Thursday, 5 December 2013

Furniture Stocks Draw Attention

I came to know about Latitude Tree just last week. In the early morning of that day, I still never heard of this stock, but later in that day just before the market closed, I decided to add it into my portfolio.

It is rather impulsive. I saw its share price spiked after a magnificent quarterly financial result.

Latitud is a Malaysia-based furniture manufacturing company founded & controlled by Taiwanese. It started off as a manufacturer of dining chairs in 1988. Now it has grown into a complete medium to high end dining & bedroom sets manufacturer. It also produces living room collection sets and some office furniture.


There are quite a number of furniture manufacturers listed in Bursa Malaysia. I pick 4 of them to do a very simple & superficial comparison. They are:
  • Latitude Tree
  • Homeritz
  • Lii Hen
  • Poh Huat
* The information, figures, calculation & opinion provided below might not be accurate or true. Please do own research if in doubt.

Products

Company Products
Latitude Wooden furniture
Homeritz Upholstered furniture
Lii Hen Wooden furniture
Poh Huat Wooden furniture

Homeritz is different from all 3 others as it designs and manufactures upholstered home furniture such as leather and fabric-based sofas, dining chairs, bed frames etc. It also has its own brand Eritz since 2009.

The other 3 companies design and manufacture wood-based furniture. Both Latitude & Lii Hen concentrate on home furniture but Poh Huat manufactures both home & office furniture.


Market

All 4 companies export majority of their products to overseas which include the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Australasia & South Africa. 

Latitud exports 99% of its products, in which 92% are exported to the United States (FY2013). The rest are to Canada, Europe, Australia, South Affrica & Middle East. I think it still has a lot of room to expand its presence worldwide.

The other 3 companies claim that they export to more than 50 countries worldwide.

Homeritz's major export destination is Europe, which comprises 41% in FY2011. United States is Poh Huat's biggest export country (?%) while export to the Americas (North & South) makes up 77% of Lii Hen's revenue in 2013.


Facilitiy

Latitude has 3 factories in Malaysia, 2 in Vietnam & 1 in Thailand.

Homeritz & Lii Hen both have 5 factories each in Johor.

Poh Huat has 2 factories in Vietnam, while others in Malaysia, China & South Africa.

Latitude might be less affected by the effect of minimum wages and increased electricity tariff in Malaysia, as its mainly concentrates its production in Vietnam, while scaling down its Malaysia operation.


Market Capitalization


Latitude Homeritz Lii Hen Poh Huat
Share price 1.74 0.56 1.64 0.85
M/Cap (mil) 169.1 112.0 98.4 96.4

Latitude has biggest market cap followed by Homeritz.


Financial Performance

RM mil Latitude Homeritz Lii Hen Poh Huat
Revenue 493.7 112.9 346.5 392.0
PAT 24.4 15.1 21.3 15.2
Gross margin% 14.4 16.9@ 15.4 13.4

*Latitude FY2013 (end June13)
*Homeritz FY2013 (end Aug 13)
*LiiHen FY2012 (end Dec12)
*Poh Huat FY2012 (end Oct12)

@ Operating margin

Latitude sells more and earns more compared to others. However, Homeritz has the best gross margin even though its revenue is the lowest.

For latest financial result,

Latitude and Homeritz break previous years' earning record. Lii Hen & Poh Huat's 9MFY13 revenue & PAT are lower YoY but there is a special one-off loss for Poh Huat.


Balance Sheet

RM mil Latitude Homeritz Lii Hen Poh Huat
Total Asset 478.6 103.8 190.4 243.3
Total Liab 179.3 16.5 46.8 94.5
Cash 112.5 34.7 40.4 30.2
Borrowings 91.2 2.7 17.6 33.4





ROE (%) 10.5 20.2 15.9 10.7
D/E ratio Net cash Net cash Net cash 0.02

Almost all are in a net cash position.

Homeritz has the best ROE, while Latitude has the lowest ROE but still not too bad above 10%.


Dividend


Latitude Homeritz Lii Hen Poh Huat
Share price 1.74 0.56 1.64 0.85
Dividend (sen) 6.3 3.0 12.0 2.0
Div Yield % 3.6 5.4 7.3 2.4
Div Payout % 25.0 40.8 33.8 16.0

*Share price at 4th Dec 2013 close
*Base on previous full financial year total dividend

Homeritz & Lii Hen are more generous in their dividend payout. At current share price, Lii Hen has the best dividend yield, followed by Homeritz, Latitude and Poh Huat.


