Review 2016 / Preview 2017

In term of stock market investment, year 2016 was not a good year for myself with a loss of 3.16%, under-performing KLCI's loss of 3.0%.

Perhaps the time and effort we put into the stock market is proportionate to the return we get...

In 2016, I spent very little time in reading financial news, tracking companies announcement, financial results and share prices. I would say it was less than 10% of what I did in 2014 & 2015.

So, I have even less time and energy to study a company and write in this blog.

In my preview of 2016, I predicted that the value of MYR will not drop further so export orientated stocks might not do well in 2016.

It turns out that I am only half right as after a rebound in the first half of 2016, MYR weakens again to a level which is even worse than the previous year.

As a result, most export stocks suffered in the first half of 2016 but recovered slowly in the second half.

Even though my portfolio suffers loss in 2016, I'm still OK with it as it does not do a lot of damage.

This is because my portfolio ended year 2015 in a high, in which YTD portfolio gain jumped from around 60% in early November to 107% in the end of December due to spectacular run of Geshen's share price.

Of course I failed to sell at highest point and almost all export stocks tumbled in January 2016. So I started year 2016 with a loss of 10% straight away in the first month.

2016	Month (%)		YTD (%)
	Portfolio	KLCI	Portfolio	KLCI
Jan16	-10.1	-1.5	-10.1	-1.5
Feb16	-1.3	-0.8	-12.2	-2.2
Mac16	-0.3	3.8	-12.3	1.5
Apr16	-4.7	-2.6	-16.0	-1.2
May16	2.6	-2.8	-14.7	-3.4
Jun16	2.3	1.7	-13.1	-2.3
Jul16	5.8	0.0	-8.5	-2.3
Aug16	-1.0	1.5	-9.4	-0.9
Sep16	1.9	-1.5	-8.1	-2.4
Oct16	5.9	1.2	-3.6	-1.1
Nov16	-0.9	-3.2	-4.1	-4.3
Dec16	1.2	1.4	-3.2	-3.0

My portfolio loss widened in the following months until it reached the highest 16% YTD loss in end of April 2016, contributed by heavy fall in Gtronic and Inari's share price.

Since then, it recovered slowly mainly due to good gain in KESM and AWC.

The year end loss of 3.16% is actually the best monthly performance throughout 2016 so I am still pleased with that.

The table below shows the stocks I held throughout the year of 2016, from the beginning to end of year 2016. It is clear that GTRONIC, LATITUD & COMPLETE are the main culprit for my overall loss in 2016.

Stock	End 2015	End 2016	G/L %
AWC	0.39	0.945	142.3
Bauto	2.14	2.13	-0.5
Complete	0.805	0.66	-18.0
Gtronic	6.50	3.48	-46.5
Hevea	1.62	1.50	-7.4
Inari	*3.66	3.32	-9.3
Latitude	7.39	4.90	-33.7
Matrix	2.49	2.42	-2.8
Notion	0.42	0.455	8.3
Scientex	*4.875	6.70	37.4

*adjusted price

I bought 5 stocks in year of 2016, which are KESM (Jan), TekSeng (Feb), Stock X (Jul), Geshen (Nov) & LeonFB (Nov).

Just like we see how smartphones boom into the scene, I feel that sophisticated vehicle electronics are a trend. That's one of the reasons I picked KESM, apart from it being undervalued at that time.

TekSeng has a good chance to grow its top and bottom lines from aggressive expansion in its solar cells manufacturing but it was hit by slight trend reversal in the industry.

I have sold all its shares at small loss after the news of retrenchment surfaced in Sep16.

Its subsequent Q3 result was bad, with substantial fall in solar segment revenue while a lot of money has been invested in this segment.

Anyway, I think TekSeng is oversold and is worth to watch closely.

As for Geshen, I have sold all its shares earlier in Feb16 and did not follow up this stock after that. Then a friend alerted me after the announcement of its FY16Q3 result. I think it's worth investing in at around RM1.65 so I bought its shares again.

For Leon Fuat, as mentioned before in previous post, I briefly studied and bought it after reading an analysis done by a respectable blogger.

Stock X has been on my radar since 2-3 years ago. I invested in it after its share price has dropped to the "buy level" I set years ago.

I didn't reveal this stock as it has very low liquidity. Furthermore, it's for very long term and I don't expect massive gain in short-mid term. It's not without risk.

This stock X ended year 2016 exactly the same price as when I bought them.

Below are the stocks in my portfolio at the start of 2017.

Stocks

STOCK X

AWC

BAUTO

COMPLETE

GESHEN

GTRONIC

HEVEA

INARI

INARI-WB

KESM

LATITUD

LEONFB

MATRIX

MATRIX-WA

NOTION

SCIENTEX

Initially I thought that year 2016 might not be a good year for local stock market. I tried not to look at the stock market often so that I can keep more cash.

It's true that KLCI dropped 3% in this year but there are still many investors making good gain.

Even though the broad market is weak, many stocks actually did very well include Thong Guan, Gadang, GKent, Inno, Airasia, AAX, Ann Joo, Masteel, CSCSteel just to name a few.

What to expect in year 2017?

Will property stage a rebound? Unlikely

Will MYR/USD fall to RM5? Unlikely too

Will crude oil price go above USD60? I don't know

Will it be a good year for plantation stocks? May be

How about tech & wood based stocks?

General election coming?

What's the Trump factor?

Now it's already February. Our stock market has started the year very well indeed to breach 1700 mark again.

How long can this positive trend persist?

Will there be a mini slump this year like the one in year 2015?

Anyway, my target is still the same, which is 30% gain in stock market every year.