of construction jobs recently.

Fajar is principally a construction company diversifying into property development, timber logging and plantation (mainly durian).

It posted a magnificent quarter report of FY24Q2 in Feb24. Its revenue of RM126.8mil and PATAMI of RM19.2mil (EPS 2.59sen) were 74% and 585% better than preceding quarter of RM24Q1.

There seems to be without any significant one-off gain in the result. 

Its share price was only around 30-32sen while its single quarter EPS was already 2.59sen.

Nevertheless, its share price did not move too much after the result announcement. Perhaps investors concern that it is over-relied on it sole property development project Vierra Residence @ Kinrara.

The quarterly PBT from property division in FY24Q2 of RM23.9mil made up 98% of the group overall PBT in the same quarter. This is a real concern.

Its bread and butter construction division has suffered continuous losses in the past few years. Why? 

The table below shows construction contracts won by Fajar since 2019.

Fajar's financial results were bad in the last 2-3 years and it's not a surprise as it got almost zero construction contract in calendar year 2021 & 2022.

MCO restriction might have also affected its profitability during those years as well.

Its situation seems to turn more positive since 2023.

It successfully won RM594mil worth of contracts in 2023 and has already won RM592mil in the first 4 months of 2024.

Those construction jobs might still be in early stages thus did not contribute much to its bottom line until now.

Actually almost half of its construction revenue recently comes from its internal job building Vierra Residence, which has RM170mil remaining

Its order book has dropped from RM871mil in Nov23 to RM795mil in Feb24 but since then, it has topped up RM399.6mil of new construction jobs in Mac24 & Apr24.

Thus its outstanding order book will surely top RM1bil in May24.

For its upcoming FY24Q3, I think it might not be able to beat FY24Q2's result. However, I guess an EPS of 2.0sen is possible.

The Vierra Residence (GDV RM482mil) should be able to contribute significantly for the next 2-3 quarters and I hope that its construction arm will recover in time to compensate for the slowdown in property division.

Fajar is launching phase 1 of new development Desa Green in Kuala Krai but the overall GDV is just RM69.8mil.

Another new project in Melbourne Australia is slated for launch later in 2024.

It has formed a 60/40 JV to develop a Centralised Labour Quarters worth RM136.5mil in Senawang, Negeri Sembilan but the project is still not finalized yet.

In Jun23, it has entered into an MOU with Penang Development Corporation (PDC) to explore the opportunities to develop 230-acre "Medi-City Bandar Cassia" in Batu Kawan.

It will be very positive to Fajar if the MOU turned into contracts, as it is a super huge project.

Fajar has ventured into timber logging in 2016 and plantation business in 2020. 

It has completed planting approximately 1,000 durian trees specifically Musang King and Black Thorn on its agricultural land in Port Dickson in 2020. It usually takes another 5-7 years for harvesting.

Fajar is also involved in infrastructure construction besides building construction. It has a chance to win contracts for Penang LRT and KV MRT3 projects. 

Its prospect is certainly brighter compared to the past 2-3 years but the not-so-good thing is that it has outstanding warrants which potentially dilutes its EPS by 33%.

Those warrants has an ex price of 43sen and the maturity date is still far in Oct 2026.

Depending on the margin of its construction division, I hope that it can achieve average EPS 2sen per quarter. I'll set my initial target price at 60sen.

Everyone seems to talk about AI & data centers now but I still don't have any of those related stocks in my portfolio.

Most of them has already gone up a lot. Is it too late to join the party?