Value


Latitude Homeritz Lii Hen Poh Huat
Share price 1.74 0.56 1.64 0.85
EPS (sen) 25.07 7.56 35.5 14.04
PE 6.9 7.4 4.6 6.1
NTA 2.57 0.41 2.39 1.37
P/B 0.68 1.36 0.69 0.62

*EPS base on last full financial year earning

All 4 stocks have relatively low PE ratio. This shows that the furniture stocks are not popular and perhaps overlooked.

Due to recent spike in share price, Latitude's PE ratio has gone up from 5.3x to 6.9x. Lii Hen has a very low PE but it is anticipated that its upcoming FY2013 profit will be lower. All except Homeritz are trading below their book value.

       Homeritz's dining set

Out of all of these 4 companies, Homeritz stands out with best gross margin, best ROE, best dividend payout ratio, decent dividend yield and its recent financial results are good. That's why it's the "most expensive" one here.

As all 4 companies are export-orientated, I think they will have good time ahead as the US and Europe are slowly coming out from recession. US house sale seems to recover thus there will be more demand for furniture. The expected strengthening of US dollar will also improve exporters' earnings to a certain extent.

For me, I think Latitude is the best bet in furniture manufacturing, mainly because of its future earning prospect and low projected PE.

       Latitude's bedroom set

Latitude's latest FY14Q1 result records a 27% and 62% increase in revenue and net profit YoY, due to higher orders, production and sales, while the USD has strengthened only 3.6% between these two periods. Its FY14Q1 net profit already makes up 60% of FY2013 full year net profit.


RM mil FY14Q1 FY13Q4 FY13Q1
Revenue 177.1 124.4 139.7
PBT 20.7 9.4 12.2
PBT% 11.7 7.6 8.7
PAT 14.6 5.9 9.0




MAS Rev 28.9 23.2 29.2
MAS PBT 1.2 -1.0 0.8
VIET Rev 142.2 96.1 106.3
VIET PBT 20.0 12.0 11.7
THAI Rev 6.0 5.2 4.2
THAI PBT 0.02 -0.5 -0.2


In FY2013, there is an increase in monthly production capacity of a factory in Vietnam by approximately USD1.0mil. I am keen to know what is the utilization rate of its overall production capacity and its future plan of capex.

In early 2013, Latitude has proposed to acquire all the subsidiaries of Latitude Tree International Group Ltd (LTIGL) for SGD48.75mil, which includes 99.99% of share capital of Latitude Tree Vietnam Joint Stock Company. Operation in Vietnam (under LTIGL) contributes 100% of Latitude's profit in FY2013 as operation in both Malaysia & Thailand suffer minor loss.

Currently Latitude Tree holds the shares of Vietnam operation indirectly through 77.6% owned LTIGL. Once the corporate exercise is completed, Latitude Tree will directly own 99.99% of its most profitable Vietnam operation. 

The net profit attributed to non-controlling interest for FY2013 amounted to RM7.68mil, compared to RM24.37 net profit for owners of the parent. If both are combined later, its net profit might be 32% more.

For recent FY14Q1, PBT from Vietnam operation increases as much as 70% both QoQ and YoY to RM20mil. To add icing on top, operation in Malaysia turns profitable in this quarter after scaling down of its operation.

Latitude will only need to pay SGD2.3mil cash for the acquisition, the balance of SGD46.4mil will be settled by way of set-off against the capital due to be returned to Latitude Tree. I actually don't understand what it really means, but it seems like Latitude does not need to borrow or deplete its cash substantially, or do share placement to complete the acquisition.

The proposed acquisition is expected to be completed before 31 Dec 2013.

       Latitude's dining set

As Latitud's business is moderately affected by seasonality, one would expect its Q3 & Q4 results (Jan-Jun) to be weaker. If LTIGL acquisition is completed in Q2, then Q3 & Q4 result might be good due to full contribution from Vietnam operation.

My personal estimation of Latitude's FY2014 PAT is RM40mil (64% increase from FY2013). This will give it an EPS of 41sen base on 97.2mil shares. Thus, my own target price for Latitude is RM3.30, if we give it a PE ratio of 8x. 

Anyway, I think Latitude's FY2014 net profit has a good chance to exceed RM40mil. Next quarter's result (FY14Q2) will be vital to determine whether to top up the shares.

At current price of RM1.7x, Latitude still looks quite cheap to me.

Both Latitude & Homeritz are perhaps worth to invest in, as both are good and manufacture different types of home furniture.

Last but not least, in Latitude's FY2013 annual report just released last week, Cold Eye Fong SiLing appears to be its no.12 largest shareholder at 1.4%. In FY2012, his name does not appear in the Top 30 largest shareholders list.

Wednesday, 4 December 2013

Surprise Dividend by Tropicana

Tropicana FY13Q3 Financial Result

TROP FY13Q3 FY13Q2 FY13Q1 FY12Q4 FY12Q3 FY12Q2
Revenue 363.4 362.1 305.3 234.1 161.1 117.1
Gross Profit 130.2 117.7 130.7 98.1 78.4 53.4
Other Income 9.0 14.6 1.9 33.5 65.0 136.1
Finance Cost 27.7 15.6 16.5 13.9 8.5 4.7
PBT 49.3 62.3 66.8 60.8 80.1 58.7
PBT% 13.6 17.2 21.9 26.0 49.7 50.1
PAT 23.7 38.3 43.8 60.2 57.8 38.8







P/Dev Rev 269.2 312.4 270.1 210.6 133.9 106.7
P/Dev PBT 31.3 45.6 64.2 32.9 16.6 19.6
P/Inv Rev 36.8 33.9 35.1 21.7 26.5 10.4
P/Inv PBT 19.9 25.5 14.0 25.0 66.1 46.2
Inv Rev 57.5 15.8 0.0 1.8 0.7 0.0
Inv PBT -1.8 -8.8 -11.4 2.9 -2.6 -7.1







Total Equity 2345.5 2336.7 2174.5 2061.1 1662.2 1074.3
Total Assets 5045.4 4990.5 4667.1 4518.4 3982.9 2659.5
T/Receivables 236.0 214.9 101.2 103.5 52.3 70.3
Prop dev cost 370.3 412.8 517.1 417.2 387.2 378.1
Inventories 68.8 73.4 30.4 20.3 20.4 18.1
Cash 333.6 372.0 282.9 213.7 155.8 130.0







Total Liab 2520.3 2477.8 2362.0 2329.6 2188.0 1455.3
T/Payables 226.8 205.3 178.1 201.5 165.5 150.5
Oth/Payables 152.4 161.1 132.5 129.4 351.8 86.8
ST Borrow 315.2 298.2 240.2 223.9 302.3 180.6
LT Borrow 1613.6 1562.6 1610.9 1642.1 1188.6 855.5







Net CF 145.4 139.2 59.0 86.4 36.3 10.8
Operation -98.4 -120.6 -94.7 -16.6 334.8 6.7
LD gain 60.4 60.4 58.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
FV gain 12.1 12.1 0.0 112.1 98.7 132.3
Investment 32.3 106.0 105.6 -894.9 -615.8 -42.3
Proceeds LD 149.0 149.0 126.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financing 211.5 153.8 48.1 997.9 363.4 46.4







EPS 2.20 4.31 5.50 8.31 12.55 8.42
NAS 2.12 2.45 2.54 2.60 3.61 2.33
D/E Ratio 0.68 0.64 0.72 0.80 0.80 0.84

LD gain = gain on disposal of land held for property development
FV gain = gain for fair value adjustment of investment properties
Proceeds LD = proceeds from disposal of land held for property development


I find Tropicana's financial report very complicated, and need more time to digest. Of course I won't understand all of them.

Since the assets injection into the company, Tropicana's results have been "affected" heavily by land disposal gain & fair value adjustment gain on investment properties.

For current FY13Q3, Tropicana's revenue stands at all-time high of RM363.4mil, which is a substantial increase of 126% YoY but only a marginal 0.4% increase QoQ.

Its overall PBT & PAT are non-comparable as there are significant other incomes included such as land sales and fair value gain almost in every quarters.

In term of gross profit (purely from property development and investment), Tropicana registers an 109% increase from RM181.4mil (9M12) to RM378.6mil (9M13). This shows that its core business is growing.

For solely property development activity for the cumulative first 9 months period, revenue increases 145% from RM348.3mil to RM851.7mil, while PBT increases 185% from RM49.5mil to RM141.1mil compared to preceding corresponding year.

This set of result is amazing to me. The only little set back is that the property development contribution for FY13Q3 is significantly lower compared to previous 2 preceding quarters.

Current quarter's net profit of RM23.7mil is the lowest in the previous 6 quarters due to lack of land sales and fair value gain.

However, I think its next quarter result from property development should be better in view of strong property sales in 2HFY13. The ground-breaking of its Penang World City development has just taken place last week.

       Penang World City

Anyway, Tropicana's balance sheet remains tight, as it continues to borrow from banks.

For 9MFY13, Tropicana has paid a total finance cost of RM59.8mil, which can represent a whole year profit of some small developers.

What is surprising to most is, Tropicana still manage to give an interim dividend of 4.5sen (less tax) for its FY2013. This is the first interim dividend given at this time from Tropicana/Dijaya. However, it is not sure whether it will give a final dividend later.

Perhaps Tropicana's management is very confident with its de-gearing exercise. It has lots of assets. Although the deal with CMMT fell through, Tropicana might have secured other interested buyers for its investment properties. The encouraging sales of recent property launches might help it greatly.

Tropicana achieves record sales of RM1.85bil in 9MFY13 and its unbilled sales is at an all time high of RM2.2bil in end of September. It has a potential future GDV of RM79.5bil from its undeveloped 2,178 acres of landbank.

The proposed private placement of 10% should be completed by the first quarter of 2014, that means more equity but further earning dilution.

I hope Tropicana can achieve a net profit of RM150mil in its full FY2013, which is slightly lower compared to FY2012. If this is achieved, its projected EPS will be 13.6sen. As it has a market cap of RM1.5bil, I will give it a target PE ratio of 12x. Thus, my short term target price will be RM1.63. 

Tropicana's share price seems to find its bottom after hitting a low at RM1.24. Currently it is trading at RM1.36.

Base on several reasons, I think it is not the time for me to buy more shares to average down Tropicana.

Nevertheless, I still haven't lose all the confidence in Tropicana. So, it is neither a sell.

Monday, 2 December 2013

Back To Square One

From the very beginning, selling shares is always the toughest for me, even though the selling criteria are in place.

When the shares are loss-making, I am reluctant to realize the loss.

When the shares are profit-making, I hope to keep longer for more gain.

When the shares hit my target price, I am still not keen to sell if it gives good dividend and has good prospect ahead.

However, making a decision to buy shares is as easy as ABC.

That's why I still don't have cash reserve in my share investment portfolio.

I know that falling in love with the shares is unwise. So I sold the shares in my new portfolio for the first time in early Nov13.

It is better to keep some cash as the QE tapering concern is looming on the horizon.




Looking at my shares portfolio, some are generating good gain, some do not move much and one in loss. 

Finally, I decided to sell part of my Globetronics shares, rather reluctantly at RM3.06 because it is the only one that is very close to my own target price. I should have sold all but I didn't. I still want to be part of this great company.

After I sold the shares, MIDF gave Gtronic a target price of RM4.19. Not too long after this, Affin gave a target price of RM3.50. The more important thing is, Gtronics CEO told StarBiz that the company has secured substantial orders for its sensors and LED chips.

Perhaps I should sell those loss-maker and non-movers...

With the cash after the sale of Gtronic shares, I quickly bought some Matrix shares as planned. I am happy to keep the little cash left as reserve until I met Latitude Tree.

All back to square one again.

My Portfolio Nov13

Summary for November 2013

November 2013
Numbers of stocks 9
Cash/Share ratio 0
Share Bought Matrix @ 2.90 (add)

Latitud @ 1.49 (new)
Share Sold Gtronic @ 3.06 (part)


Overall (Jul-Nov)
Unrealized Gain (%) 51.7




Stock Portfolio @ End Nov13

Core Portfolio
Stocks Average Latest G/L (%)
TAMBUN 0.77 1.42 84.4

Satellite Portfolio
Stocks Average Latest G/L (%)
GTRONIC 2.43 3.15 29.6
INARI 0.73 1.54 111.0
LATITUD 1.49 1.55 4.0
MATRIX 2.86 3.22 11.8
PANTECH 0.98 0.99 1.0
SCIENTEX 5.47 5.61 2.6
TAMBUN-WA free 0.81 n/a
TROP 1.89 1.34 -29.1
YOCB 0.69 0.87 26.1


Comment:

  • Fail to achieve cash:share ratio of 1:10
  • Sold some Gtronic shares in early Nov due to high PE with an aim to keep cash
  • Bought some Matrix shares in early Nov as planned due to low PE
  • Bought little Latitude Tree shares in end of Nov rather impulsively, due to low projected PE. As a result, cash:share ratio remains at 0

Plan:
  • May sell more shares at high PE to realize gain
  • May buy more Latitud or average down Tropicana